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Michael Reilly edited this page Feb 5, 2019 · 37 revisions

Goals

  • Get some different outputs

Adjusters

We can implement changing preferences in a few ways (most useful first):

  • We can change the price shifters to make housing more expensive in the areas we want to shift housing preference toward: Do this by changing price shifters table in /Data
  • We can modify the coefficients on the the hedonic models so that prices are higher in areas we want to shift the housing OR firms preferences toward: Do this by manually decreasing or increasing the coefficient values in the model configuration tables
  • We can add large projects to the Development Projects list that shift growth to those locations
  • We can modify the coefficients in the demand side models (i.e., hh and employment Location Choice Models)

HH

  • prox to jobs and central employment concentrations in hlcm (currently attractors for lower income and repellent for higher)

residential prices

  • dis to BART and central employment concentrations

EMP

  • prox to same-sector jobs and employment concentrations in elcm (currently attractor and mixed)

Comm prices

  • office: distance to best BART and distance to central employment concentrations (currently both negative)

PBA40 for comparison

  • 2015 STATIC HH: 39/27/20/13; EMP:
  • HH pct of growth: 52/22/15/12 AND EMP: 58/24/14/4

Clean and Green (Scenario 1)

  • CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 56/20/15/9 AND % EMP GROWTH 75/14/05/06 [OLD LOGSUMS: HH GROWTH 60/16/12/11 AND % EMP GROWTH 73/14/06/07]
  • CURRENT MODS: made dev proj more like 3, halved importance of regional dis in nrh, office near, lrt [halved bart1, zeroed out stanford, halved emb again] also elcm
  • OVERALL: more HHs in big 3/core, more emp in core/suburbs/exurbs)
  • 4.04m HHs (so 610K more units)
  • SLR 1ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
  • Greater pref for urban housing: shift lc vars inward and toward bart; price shift eastbay; add all opp sites
  • Greater pref for dispersed employment centers: shift emp lc vars outward and less clustered; manual conversion of outer malls to office
  • Telecommute 30%: take jobs out of control totals
  • Ecommerce 50% (so five times today): shift retail jobs down; increase logistics/tech; shift retail rents down; add logistics at malls?
  • AV 95% (BUT with a lot of sharing): dealt with by expanding nearby urban for super TNC like landscape
  • HSR, ARail/Bus, freight drones: additional attraction to HSR for office and transit for all
  • Limited interregional

Rising Tides Falling Fortunes (close to baseline with less growth) (Scenario 2)

  • STATIC SHARES HH: 42/25/19/14
  • CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 55/14/17/15 AND % EMP GROWTH 106/-12/-06/13 [OLD LOGSUMS: HH GROWTH 66/12/10/12 AND % EMP GROWTH 105/-9/-02/07 (r16)]
  • OVERALL: more HHs in Big3/core
  • 3.20m HHs (so 230K fewer units)
  • SLR 3ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
  • Greater pref for urban housing: shift lc vars inward and toward bart; price shift SF, eastbay
  • Telecommute 15%: take jobs out of control totals
  • Ecommerce 20% (so two times today)
  • AV 10%
  • Abuses

Back to the Future (Scenario 5)

  • CURRENT BEST RUN % HH GROWTH 57/17/14/11 AND % EMP GROWTH 62/29/05/04 (r8)
  • CURRENT MODS: dropped most central res opp sites in dev proj
  • OVERALL: more HHs in suburbs/exurbs, more emp in big3/SV/Berkeley/Peninsula
  • 4.77m HHs (PBA40 was 3.43m by 2040, so 1.34m more units)
  • SLR 2ft, Earthquake 2035: Hazards Models
  • Greater pref for dispersed housing: shift lc vars outward and away from bart; price shift concord, outer SV, northbay; manual conversion of outer malls to MFD_
  • Greater pref for urban employment: shift emp lc vars inward and more clustered; shift price vars if needed
  • Ecommerce 50% (so five times today): shift retail jobs down; increase logistics/tech; shift retail rents down; add logistics at malls?
  • AV 75% (BUT little sharing): dealt with in the housing and job vars
  • Hyperloops, Abuses, drones, helicoptors
  • Higher interregional
  • 240K annual immigrants to BA