HazardsChanges

We may represent the type of natural disasters in some scenarios: earthquakes, SLR/heightened flood regime, and wildfires. All of these can be run (optionally) at the start/end of each 5-year period.

For SLR Model: Two freeform polygons represent two zones: permanently inundated by 2050 and increased flood probabilities out to 2050. In the former zone, each parcel has a 12.5% chance of being inundated during each 5 year period. When inundated, all buildings on the parcel are removed, the parcel is marked nodev (even if it had no buildings), and residents and jobs are moved out (and all this is counted). When, we need to think through the reaction. These would have lower quality and or higher upkeep/insurance costs. Some would be abandoned (if they weren't worth it over all). Would price in US shift up or down?

For Earthquakes: A set of probabilities is entered at the zonal level (by default this would be by Census Tract--do we want to require pre-conversion to TAZ?). The probabilities reflect the likelihood that housing in given class within that zone is destroyed permanently or made temporarily uninhabitable. The classes will be existing structures vs post 2010 structures at a minimum but could include other attributes such as age, type, height, and a dummy indicating retrofit status (as determined by an external base year variable and/or the policy below). We want to remove destroyed buildings and displace their residents (and count both of these). We want to remove damaged structures from the market for 5 years, displace their residents, and perhaps increase their prices as they return to market (and count it all). Potential policies include probabilistically tagging buildings as retrofitted within particular jurisdictions, fees on rebuilding, perhaps accounts.

For Wildfires: A freeform polygon represents the fire extent. Within this area all structures are destroyed and inhabitants displaced (and counted). BUT, with high insurance coverage do we want to randomly set some structures to be temporarily off market and get their same residents back? (Do we want this insurance model to cover all hazards at lower rates though insurance is much rarer for the two above?)

Additions to UrbanSim:

• [Hazard Model]: organizes and takes inputs
• Hazard Inputs: a table and layers
• [Permanent Damage Function]
• [Temporary Damage Function]
• [Return to Market Function]: change price of new dwelling
• Insurance Model: just simple sprinkling at rates for different hazards
• [Resilience Investment Model]: random probability by juris/type/age/price that a building is retrofitted or otherwise improved to change its damage prob
• Abandonment Model: do we want a model to remove older, less valuable buildings randomly (this could also help with decline scenarios)