diff --git a/data/Bloom2009.csv b/data/Bloom2009.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b256bfa --- /dev/null +++ b/data/Bloom2009.csv @@ -0,0 +1,559 @@ +YEAR,MONTH,IPM,EMPM,HOURSM,CPI,WAGE,FFR,STOCK,VOLATBL +1962,7,25.1572,15522,40.5,30.22,2.27,2.71,54.75,19.57153 +1962,8,25.2106,15517,40.5,30.28,2.28,2.93,58.23,15.79428 +1962,9,25.3973,15568,40.5,30.42,2.28,2.9,59.12,18.31485 +1962,10,25.344,15569,40.3,30.38,2.29,2.9,56.27,25.96716 +1962,11,25.5574,15530,40.5,30.38,2.29,2.94,56.52,16.76587 +1962,12,25.5841,15520,40.3,30.38,2.29,2.93,62.26,14.67781 +1963,1,25.7441,15545,40.5,30.44,2.3,2.92,63.1,14.83574 +1963,2,25.9576,15542,40.5,30.48,2.31,3,66.31,13.55427 +1963,3,26.1176,15564,40.5,30.51,2.32,2.98,64.29,12.36615 +1963,4,26.4645,15602,40.5,30.48,2.32,2.9,66.57,11.66211 +1963,5,26.7046,15641,40.5,30.51,2.33,3,69.8,12.24225 +1963,6,26.7846,15624,40.7,30.61,2.34,2.99,70.8,12.04036 +1963,7,26.6779,15646,40.6,30.69,2.35,3.02,69.37,14.29669 +1963,8,26.8113,15644,40.6,30.75,2.34,3.49,69.13,11.4839 +1963,9,26.998,15674,40.6,30.72,2.36,3.48,72.5,13.0301 +1963,10,27.2381,15714,40.7,30.75,2.36,3.5,71.7,13.82035 +1963,11,27.3181,15675,40.7,30.78,2.37,3.48,74.01,28.66662 +1963,12,27.3181,15712,40.6,30.88,2.38,3.38,73.23,11.92661 +1964,1,27.5582,15715,40.1,30.94,2.38,3.48,75.02,10.68331 +1964,2,27.7183,15742,40.7,30.91,2.38,3.48,77.04,9.484376 +1964,3,27.7183,15770,40.6,30.94,2.38,3.43,77.8,10.17158 +1964,4,28.2252,15785,40.7,30.95,2.4,3.47,78.98,12.02079 +1964,5,28.3319,15812,40.8,30.98,2.4,3.5,79.46,11.84752 +1964,6,28.3852,15839,40.8,31.01,2.41,3.5,80.37,13.42248 +1964,7,28.6254,15887,40.8,31.02,2.41,3.42,81.69,11.22382 +1964,8,28.8121,15948,40.9,31.05,2.42,3.5,83.18,13.68989 +1964,9,28.9455,16073,40.9,31.08,2.44,3.45,81.83,10.51677 +1964,10,28.5187,15821,40.7,31.12,2.4,3.36,84.18,11.09247 +1964,11,29.3723,16096,41,31.21,2.42,3.52,84.86,12.00871 +1964,12,29.9059,16176,41.2,31.25,2.44,3.85,84.42,12.87308 +1965,1,30.2527,16245,41.3,31.28,2.45,3.9,84.75,10.08941 +1965,2,30.4395,16291,41.3,31.28,2.46,3.98,87.56,13.63928 +1965,3,30.813,16353,41.3,31.31,2.47,4.04,87.43,10.38665 +1965,4,30.9997,16418,41.2,31.38,2.47,4.09,86.16,10.17376 +1965,5,31.2398,16477,41.3,31.48,2.49,4.1,89.11,13.10824 +1965,6,31.4265,16554,41.2,31.61,2.49,4.04,88.42,20.75682 +1965,7,31.9067,16669,41.2,31.58,2.49,4.09,84.12,14.42438 +1965,8,31.9334,16732,41.1,31.55,2.5,4.12,85.25,9.706133 +1965,9,32.0135,16802,41.1,31.62,2.51,4.01,87.17,12.02344 +1965,10,32.2803,16864,41.2,31.65,2.52,4.08,89.96,10.89089 +1965,11,32.4136,16962,41.3,31.75,2.52,4.1,92.42,10.80169 +1965,12,32.9205,17051,41.3,31.85,2.53,4.32,91.61,12.5131 +1966,1,33.2406,17143,41.5,31.88,2.54,4.42,92.43,10.8483 +1966,2,33.4541,17288,41.7,32.08,2.56,4.6,92.88,12.93325 +1966,3,33.9076,17400,41.6,32.18,2.56,4.65,91.22,16.85739 +1966,4,34.0943,17517,41.8,32.28,2.58,4.67,89.23,13.02554 +1966,5,34.3344,17625,41.5,32.35,2.58,4.9,91.06,21.26844 +1966,6,34.4945,17733,41.4,32.38,2.58,5.17,86.13,14.2204 +1966,7,34.6545,17760,41.2,32.45,2.6,5.3,84.74,17.79578 +1966,8,34.7346,17882,41.4,32.65,2.61,5.53,83.5,24.37903 +1966,9,35.0014,17886,41.2,32.75,2.63,5.4,77.1,20.57951 +1966,10,35.3482,17956,41.3,32.85,2.64,5.53,76.56,23.92209 +1966,11,34.9747,17981,41.2,32.88,2.65,5.76,80.2,16.53945 +1966,12,35.1348,17998,40.9,32.92,2.64,5.4,80.45,15.29284 +1967,1,35.2396,18033,41.1,32.9,2.65,4.94,80.33,14.02799 +1967,2,34.8435,17978,40.4,33,2.67,5,86.61,13.98899 +1967,3,34.6673,17940,40.5,33,2.67,4.53,86.78,13.71145 +1967,4,34.8929,17878,40.4,33.1,2.68,4.05,90.2,16.42035 +1967,5,34.6454,17832,40.4,33.1,2.69,3.94,94.01,15.91752 +1967,6,34.5961,17812,40.4,33.3,2.69,3.98,89.08,17.51389 +1967,7,34.4559,17784,40.5,33.4,2.71,3.79,90.64,10.57709 +1967,8,35.1026,17905,40.6,33.5,2.73,3.9,94.75,12.23167 +1967,9,35.0965,17794,40.6,33.6,2.73,3.99,93.64,12.83509 +1967,10,35.3893,17800,40.6,33.7,2.74,3.88,96.71,13.25609 +1967,11,36.0368,17985,40.6,33.9,2.75,4.13,93.3,17.47911 +1967,12,36.4014,18025,40.7,34,2.77,4.51,94,12.01956 +1968,1,36.3205,18040,40.4,34.1,2.81,4.6,96.47,13.27939 +1968,2,36.4804,18054,40.8,34.2,2.82,4.71,92.24,16.56766 +1968,3,36.5383,18067,40.8,34.3,2.84,5.05,89.36,19.547 +1968,4,36.5741,18131,40.3,34.4,2.85,5.76,91.11,19.54018 +1968,5,37.0362,18190,40.9,34.5,2.87,6.11,97.46,13.1569 +1968,6,37.1143,18228,40.9,34.7,2.88,6.07,98.72,15.32603 +1968,7,37.0014,18265,40.8,34.9,2.89,6.02,99.58,17.12225 +1968,8,37.1836,18254,40.7,35,2.89,6.03,97.74,13.20537 +1968,9,37.2037,18252,40.9,35.1,2.92,5.78,98.86,11.91791 +1968,10,37.4378,18293,41,35.3,2.94,5.91,102.67,12.61276 +1968,11,37.9697,18346,40.9,35.4,2.96,5.82,103.41,10.92953 +1968,12,37.9732,18410,40.7,35.6,2.97,6.02,108.37,12.4545 +1969,1,38.2019,18432,40.8,35.7,2.99,6.3,103.86,14.90967 +1969,2,38.5106,18502,40.4,35.8,3,6.61,103.01,14.80055 +1969,3,38.8045,18558,40.8,36.1,3.01,6.79,98.13,14.49689 +1969,4,38.6423,18554,41,36.3,3.03,7.41,101.51,14.66566 +1969,5,38.4867,18588,40.7,36.4,3.04,8.67,103.69,13.93685 +1969,6,38.7205,18640,40.7,36.6,3.05,8.9,103.46,15.06734 +1969,7,39.0018,18642,40.6,36.8,3.08,8.61,97.71,22.62956 +1969,8,39.0558,18767,40.6,36.9,3.1,9.19,91.92,16.59047 +1969,9,39.0026,18620,40.6,37.1,3.12,9.15,95.51,16.89241 +1969,10,39.0421,18613,40.5,37.3,3.13,9,93.12,15.17557 +1969,11,38.6356,18467,40.5,37.5,3.14,8.85,97.12,14.10094 +1969,12,38.4288,18485,40.6,37.7,3.15,8.97,93.81,18.09973 +1970,1,37.5895,18424,40.4,37.9,3.16,8.98,92.06,16.27595 +1970,2,37.6188,18361,40.2,38.1,3.17,8.98,85.02,17.67796 +1970,3,37.5113,18360,40.1,38.3,3.19,7.76,89.5,17.45393 +1970,4,37.3777,18207,39.8,38.5,3.19,8.1,89.63,18.3914 +1970,5,37.2905,18029,39.8,38.6,3.22,7.94,81.52,37.65264 +1970,6,37.1781,17930,39.8,38.8,3.24,7.6,76.55,23.776 +1970,7,37.2935,17877,40,38.9,3.25,7.21,72.72,21.3723 +1970,8,37.04,17779,39.8,39,3.26,6.61,78.05,21.37721 +1970,9,36.7282,17692,39.6,39.2,3.29,6.29,81.52,17.56994 +1970,10,35.9074,17173,39.5,39.4,3.26,6.2,84.3,17.55702 +1970,11,35.6879,17024,39.5,39.6,3.26,5.6,83.25,16.55812 +1970,12,36.6282,17309,39.5,39.8,3.32,4.9,87.2,13.35503 +1971,1,36.9383,17280,39.9,39.9,3.36,4.14,92.15,14.31425 +1971,2,36.9559,17216,39.7,39.9,3.39,3.72,95.88,14.33541 +1971,3,36.879,17154,39.8,40,3.39,3.71,96.75,13.5001 +1971,4,37.0726,17149,39.9,40.1,3.41,4.15,100.31,12.05732 +1971,5,37.3223,17225,40,40.3,3.43,4.63,103.95,14.14517 +1971,6,37.4162,17139,39.9,40.5,3.45,4.91,99.63,16.88305 +1971,7,37.4797,17126,40,40.6,3.46,5.31,99.16,13.8336 +1971,8,37.0359,17115,39.8,40.7,3.48,5.56,95.58,23.38387 +1971,9,37.7855,17154,39.7,40.8,3.48,5.55,99.03,14.63665 +1971,10,38.3471,17126,39.9,40.9,3.5,5.2,98.34,14.91797 +1971,11,38.4887,17166,40,41,3.49,4.91,94.23,21.55592 +1971,12,38.8461,17202,40.2,41.1,3.55,4.14,93.99,16.57739 +1972,1,39.831,17283,40.2,41.2,3.57,3.5,102.09,14.06957 +1972,2,40.1086,17361,40.4,41.4,3.61,3.29,103.94,12.16289 +1972,3,40.4046,17447,40.4,41.4,3.63,3.83,106.57,14.51983 +1972,4,40.8546,17508,40.5,41.5,3.65,4.17,107.2,13.4985 +1972,5,40.9281,17602,40.5,41.6,3.67,4.27,107.67,15.95201 +1972,6,41.1071,17641,40.6,41.7,3.68,4.46,109.53,12.84171 +1972,7,41.1502,17556,40.5,41.8,3.69,4.55,107.14,15.26967 +1972,8,41.6673,17741,40.6,41.9,3.73,4.8,107.39,14.35764 +1972,9,41.9916,17774,40.6,42.1,3.75,4.87,111.09,14.29333 +1972,10,42.6008,17893,40.7,42.2,3.78,5.04,110.55,16.59878 +1972,11,43.1427,18005,40.7,42.4,3.79,5.06,111.58,13.60065 +1972,12,43.7113,18158,40.6,42.5,3.83,5.33,116.67,14.95535 +1973,1,43.9944,18276,40.4,42.7,3.86,5.94,118.06,14.392 +1973,2,44.7467,18410,40.9,43,3.87,6.58,116.03,19.23639 +1973,3,44.8032,18493,40.9,43.4,3.88,7.09,111.68,20.08661 +1973,4,44.729,18530,40.8,43.7,3.91,7.12,111.52,20.16522 +1973,5,45.0355,18564,40.7,43.9,3.93,7.84,106.97,25.68426 +1973,6,45.0339,18606,40.7,44.2,3.95,8.49,104.95,22.87724 +1973,7,45.244,18598,40.7,44.2,3.98,10.4,104.1,21.51271 +1973,8,45.1104,18629,40.6,45,4,10.5,108.17,17.20023 +1973,9,45.5098,18609,40.7,45.2,4.03,10.78,104.25,17.32453 +1973,10,45.8764,18702,40.6,45.6,4.05,10.01,108.43,19.04639 +1973,11,46.2132,18773,40.6,45.9,4.07,10.03,108.29,28.7514 +1973,12,46.2599,18820,40.6,46.3,4.09,9.95,95.83,34.14703 +1974,1,45.8736,18788,40.5,46.8,4.1,9.65,97.55,27.44098 +1974,2,45.7109,18727,40.4,47.3,4.13,8.97,96.57,22.46808 +1974,3,45.6643,18700,40.4,47.8,4.15,9.35,96.22,20.9693 +1974,4,45.5016,18702,39.5,48.1,4.16,10.51,93.98,20.7668 +1974,5,45.7961,18688,40.3,48.6,4.25,11.31,90.31,22.22727 +1974,6,45.8368,18690,40.2,49,4.3,11.93,87.28,23.76803 +1974,7,45.754,18656,40.1,49.3,4.33,12.92,86,29.76729 +1974,8,45.4087,18570,40.2,49.9,4.38,12.01,79.31,29.1721 +1974,9,45.4469,18492,40,50.6,4.42,11.34,72.15,36.76284 +1974,10,45.1069,18364,40,51,4.48,10.06,63.54,38.3682 +1974,11,43.7602,18077,39.5,51.5,4.49,9.45,73.9,27.25384 +1974,12,41.8019,17693,39.3,51.9,4.52,8.53,69.8,28.23138 +1975,1,40.9682,17344,39.2,52.3,4.54,7.13,68.65,26.79767 +1975,2,39.7795,17004,38.9,52.6,4.58,6.24,76.98,22.98719 +1975,3,39.2651,16853,38.8,52.8,4.63,5.54,81.59,24.06182 +1975,4,39.1911,16759,39,53,4.63,5.49,83.36,22.64745 +1975,5,39.1988,16746,39,53.1,4.65,5.22,87.3,21.05433 +1975,6,39.5561,16690,39.2,53.5,4.68,5.55,91.32,18.95765 +1975,7,40.1429,16678,39.4,54,4.71,6.1,95.19,17.48154 +1975,8,40.5185,16824,39.7,54.2,4.75,6.14,88.75,23.58216 +1975,9,41.2039,16904,39.8,54.6,4.78,6.24,86.88,23.15969 +1975,10,41.407,16984,39.9,54.9,4.8,5.82,83.87,21.48322 +1975,11,41.5163,17025,39.9,55.3,4.83,5.22,89.04,16.8989 +1975,12,42.0615,17140,40.2,55.6,4.86,5.2,91.24,19.03715 +1976,1,42.6141,17287,40.3,55.8,4.9,4.87,90.19,19.53755 +1976,2,43.1856,17384,40.4,55.9,4.94,4.77,100.86,19.21735 +1976,3,43.2615,17470,40.2,56,4.98,4.84,99.71,18.25039 +1976,4,43.5702,17541,39.6,56.1,4.98,4.82,102.77,17.64472 +1976,5,43.8026,17513,40.3,56.4,5.04,5.29,101.64,17.4434 +1976,6,43.8196,17521,40.2,56.7,5.07,5.48,100.18,16.67445 +1976,7,44.1493,17524,40.3,57,5.11,5.31,104.28,14.05826 +1976,8,44.4444,17596,40.2,57.3,5.16,5.29,103.44,15.90588 +1976,9,44.5367,17665,40.2,57.6,5.2,5.25,102.91,16.51087 +1976,10,44.5727,17548,40,57.9,5.19,5.02,105.24,19.00707 +1976,11,45.1444,17682,40.1,58.1,5.25,4.95,102.9,18.44817 +1976,12,45.6188,17719,39.9,58.4,5.29,4.65,102.1,14.0253 +1977,1,45.4852,17803,39.4,58.7,5.35,4.61,107.46,14.67506 +1977,2,46.2844,17843,40.2,59.3,5.36,4.68,102.03,13.11272 +1977,3,46.9701,17941,40.3,59.6,5.4,4.69,99.82,15.30153 +1977,4,47.4783,18024,40.4,60,5.45,4.73,98.42,18.00981 +1977,5,47.8457,18107,40.5,60.2,5.49,5.35,98.44,15.14825 +1977,6,48.2363,18192,40.5,60.5,5.54,5.39,96.12,14.05657 +1977,7,48.2938,18259,40.4,60.8,5.58,5.42,100.48,15.36174 +1977,8,48.5681,18276,40.4,61.1,5.61,5.9,98.85,14.49299 +1977,9,48.6492,18334,40.4,61.3,5.65,6.14,96.77,14.08678 +1977,10,48.7907,18356,40.6,61.6,5.69,6.47,96.53,15.4536 +1977,11,48.8407,18419,40.5,62,5.72,6.51,92.19,19.63772 +1977,12,49.3868,18531,40.4,62.3,5.75,6.56,94.83,15.41305 +1978,1,48.6847,18593,39.5,62.7,5.83,6.7,95.1,15.99837 +1978,2,48.8342,18639,39.9,63,5.86,6.78,89.25,15.60337 +1978,3,49.6506,18699,40.5,63.4,5.88,6.79,87.04,14.94473 +1978,4,50.4589,18772,40.4,63.9,5.93,6.89,89.2,20.23512 +1978,5,50.6068,18848,40.4,64.5,5.96,7.36,96.83,17.58875 +1978,6,51.0322,18919,40.6,65,6.01,7.6,97.24,17.40951 +1978,7,50.9965,18951,40.6,65.5,6.06,7.81,95.53,16.2257 +1978,8,51.2368,19006,40.5,65.9,6.09,8.04,100.68,17.26683 +1978,9,51.4596,19068,40.5,66.5,6.15,8.45,103.29,17.77611 +1978,10,51.8744,19142,40.5,67.1,6.2,8.96,102.54,21.01977 +1978,11,52.3628,19257,40.6,67.5,6.26,9.76,94.13,26.52179 +1978,12,52.796,19334,40.5,67.9,6.31,10.03,95.01,21.51464 +1979,1,52.3444,19388,40.4,68.5,6.36,10.07,96.11,17.12151 +1979,2,52.5989,19409,40.5,69.2,6.4,10.06,99.93,16.53697 +1979,3,52.8522,19453,40.6,69.9,6.45,10.09,96.28,15.6912 +1979,4,52.0518,19450,39.3,70.6,6.43,10.01,101.56,15.63927 +1979,5,52.6839,19509,40.2,71.4,6.52,10.24,101.76,16.70802 +1979,6,52.7663,19553,40.2,72.2,6.56,10.29,99.08,14.42386 +1979,7,52.8126,19531,40.2,73,6.59,10.47,102.91,15.91037 +1979,8,52.1219,19406,40.1,73.7,6.63,10.94,103.81,13.49941 +1979,9,52.2387,19442,40.1,74.4,6.67,11.43,109.32,19.65791 +1979,10,52.4182,19390,40.2,75.2,6.71,13.77,109.19,22.983 +1979,11,52.2959,19299,40.1,76,6.74,13.18,101.82,20.21299 +1979,12,52.4613,19301,40.1,76.9,6.8,13.78,106.16,14.52916 +1980,1,52.6795,19282,40,78,6.82,13.82,107.94,21.09036 +1980,2,52.6408,19219,40.1,79,6.88,14.13,114.16,22.29192 +1980,3,52.2373,19217,39.9,80.1,6.95,17.19,113.66,29.25356 +1980,4,51.175,18973,39.8,80.9,6.97,17.61,102.09,24.92857 +1980,5,49.613,18726,39.3,81.7,7.02,10.98,106.29,20.00093 +1980,6,48.8525,18490,39.2,82.5,7.1,9.47,111.24,19.58319 +1980,7,48.4091,18276,39.1,82.6,7.16,9.03,114.24,18.43149 +1980,8,48.7531,18414,39.5,83.2,7.24,9.61,121.67,21.25709 +1980,9,49.5346,18445,39.6,83.9,7.3,10.87,122.38,24.68924 +1980,10,50.4223,18506,39.8,84.7,7.38,12.81,125.46,22.47449 +1980,11,51.3616,18601,39.9,85.6,7.47,15.85,127.47,23.15734 +1980,12,51.5113,18640,40.1,86.4,7.52,18.9,140.52,24.79517 +1981,1,51.3465,18639,40.1,87.2,7.58,19.08,135.76,20.30146 +1981,2,51.0121,18613,39.8,88,7.62,15.93,129.48,20.9195 +1981,3,51.2189,18647,40,88.6,7.68,14.7,131.27,21.85888 +1981,4,51.4687,18711,40.1,89.1,7.76,15.72,136,16.54795 +1981,5,51.7999,18766,40.2,89.7,7.81,18.52,132.81,17.24749 +1981,6,51.5588,18789,40,90.5,7.85,19.1,132.59,17.57244 +1981,7,51.6793,18785,39.9,91.5,7.89,19.04,131.21,17.64618 +1981,8,51.7522,18748,40,92.2,7.97,17.82,130.92,20.78476 +1981,9,51.4973,18712,39.6,93.1,8.03,15.87,122.79,24.4207 +1981,10,50.9867,18566,39.6,93.4,8.06,15.08,116.18,22.1293 +1981,11,50.4063,18409,39.4,93.8,8.08,13.31,122.35,19.97168 +1981,12,49.5789,18223,39.2,94.1,8.09,12.37,126.35,16.27392 +1982,1,48.4222,18047,37.3,94.4,8.26,13.22,122.55,24.5585 +1982,2,49.729,17981,39.6,94.7,8.21,14.78,119.81,21.55621 +1982,3,49.3544,17857,39.1,94.7,8.24,14.68,113.11,20.28457 +1982,4,49.0302,17683,39.1,95,8.28,14.94,111.96,18.53471 +1982,5,48.9344,17588,39.1,95.9,8.33,14.45,115.96,16.91389 +1982,6,48.8195,17430,39.2,97,8.37,14.15,111.97,19.70581 +1982,7,48.7633,17278,39.2,97.5,8.4,12.59,109.52,17.062 +1982,8,48.3549,17160,39,97.7,8.43,10.12,107.71,32.44156 +1982,9,48.1884,17074,39,97.7,8.45,10.31,119.52,22.75345 +1982,10,47.669,16853,38.9,98.1,8.44,9.71,120.4,32.82124 +1982,11,47.3471,16722,39,98,8.46,9.2,133.72,32.39594 +1982,12,47.1383,16690,39,97.7,8.49,8.95,138.56,23.57138 +1983,1,48.2593,16705,39.3,97.9,8.52,8.68,140.65,26.17457 +1983,2,48.2125,16706,39.3,98,8.59,8.51,145.29,22.46581 +1983,3,48.7081,16711,39.6,98.1,8.59,8.77,148.07,19.50488 +1983,4,49.2705,16794,39.7,98.8,8.61,8.8,152.92,18.65769 +1983,5,49.9197,16885,40,99.2,8.64,8.63,164.41,18.07747 +1983,6,50.311,16960,40.1,99.4,8.66,8.98,162.38,18.93436 +1983,7,51.0785,17059,40.3,99.8,8.71,9.37,168.11,23.15212 +1983,8,51.4776,17118,40.3,100.1,8.71,9.56,162.34,18.43162 +1983,9,52.4514,17255,40.6,100.4,8.76,9.45,164.4,17.72129 +1983,10,53.0681,17367,40.6,100.8,8.8,9.48,165.99,18.09288 +1983,11,53.2525,17479,40.6,101.1,8.84,9.34,163.55,16.52069 +1983,12,53.3941,17551,40.5,101.4,8.87,9.47,166.37,14.2712 +1984,1,54.3906,17630,40.6,102.1,8.91,9.56,164.93,16.22942 +1984,2,54.9807,17728,41.1,102.6,8.92,9.59,163.41,22.03639 +1984,3,55.2533,17806,40.7,102.9,8.96,9.91,157.06,18.92489 +1984,4,55.5523,17872,40.8,103.3,8.98,10.29,159.18,18.13723 +1984,5,55.7017,17916,40.7,103.5,8.99,10.32,160.05,16.02382 +1984,6,55.9578,17967,40.6,103.7,9.03,11.06,150.55,20.63055 +1984,7,56.2131,18013,40.6,104.1,9.05,11.23,153.16,16.80567 +1984,8,56.3311,18034,40.5,104.4,9.09,11.64,150.66,23.754 +1984,9,56.2239,18019,40.5,104.7,9.12,11.3,166.68,17.66277 +1984,10,56.4655,18024,40.5,105.1,9.15,9.99,166.1,18.40055 +1984,11,56.6528,18016,40.4,105.3,9.19,9.43,166.09,17.5582 +1984,12,56.8601,18023,40.5,105.5,9.22,8.38,163.58,18.4975 +1985,1,56.6599,18009,40.3,105.7,9.27,8.35,167.2,19.27373 +1985,2,56.4803,17966,40.1,106.3,9.29,8.5,179.63,16.7049 +1985,3,56.9496,17939,40.4,106.8,9.32,8.58,181.18,16.28348 +1985,4,56.7756,17886,40.5,107,9.35,8.27,180.66,14.03153 +1985,5,56.8463,17855,40.4,107.2,9.37,7.97,179.83,15.63059 +1985,6,56.9494,17819,40.5,107.5,9.39,7.53,189.55,15.88212 +1985,7,56.6279,17776,40.4,107.7,9.42,7.88,191.85,15.5221 +1985,8,56.9929,17756,40.6,107.9,9.43,7.9,190.92,14.86267 +1985,9,57.0597,17718,40.6,108.1,9.44,7.92,188.63,16.76492 +1985,10,56.9195,17708,40.7,108.5,9.46,7.99,182.06,16.14999 +1985,11,57.2913,17697,40.7,109,9.49,8.05,189.82,16.11351 +1985,12,57.5385,17693,40.9,109.5,9.55,8.27,202.17,18.34276 +1986,1,59.0989,17686,40.7,109.9,9.53,8.14,211.28,18.12136 +1986,2,58.7228,17663,40.7,109.7,9.56,7.86,211.78,20.62421 +1986,3,58.5634,17624,40.7,109.1,9.58,7.48,226.92,23.564 +1986,4,58.7892,17616,40.5,108.7,9.56,6.99,238.9,23.01546 +1986,5,58.8756,17593,40.7,109,9.59,6.85,235.52,18.89286 +1986,6,58.6855,17530,40.7,109.4,9.58,6.92,246.04,18.59809 +1986,7,59.0228,17497,40.6,109.5,9.6,6.56,250.67,19.63909 +1986,8,59.1646,17489,40.7,109.6,9.61,6.17,236.12,18.6381 +1986,9,59.2922,17498,40.7,110,9.6,5.89,252.93,22.70524 +1986,10,59.5219,17477,40.6,110.2,9.62,5.85,231.32,22.52391 +1986,11,59.8106,17472,40.7,110.4,9.64,6.04,243.97,18.63158 +1986,12,60.338,17478,40.8,110.8,9.66,6.91,249.22,19.75864 +1987,1,60.1708,17465,40.8,111.4,9.67,6.43,242.17,20.76667 +1987,2,61.0377,17499,41.2,111.8,9.69,6.1,274.08,23.44632 +1987,3,61.091,17507,41,112.2,9.71,6.13,284.17,21.83727 +1987,4,61.3967,17525,40.8,112.7,9.71,6.37,291.59,26.88143 +1987,5,61.8704,17542,41,113,9.73,6.85,286.99,25.4115 +1987,6,62.113,17537,40.9,113.5,9.74,6.73,290.12,21.62455 +1987,7,62.5448,17593,41,113.8,9.74,6.58,303.99,17.80091 +1987,8,62.8407,17630,40.9,114.3,9.8,6.73,318.62,20.84905 +1987,9,63.2219,17691,40.8,114.7,9.85,7.22,329.81,22.89381 +1987,10,64.2417,17729,41.1,115,9.84,7.29,321.83,40.79773 +1987,11,64.643,17775,41,115.4,9.87,6.69,251.73,49.4365 +1987,12,65.0161,17809,41,115.6,9.89,6.77,230.32,41.76409 +1988,1,64.8918,17790,41.1,116,9.91,6.83,247.1,38.3365 +1988,2,65.0026,17823,41.1,116.2,9.92,6.58,257.05,33.674 +1988,3,65.2145,17844,40.9,116.5,9.94,6.58,267.82,29.35696 +1988,4,65.7815,17874,41,117.2,9.99,6.87,258.89,27.405 +1988,5,65.6947,17892,41,117.5,10.02,7.09,261.36,25.71667 +1988,6,65.7821,17916,41.1,118,10.04,7.51,262.16,25.27091 +1988,7,65.8594,17926,41.1,118.5,10.05,7.75,273.5,23.644 +1988,8,65.9231,17891,40.9,119,10.07,8.01,272.03,23.70739 +1988,9,66.1456,17914,41,119.5,10.12,8.19,261.52,19.52429 +1988,10,66.5424,17966,41.1,119.9,10.16,8.3,271.89,20.4819 +1988,11,66.7329,18003,41.1,120.3,10.19,8.35,278.97,21.65905 +1988,12,67.0277,18025,40.9,120.7,10.2,8.76,273.68,17.75429 +1989,1,67.5219,18057,41.1,121.2,10.23,9.12,277.72,17.75809 +1989,2,66.8648,18055,41.2,121.6,10.26,9.36,297.47,18.31263 +1989,3,66.7725,18060,41.1,122.2,10.29,9.85,288.86,17.47545 +1989,4,66.8411,18055,41.1,123.1,10.28,9.84,294.87,16.8875 +1989,5,66.2891,18040,41,123.7,10.3,9.81,309.64,17.435 +1989,6,66.3862,18013,40.9,124.1,10.33,9.53,320.51,16.73227 +1989,7,65.6662,17980,40.9,124.5,10.36,9.24,317.98,18.0565 +1989,8,66.2606,17964,40.9,124.5,10.39,8.99,346.08,19.32348 +1989,9,66.1003,17922,40.8,124.8,10.41,9.02,351.45,16.7465 +1989,10,65.9802,17895,40.8,125.4,10.43,8.84,349.15,21.95091 +1989,11,66.0905,17886,40.7,125.9,10.44,8.55,340.36,20.93238 +1989,12,66.2429,17881,40.5,126.3,10.49,8.45,346.01,18.235 +1990,1,66.1663,17799,40.5,127.5,10.51,8.23,353.4,23.49909 +1990,2,67.093,17896,40.6,128,10.64,8.24,329.08,23.32684 +1990,3,67.3468,17870,40.7,128.6,10.7,8.28,331.89,18.83136 +1990,4,67.1765,17847,40.6,128.9,10.68,8.26,339.94,20.4575 +1990,5,67.2768,17796,40.6,129.1,10.74,8.18,330.8,18.15182 +1990,6,67.4336,17775,40.7,129.9,10.77,8.29,361.26,17.58286 +1990,7,67.3052,17703,40.6,130.5,10.81,8.15,358.02,18.93286 +1990,8,67.4806,17648,40.5,131.6,10.8,8.13,356.15,27.77522 +1990,9,67.472,17610,40.5,132.5,10.86,8.2,322.56,28.81895 +1990,10,66.9443,17575,40.4,133.4,10.92,8.11,306.1,30.13043 +1990,11,66.1818,17428,40.2,133.7,10.89,7.81,303.99,25.10667 +1990,12,65.703,17394,40.3,134.2,10.93,7.31,322.23,22.5845 +1991,1,65.1759,17331,40.2,134.7,10.97,6.91,330.2,26.93182 +1991,2,64.7719,17214,40.1,134.8,10.98,6.25,343.91,22.11263 +1991,3,64.3306,17141,40,134.8,11,6.12,367.07,19.04105 +1991,4,64.5419,17095,40.1,135.1,11.04,5.91,375.22,18.92727 +1991,5,64.9967,17069,40.1,135.6,11.08,5.78,375.35,17.18045 +1991,6,65.7282,17042,40.5,136,11.13,5.9,389.81,17.575 +1991,7,65.8888,17016,40.5,136.2,11.17,5.82,371.18,17.66955 +1991,8,66.0549,17025,40.6,136.6,11.18,5.66,387.81,15.93273 +1991,9,66.7235,17011,40.6,137,11.22,5.45,395.43,17.029 +1991,10,66.5931,16998,40.6,137.2,11.25,5.21,387.86,16.84636 +1991,11,66.4111,16960,40.6,137.8,11.26,4.81,392.46,17.6815 +1991,12,66.3596,16916,40.7,138.2,11.26,4.43,375.11,18.01857 +1992,1,65.9717,16840,40.6,138.3,11.24,4.03,417.03,17.49955 +1992,2,66.5535,16831,40.7,138.6,11.3,4.06,408.79,17.05053 +1992,3,67.1899,16805,40.7,139.1,11.33,3.98,412.68,16.22273 +1992,4,67.5635,16830,41,139.4,11.36,3.73,403.67,16.18857 +1992,5,67.976,16834,40.9,139.7,11.39,3.82,414.95,14.728 +1992,6,68.198,16825,40.8,140.1,11.41,3.76,415.35,14.75318 +1992,7,68.7614,16820,40.8,140.5,11.43,3.25,408.2,13.30364 +1992,8,68.4492,16783,40.8,140.8,11.47,3.3,424.19,14.42238 +1992,9,68.4862,16761,40.8,141.1,11.46,3.22,414.03,14.25857 +1992,10,68.9054,16750,40.8,141.7,11.47,3.1,417.8,17.47864 +1992,11,69.1557,16758,40.9,142.1,11.49,3.09,418.66,14.594 +1992,12,69.0088,16767,40.9,142.3,11.51,2.92,431.35,12.78136 +1993,1,69.7207,16791,41.1,142.8,11.55,3.02,435.7,12.584 +1993,2,69.8265,16806,41.1,143.1,11.58,3.03,438.78,13.62474 +1993,3,69.7251,16795,40.8,143.3,11.58,3.07,443.38,13.69304 +1993,4,70.1331,16771,41.5,143.8,11.63,2.96,451.67,13.45667 +1993,5,70.0706,16766,41.1,144.2,11.66,3,440.19,13.535 +1993,6,69.9971,16742,40.9,144.3,11.67,3.04,450.23,13.00227 +1993,7,70.2026,16740,41.1,144.5,11.69,3.06,450.54,11.99952 +1993,8,70.126,16741,41.2,144.8,11.72,3.03,448.13,11.95227 +1993,9,70.5385,16769,41.3,145,11.77,3.09,463.55,12.62143 +1993,10,71.1044,16777,41.3,145.6,11.79,2.99,458.93,11.37714 +1993,11,71.4074,16800,41.3,146,11.83,3.02,467.83,13.37 +1993,12,71.8,16815,41.4,146.3,11.88,2.96,461.93,10.86455 +1994,1,71.9626,16854,41.4,146.3,11.89,3.05,466.51,10.60524 +1994,2,72.0143,16863,40.9,146.7,11.98,3.25,481.6,12.88526 +1994,3,72.9839,16896,41.7,147.1,11.95,3.34,467.19,14.24087 +1994,4,73.5601,16932,41.7,147.2,11.96,3.56,445.66,15.33474 +1994,5,74.0567,16961,41.8,147.5,11.98,4.01,450.91,13.39 +1994,6,74.2702,17011,41.8,147.9,12,4.25,456.5,12.94591 +1994,7,74.6191,17026,41.8,148.4,12.02,4.26,444.27,12.1635 +1994,8,75.1537,17082,41.7,149,12.06,4.47,458.28,11.39304 +1994,9,75.4002,17113,41.6,149.3,12.09,4.73,475.49,12.61238 +1994,10,76.137,17143,41.8,149.4,12.12,4.76,462.69,15.04952 +1994,11,76.7593,17187,41.8,149.8,12.16,5.29,472.26,16.24952 +1994,12,77.6627,17218,41.8,150.1,12.17,5.45,453.55,13.80667 +1995,1,77.9261,17261,41.8,150.5,12.19,5.53,459.21,11.7119 +1995,2,77.8309,17265,41.7,150.9,12.25,5.92,470.42,11.19737 +1995,3,77.9878,17262,41.5,151.2,12.24,5.98,487.39,11.9713 +1995,4,77.8566,17278,41.2,151.8,12.26,6.05,500.7,12.51684 +1995,5,77.8866,17259,41.2,152.1,12.28,6.01,514.76,12.45864 +1995,6,78.1911,17249,41.2,152.4,12.31,6,533.4,13.17909 +1995,7,77.7396,17218,41.1,152.6,12.38,5.85,544.75,14.0765 +1995,8,78.6608,17239,41.2,152.9,12.39,5.74,562.06,13.3487 +1995,9,79.3233,17246,41.2,153.1,12.41,5.8,561.88,12.237 +1995,10,79.1885,17215,41.2,153.5,12.44,5.76,584.41,14.23773 +1995,11,79.2824,17207,41.3,153.7,12.45,5.8,581.5,12.9719 +1995,12,79.6542,17229,40.9,153.9,12.49,5.6,605.37,12.288 +1996,1,79.0975,17208,39.7,154.7,12.6,5.56,615.93,15.06905 +1996,2,80.4577,17230,41.3,155,12.56,5.22,636.02,16.56722 +1996,3,80.2122,17192,41.1,155.5,12.5,5.31,640.43,18.7075 +1996,4,80.9793,17204,41.2,156.1,12.69,5.22,645.5,16.75053 +1996,5,81.4756,17222,41.4,156.4,12.7,5.24,654.17,16.86273 +1996,6,82.3508,17227,41.5,156.7,12.76,5.27,669.12,17.62167 +1996,7,82.5865,17222,41.4,157,12.78,5.4,670.63,19.27095 +1996,8,83.0916,17255,41.5,157.2,12.82,5.22,639.95,16.145 +1996,9,83.6183,17252,41.6,157.7,12.84,5.3,651.99,17.046 +1996,10,83.5731,17268,41.4,158.2,12.84,5.24,687.31,17.62696 +1996,11,84.2749,17276,41.5,158.7,12.89,5.31,705.27,17.1635 +1996,12,85.0404,17283,41.7,159.1,12.95,5.29,757.02,19.9415 +1997,1,85.0977,17299,41.4,159.4,13,5.25,740.74,21.03136 +1997,2,86.306,17317,41.6,159.7,13,5.19,786.16,21.64789 +1997,3,87.3176,17339,41.8,159.8,13.03,5.39,790.82,22.3035 +1997,4,87.1126,17351,41.8,159.9,13.04,5.51,757.12,21.50773 +1997,5,87.8688,17363,41.7,159.9,13.06,5.5,801.34,21.92762 +1997,6,88.4435,17388,41.6,160.2,13.08,5.56,848.28,22.74333 +1997,7,88.8438,17388,41.6,160.4,13.09,5.52,885.14,23.24773 +1997,8,90.3304,17451,41.6,160.8,13.17,5.54,954.29,25.15381 +1997,9,91.1319,17465,41.6,161.2,13.17,5.54,899.47,25.59286 +1997,10,91.7549,17513,41.8,161.5,13.28,5.5,947.28,25.62522 +1997,11,92.8099,17556,41.8,161.7,13.33,5.52,914.62,31.54526 +1997,12,93.2685,17587,42,161.8,13.35,5.5,955.4,26.47318 +1998,1,93.9662,17623,41.9,162,13.35,5.56,970.43,24.4275 +1998,2,93.9451,17627,41.7,162,13.39,5.51,980.28,20.38632 +1998,3,93.778,17637,41.6,162,13.44,5.49,1049.34,20.54318 +1998,4,94.4013,17635,41.3,162.2,13.41,5.45,1101.75,22.5381 +1998,5,94.8603,17623,41.5,162.6,13.46,5.49,1111.75,21.4485 +1998,6,94.2186,17609,41.4,162.8,13.43,5.56,1090.82,22.22318 +1998,7,93.7857,17421,41.4,163.2,13.34,5.54,1133.84,20.25182 +1998,8,96.1052,17563,41.4,163.4,13.47,5.55,1120.67,31.48857 +1998,9,95.7807,17557,41.3,163.5,13.53,5.51,957.28,39.24714 +1998,10,96.678,17511,41.4,163.9,13.52,5.07,1017.01,37.45409 +1998,11,96.8436,17465,41.4,164.1,13.54,4.83,1098.67,25.038 +1998,12,97.3464,17447,41.5,164.4,13.56,4.68,1163.63,25.47682 +1999,1,97.6668,17432,41.3,164.7,13.6,4.63,1229.23,28.61684 +1999,2,98.372,17395,41.4,164.7,13.63,4.76,1279.64,29.56631 +1999,3,98.2797,17368,41.3,164.8,13.69,4.81,1238.33,26.30739 +1999,4,98.6283,17343,41.3,165.9,13.75,4.74,1286.37,24.69381 +1999,5,99.5488,17333,41.4,166,13.8,4.74,1335.18,27.3765 +1999,6,99.2163,17296,41.3,166,13.86,4.76,1301.84,24.12364 +1999,7,99.6718,17308,41.4,166.7,13.91,4.99,1372.71,21.48667 +1999,8,100.3839,17286,41.5,167.1,13.93,5.07,1328.72,24.72773 +1999,9,100.0215,17279,41.5,167.8,13.99,5.22,1320.41,26.04941 +1999,10,101.585,17273,41.4,168.1,13.99,5.2,1282.71,25.37 +1999,11,102.3609,17281,41.4,168.4,14,5.42,1362.93,22.22952 +1999,12,103.1171,17277,41.4,168.8,14.06,5.3,1388.91,23.22136 +2000,1,103.29,17292,41.5,169.3,14.13,5.45,1469.25,24.843 +2000,2,103.5681,17284,41.6,170,14.15,5.73,1394.46,25.456 +2000,3,104.2542,17302,41.4,171,14.18,5.85,1366.42,24.76783 +2000,4,104.8859,17298,41.5,170.9,14.24,6.02,1498.58,29.83316 +2000,5,104.803,17279,41.3,171.2,14.22,6.27,1452.43,29.42909 +2000,6,105.062,17298,41.3,172.2,14.29,6.53,1420.6,24.31773 +2000,7,105.0214,17321,41.5,172.7,14.31,6.54,1454.6,22.66 +2000,8,104.4672,17286,41,172.7,14.36,6.5,1430.83,20.48435 +2000,9,104.9199,17226,41,173.6,14.4,6.52,1517.68,22.3365 +2000,10,104.477,17215,41.1,173.9,14.48,6.51,1436.52,28.21409 +2000,11,104.1364,17202,41.1,174.2,14.52,6.51,1429.4,29.2119 +2000,12,103.4868,17178,40.4,174.6,14.51,6.4,1314.95,30.1045 +2001,1,102.8538,17114,40.7,175.6,14.48,5.98,1320.28,27.83 +2001,2,102.2594,17029,40.5,176,14.56,5.49,1366.01,26.15947 +2001,3,101.9103,16939,40.5,176.1,14.58,5.31,1239.94,32.42318 +2001,4,101.6598,16803,40.5,176.4,14.64,4.8,1160.33,32.245 +2001,5,100.9065,16662,40.4,177.3,14.69,4.21,1249.46,26.095 +2001,6,100.2221,16516,40.3,177.7,14.74,3.97,1255.82,23.30048 +2001,7,99.8578,16378,40.6,177.4,14.8,3.77,1224.42,24.85905 +2001,8,99.1541,16225,40.3,177.4,14.85,3.65,1211.23,24.26044 +2001,9,98.7987,16113,40.2,178.1,14.9,3.07,1133.58,42.64579 +2001,10,98.1092,15971,40.1,177.6,14.88,2.49,1040.94,34.44696 +2001,11,97.8094,15825,40.1,177.5,14.96,2.09,1059.78,28.25429 +2001,12,98.0011,15710,40.3,177.4,15.02,1.82,1139.45,24.5395 +2002,1,98.3714,15598,40.2,177.7,15.06,1.73,1148.08,23.61524 +2002,2,98.4417,15518,40.3,178,15.12,1.74,1130.2,24.66842 +2002,3,99.1379,15446,40.5,178.5,15.15,1.73,1106.73,21.014 +2002,4,99.2099,15394,40.5,179.3,15.17,1.75,1147.39,21.81454 +2002,5,99.8771,15338,40.6,179.5,15.23,1.75,1076.92,22.63 +2002,6,100.9983,15297,40.7,179.6,15.26,1.75,1067.14,28.599 +2002,7,100.5697,15250,40.4,180,15.27,1.73,989.82,38.49727 +2002,8,100.9004,15164,40.5,180.5,15.34,1.74,911.62,37.25273 +2002,9,100.9249,15115,40.5,180.8,15.38,1.75,916.07,41.656 +2002,10,100.4206,15059,40.3,181.2,15.45,1.75,815.28,41.39739 +2002,11,100.8283,14992,40.4,181.5,15.48,1.34,885.76,32.005 +2002,12,100.3198,14910,40.5,181.8,15.54,1.24,936.31,31.83095 +2003,1,100.8239,14867,40.3,182.6,15.59,1.24,879.82,30.66857 +2003,2,100.9976,14780,40.2,183.6,15.62,1.26,855.7,36.54053 +2003,3,101.2764,14722,40.4,183.9,15.64,1.25,841.15,35.19476 +2003,4,100.2917,14608,40,183.2,15.63,1.26,848.18,27.14238 +2003,5,100.3995,14556,40.2,182.9,15.67,1.26,916.92,22.54857 +2003,6,100.9792,14493,40.3,183.1,15.72,1.22,963.59,22.34905 +2003,7,101.1629,14401,40,183.7,15.74,1.01,974.5,21.20682 +2003,8,100.8673,14378,40.2,184.5,15.78,1.03,990.31,20.82905 +2003,9,101.5941,14347,40.5,185.1,15.82,1.01,1008.01,20.68238 +2003,10,101.6509,14334,40.6,184.9,15.83,1.01,995.97,19.18435 +2003,11,102.6515,14315,40.9,185,15.9,1,1050.71,17.83895 +2003,12,102.4066,14300,40.7,185.5,15.92,0.98,1058.2,16.37545 +2004,1,102.4028,14293,40.9,186.2,15.94,1,1111.92,15.834 +2004,2,103.0446,14277,41,186.7,15.97,1.01,1131.13,15.92474 +2004,3,102.8921,14286,40.9,187.1,16.02,1,1144.94,17.73304 +2004,4,103.4034,14313,40.8,187.4,16.07,1,1126.21,15.7881 +2004,5,104.1066,14338,41.1,188.2,16.07,1,1107.3,18.076 +2004,6,103.3323,14331,40.7,188.9,16.11,1.03,1120.68,15.04524 +2004,7,104.2102,14342,40.9,189.1,16.19,1.26,1140.84,15.66857 +2004,8,104.8965,14344,40.8,189.4,16.21,1.43,1101.72,16.59273 +2004,9,104.688,14332,40.8,189.8,16.31,1.61,1104.24,13.88048 +2004,10,105.7448,14332,40.6,190.8,16.26,1.76,1114.58,15.18476 +2004,11,105.8447,14309,40.5,191.6,16.31,1.93,1130.2,14.05 +2004,12,106.3611,14287,40.6,191.7,16.35,2.16,1173.78,13.01409 +2005,1,107.0892,14262,40.7,191.7,16.38,2.28,1211.92,13.512 +2005,2,107.8148,14271,40.6,192.3,16.44,2.5,1181.27,11.56263 +2005,3,107.5293,14266,40.4,192.9,16.44,2.63,1203.6,12.88046 +2005,4,107.5732,14248,40.5,193.8,16.47,2.79,1180.59,14.05714 +2005,5,108.1777,14248,40.4,193.5,16.54,3,1156.85,13.17905 +2005,6,108.41,14221,40.4,193.6,16.53,3.04,1191.5,11.24182 +2005,7,108.4413,14214,40.4,194.9,16.56,3.26,1191.33,10.489 +2005,8,108.8059,14203,40.5,196.2,16.64,3.5,1234.18,11.98522 +2005,9,107.7151,14180,40.7,198.8,16.6,3.62,1220.33,11.95905 +2005,10,109.3671,14199,41,199.2,16.69,3.78,1228.81,14.58238 +2005,11,110.2126,14200,40.9,198.3,16.68,4,1207.01,11.60619 +2005,12,110.1495,14205,40.8,198.2,16.69,4.16,1249.48,10.92381 +2006,1,110.9369,14214,41,199.4,16.7,4.29,1248.29,11.7115 +2006,2,110.4804,14209,41.1,199.3,16.7,4.49,1280.08,11.86737 +2006,3,110.4999,14208,41.1,199.6,16.73,4.59,1280.66,11.19087 +2006,4,111.0786,14216,41.2,200.6,16.75,4.79,1302.88,11.16368 +2006,5,110.7949,14190,41.1,201.3,16.76,4.94,1310.61,13.48818 +2006,6,111.2172,14200,41.2,201.9,16.78,4.99,1270.05,15.89136 +2006,7,111.3144,14177,41.4,202.9,16.78,5.24,1270.06,14.522 +2006,8,111.6624,14160,41.2,203.8,16.83,5.25,1278.53,12.56044 +2006,9,111.4521,14138,41.1,202.9,16.84,5.25,1303.8,11.397 +2006,10,110.8858,14090,41.2,201.9,16.9,5.25,1335.82,10.79727 +2006,11,110.7557,14055,41,202.1,16.9,5.25,1377.76,10.48429 +2006,12,111.8233,14033,41.1,203.3,16.99,5.24,1400.63,10.499 +2007,1,111.1324,14015,40.9,203.552,17.02,5.25,1418.03,10.627 +2007,2,111.2524,13988,40.9,204.158,17.06,5.26,1437.9,10.92053 +2007,3,112.0039,13953,41.2,205.098,17.11,5.26,1406.8,14.92136 +2007,4,112.4392,13922,41.1,205.751,17.2,5.25,1420.83,12.246 +2007,5,112.6156,13910,41.1,206.7,17.23,5.25,1482.37,12.965 +2007,6,113.206,13890,41.4,207.246,17.28,5.25,1530.62,14.8819 +2007,7,114.0596,13884,41.4,207.708,17.3,5.26,1504.66,17.24762 +2007,8,113.5755,13844,41.3,207.749,17.33,5.02,1455.18,25.12 +2007,9,113.9732,13822,41.4,208.509,17.34,4.94,1473.96,22.18211 +2007,10,113.4996,13797,41.2,209.055,17.34,4.76,1527.29,18.85957 +2007,11,113.7682,13794,41.3,210.93,17.4,4.49,1545.79,26.65714 +2007,12,113.8175,13772,41.1,211.68,17.41,4.24,1479.63,23.0965 +2008,1,113.8368,13737,41.1,212.516,17.49,3.94,1467.97,28.11619 +2008,2,113.0894,13690,41.1,212.571,17.55,2.98,1378.6,27.1565 +2008,3,113.3694,13644,41.2,213.301,17.61,2.61,1330.45,29.009 +2008,4,112.3445,13592,41,213.743,17.62,2.28,1326.41,22.52682 +2008,5,112.2829,13571,41,215.132,17.65,1.98,1385.97,18.7919 +2008,6,112.4998,13536,41,217.403,17.72,2,1399.62,23.19143 +2008,7,,13501,41,,17.78,2.01,1276.69,25.63227 +2008,8,,,,,,,, +2008,9,,,,,,,, +2008,10,,,,,,,, +2008,11,,,,,,,, +2008,12,,,,,,,, diff --git a/exam/midterm_exam_WS2425.tex b/exam/midterm_exam_WS2425.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f6dc2aa --- /dev/null +++ b/exam/midterm_exam_WS2425.tex @@ -0,0 +1,238 @@ +% !TeX encoding = UTF-8 +% !TeX spellcheck = en_US +% !TEX root = midterm_exam_WS2425.tex +\documentclass{article} +%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +\usepackage[a4paper,top=2cm]{geometry} +\usepackage{amssymb,amsmath,amsfonts} +\usepackage[english]{babel} +\usepackage[a4paper]{geometry} +\usepackage{enumitem} +\usepackage{booktabs} +\usepackage{csquotes} +\usepackage{graphicx} +\usepackage[numbered,framed]{matlab-prettifier} +\usepackage{url} +%\parindent0mm +%\parskip1.5ex plus0.5ex minus0.5ex +\usepackage[backend=biber,style=authoryear]{biblatex} +\addbibresource{../literature/_biblio.bib} +\begin{document} + +\title{Quantitative Macroeconomics} +\author{Midterm Exam} +\date{Winter 2024/2025\\~\\Version 1.0} +\maketitle + +\section*{General information} +\begin{itemize} +\item Answer \textbf{all} of the following \textbf{four} exercises in English. +\item All assignments will be given the same weight in the final grade. +\item Hand in your solutions before December, 13 2024 at 8pm. +\item The solution files should contain your executable (and commented) script files + as well as all additional documentation as \texttt{pdf}, not \texttt{txt}, \texttt{md}, \texttt{tex}, \texttt{doc} or \texttt{docx}. +Your \texttt{pdf} files may also include scans or pictures of handwritten notes. +\item Please e-mail ALL the solution files to \url{willi.mutschler@uni-tuebingen.de}. +I will confirm the receipt of your work also by email (typically within the hour). If not, please resend it to me. +\item All students must work on their own, please also give your student ID number and the name of the module you want to earn credits for. +\item It is advised to regularly check Ilias and your emails in case of urgent updates. +\item If there are any questions, do not hesitate to contact Willi Mutschler. +\end{itemize} + +\section*{Changelog} +\begin{itemize} +\item Version 1.0: first release +\end{itemize} +\newpage + +\section[Theoretical and Simulated Moments]{Theoretical and Simulated Moments\label{ex:TheoreticalAndSimulatedMoments}} +\begin{enumerate} +\item Derive the unconditional first two moments (i.e.\ theoretical mean, covariance and autocovariance matrix) of the covariance stationary VAR{(1)} model: \(y_t = \nu + A y_{t-1} + u_t\) +\item Simulate \(R=100\) datasets each with \(T=100\) observations for +\begin{align*} +y_t = \begin{pmatrix}0.2 &0.3 \\-0.6 & 1.1 \end{pmatrix} y_{t-1} + u_t +\end{align*} +provided that \(u_t \sim WN(0,\Sigma_u)\) and \(\Sigma_u = \begin{pmatrix}0.9 & \\ 0.2 & 0.5 \end{pmatrix}\). +\item Compute the sample mean and sample covariance matrix for each of the \(R\) datasets. +Then take the average and compare the results with part (1). +\item How does your choice of \(R\) or \(T\) change your results? + +\end{enumerate} + +\newpage + +\section{Properties Of Lag-Order Selection Criteria} +Assume that the true Data-Generating-Process (DGP) follows the following VAR{(4)} model +\begin{align*} +y_t = \begin{pmatrix} +2.4 & 1.0\\ +0 & 1.1 +\end{pmatrix} +y_{t-1}+ +\begin{pmatrix} +-2.15 & -0.9\\ +0 & -0.41 +\end{pmatrix} +y_{t-2}+ +\begin{pmatrix} +0.852 & 0.2\\ +0& 0.06 +\end{pmatrix} +y_{t-3}+ +\begin{pmatrix} +-0.126 & 0\\ +0 & 0.0003 +\end{pmatrix} +y_{t-4} ++ u_t +\end{align*} +where \(u_t\) is a Gaussian white noise with contemporary covariance matrix \(\Sigma_u = \begin{pmatrix} +0.9&0.2\\0.2&0.5 +\end{pmatrix}\). + +Perform a Monte-Carlo analysis to study both the finite-sample as well as asymptotic properties + of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC): +\begin{align*} +AIC(m) &= \log(det(\tilde{\Sigma}_u(m))) + \frac{2}{T}\varphi(m)\\ +SIC(m) &= \log(det(\tilde{\Sigma}_u(m))) + \frac{\log T}{T}\varphi(m) +\end{align*} +where \(\tilde{\Sigma}_u=T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^T \hat{u}_t\hat{u}_t'\) is the residual covariance matrix estimator + for a reduced-form VAR model of order $m$ based on OLS residuals \(\hat{u}_t\). +The function \(\varphi(m)\) corresponds to the total number of regressors in the system of VAR equations. +The VAR order is chosen such that the respective criterion is minimized over the possible orders \(m = 0,\ldots,p^{max}\). +To this end, do the following. + +\begin{itemize} +\item Set the number of Monte Carlo repetitions \(R=100\) and \(p^{max}=8\). +\item Initialize output matrices \(aic\) and \(sic\) each of dimension \(R \times 5\). +\item For \(r=1,\ldots,R\) do the following: +\begin{itemize} + \item Simulate \(10100\) observations for the DGP given above and discard the first 100 observations as burn-in phase. + Save the remaining 10000 observations in a matrix \(Y\). + \item Compute the lag criteria for 5 different sample sizes \(T=\{80, 160, 240, 500, 10000\} \), + i.e.\ use the last \(T\) observations of your simulated data matrix \(Y\) for computations. + \item Save the chosen lag order in the corresponding output object at position \([r,j]\) where \(j=1,\ldots,5\) indicates the corresponding sample size. +\end{itemize} +\item Look at the frequency tables of your output objects for the different subsamples. +Hint: \texttt{tabulate(aic(:,1))} displays a frequency table for the AIC criterion with sample size equal to 80. +\end{itemize} +Given your results, do you agree with the following (general) findings often found in the literature and textbooks: +\begin{enumerate} +\item AIC is not consistent for the true lag order, whereas SIC is consistent. +\item AIC never (asymptotically) selects a lag order that is lower than the true lag order. +\item In finite samples, we usually have \(\hat{p}_{SIC} \leq \hat{p}_{AIC}\). +\item In finite samples, AIC has a tendency to overestimate the lag order, SIC has a tendency to underestimate the lag order; hence, one should rely on AIC in finite samples. +\end{enumerate} + +\newpage + +\section[VAR Estimates on the Impact of Stock-Market Volatility Shocks]{VAR Estimates on the Impact of Stock-Market Volatility Shocks} + +\begin{enumerate} +\item Read sections 1 and 2 as well as Appendix A of the paper by \textcite{Bloom_2009_ImpactUncertaintyShocks}. +Focus only on the VAR evidence. +What is the difference between first-moment and second-moment shocks in the context of the paper? + +\item What does it mean that \emph{variables are Hodrick-Prescott (HP) detrended (\(\lambda=129,600\))}? + +\item Load the data given in the file \texttt{Bloom2009.csv}. Transform the variables as described in the paper. +Plot the transformed variables. + +\item Construct the \emph{main stock-market volatility indicator}, + which takes a value of 1 for each of the dates in Table A.1 (Max Volatility) and a 0 otherwise. +Explain the idea behind the construction of this indicator. + +\item Estimate the reduced-form VAR(12) model with a constant and time trend. +Compute the Cholesky decomposition of the estimated residual covariance matrix + and call it \(B_{0}^{-1}\). + +\item Explain the identification strategy for the structural VAR model employed in the paper. + +\item Use your estimated \(B_{0}^{-1}\) to replicate the point responses (not the dashed error bands) of Figure 2 and Figure 3 of the paper. +Interpret the figures. + +\item Replicate the robustness results in Figure A2. +Interpret the results. + +\paragraph{Hints:} +\begin{itemize} +\item Note that the actual dataset spans 1962-7 to 2008-6. +\item In MATLAB the following command computes the HP detrended cyclical component of the logarithm of a series \texttt{X} with \(\lambda=129,600\):\\ +\begin{center}\texttt{[\(\sim\),x] = hpfilter(log(X),'Smoothing',129600);}\end{center} +\item MATLAB's \emph{datetime} arrays can be useful to handle dates in order to search for specific dates. +\end{itemize} + +\end{enumerate} + +\newpage + +\section[Sign-identified Monetary SVAR Model for US]{Sign-identified Monetary SVAR Model for US\label{ex:SignIdentifiedMonetarySVARUS}} +Consider data for \(y_t = (\Delta gnp_t,\Delta p_t,i_t)'\), + where \(gnp_t\) denotes the log of U.S. real GNP, + \(p_t\) the consumer price index in logs, + and \(i_t\) the federal funds rate. + Data is given in the csv file \texttt{MonPol.csv} containing the sample period of 1970Q1 to 2011Q1. + +We will use the following sign restrictions pattern to identify the structural shocks: +\begin{align} +B_0^{-1}=\begin{bmatrix} ++ & + & -\\ ++ & - & -\\ ++ & * & + +\label{eq:signpattern} +\end{bmatrix} +\end{align} +where \(*\) denotes an unrestricted value. + +\begin{enumerate} +\item Read the short summary paper by \textcite{Wolf_2022_WhatCanWe} and provide economic intuition for the pattern given in equation \eqref{eq:signpattern}. +\item Write a script that estimates the structural impulse response function via sign restrictions. +To this end: +\begin{itemize} +\item Estimate a VAR{(4)} model with constant by using ordinary least-squares. +Compute the lower Cholesky decomposition of your estimated residual covariance matrix, i.e.\ \( P = chol(\hat{\Sigma}_u) \). +\item Set the IRF horizon \(H=20\) and the number of required sign-identified draws to \(N=1000\). +\item Initialize an array \texttt{IRFvals} of dimension +(i) number of variables \(K\) by (ii) number of shocks \(K\) by (iii) horizon \(H\) by (iv) number of draws \(N\). +This array will store \(n=1,\ldots,N\) sign-identified impulse response functions \(\theta_{jkhn}\) for variable \(j=1,\ldots,K\) + with respect to shock \(k=1,\ldots,K\) at horizon \(h=0,\ldots,H\), where \(K\) is the number of variables. + +\item Initialize \texttt{n=1} and write a while loop that executes the following steps: +\begin{itemize} + \item Draw an orthogonal rotation matrix \(Q\) using the function \texttt{drawRotationMatrixQ.m} in the appendix. + \item Compute the implied rotated impact matrix \(\widetilde{B}_0^{-1}=PQ\). + \item Note that \(\widetilde{B}_0^{-1}\) is a valid impact matrix, because \(\hat{\Sigma}_u = \widetilde{B}_0^{-1} \widetilde{B}_0^{-1'}\). + However, we will only accept those impact matrices \(\widetilde{B}_0^{-1}\) that full-fill the sign restrictions in equation~\eqref{eq:signpattern}. + Therefore, use if statements to check whether \(\widetilde{B}_0^{-1}\) is a valid impact matrix: + \begin{itemize} + \item If the pattern is correct, increase \(n\) by 1 and compute the implied IRFs. Store these into \texttt{IRFvals(:,:,:,n)}. + \item If the pattern is incorrect, don't change the value of \(n\), discard this draw and go back to the beginning of the loop. + \end{itemize} + \item End the while loop if \texttt{n=N}. +\end{itemize} +\item Plot \textbf{ALL} \(N\) impulse response functions that full-fill the sign pattern for (i) the level of GDP, (ii) CPI inflation and (iii) the Federal Funds rate. +\\Hint: The graphs should look similar to figure~\ref{fig:signSVAR} in the appendix. +That is, in each subplot compute and plot \texttt{IRFS = squeeze(IRFvals(ivar,ishock,1:nsteps,:))}. +\end{itemize} + +\item Interpret the findings in Figure~\ref{fig:signSVAR}. +\end{enumerate} + +\newpage + +\appendix + +\newpage +\section{Codes} +\lstinputlisting[label=drawRotationMatrixQ,title=\lstname,style=Matlab-editor,basicstyle=\footnotesize\mlttfamily,title=\lstname]{../progs/matlab/drawRotationMatrixQ.m} +\newpage + +\section{Figures} +\begin{figure}[h]\caption[]{Sign-identified IRFs}\label{fig:signSVAR} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{../plots/signIRFs.jpg} +\end{figure} +\newpage + +\printbibliography% + +\end{document} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/literature/_biblio.bib b/literature/_biblio.bib index 670c27d..1f8e328 100644 --- a/literature/_biblio.bib +++ b/literature/_biblio.bib @@ -15,9 +15,9 @@ @incollection{Anderson.McGrattan.Hansen.EtAl_1996_MechanicsFormingEstimating year = {1996}, volume = {1}, pages = {171--252}, - publisher = {{Elsevier}}, + publisher = {Elsevier}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0021(96)01006-4}, - abstract = {This paper describes the recent advances for rapidly and accurately solving matrix Riccati and Sylvester equations and applies them to devise efficient computational methods for solving and estimating dynamic linear economies. The chapter explores the most promising solution methods available and compares their speed and accuracy for some particular economic examples. Except for the simplest dynamic linear models, it is necessary to compute solutions numerically. In estimation contexts, computation speed is important because climbing a likelihood function can require that a model be solved many times. Methods that are faster than direct iterations on the Riccati equation and are more reliable than solutions based on eigenvalue{\textendash}eigenvector decompositions of the state{\textendash}costate evolution equation are discussed in the chapter. Two generalizations are presented in the chapter: The first generalization introduces forcing sequences or ``uncontrollable states'' into the deterministic regulator problem, while the second generalization introduces, among other things, discounting and uncertainty into the augmented regulator problem.}, + abstract = {This paper describes the recent advances for rapidly and accurately solving matrix Riccati and Sylvester equations and applies them to devise efficient computational methods for solving and estimating dynamic linear economies. The chapter explores the most promising solution methods available and compares their speed and accuracy for some particular economic examples. Except for the simplest dynamic linear models, it is necessary to compute solutions numerically. In estimation contexts, computation speed is important because climbing a likelihood function can require that a model be solved many times. Methods that are faster than direct iterations on the Riccati equation and are more reliable than solutions based on eigenvalue--eigenvector decompositions of the state--costate evolution equation are discussed in the chapter. Two generalizations are presented in the chapter: The first generalization introduces forcing sequences or ``uncontrollable states'' into the deterministic regulator problem, while the second generalization introduces, among other things, discounting and uncertainty into the augmented regulator problem.}, isbn = {978-0-444-89857-9} } @@ -27,8 +27,8 @@ @book{Anderson.Moore_1979_OptimalFiltering year = {1979}, series = {Dover Books on Engineering}, edition = {Dover ed., unabridged republ}, - publisher = {{Dover Publ}}, - address = {{Mineola, NY}}, + publisher = {Dover Publ}, + address = {Mineola, NY}, abstract = {This graduate-level text augments and extends beyond undergraduate studies of signal processing, particularly in regard to communication systems and digital filtering theory. Vital for students in the fields of control and communications, its contents are also relevant to students in such diverse areas as statistics, economics, bioengineering, and operations research. Topics include filtering, linear systems, and estimation; the discrete-time Kalman filter; time-invariant filters; properties of Kalman filters; computational aspects; and smoothing of discrete-time signals. Additional subjects encompass applications in nonlinear filtering; innovations representations, spectral factorization, and Wiener and Levinson filtering; parameter identification and adaptive estimation; and colored noise and suboptimal reduced order filters. Each chapter concludes with references, and four appendixes contain useful supplementary material.}, isbn = {978-0-486-43938-9} } @@ -62,8 +62,8 @@ @book{Bjornland.Thorsrud_2015_AppliedTimeSeries author = {Bj{\o}rnland, Hilde Christiane and Thorsrud, Leif Anders}, year = {2015}, edition = {2. utgave, 1. opplag}, - publisher = {{Gyldendal Akademisk}}, - address = {{Oslo}}, + publisher = {Gyldendal Akademisk}, + address = {Oslo}, abstract = {This book focuses on time series econometrics with applications in macroeconomics. The text shows how to formulate time series models, carry out forecasting and structural analyses, and work with stationary and nonstationary data alike. Univariate and multivariate models are covered, as are methods for breaking down time series data into trends and cycles. The book is filled with practical applications using macroeconomic time series, and MATLAB code accompanies all examples. Simple Monte Carlo simulations are explained and used to illustrate important concepts. The book should be easily accessible for graduate students with one or more courses in statistics and regression analysis, but who have never been introduced to time series analysis before. Applied researcher and analysts in business, governmental institutions and academia may benefit from the book as it provides examples and tools relevant for their tasks.}, isbn = {978-82-05-48089-6} } @@ -77,7 +77,19 @@ @article{Blanchard.Quah_1989_DynamicEffectsAggregate volume = {79}, number = {4}, pages = {655--673}, - abstract = {We interpretfluctuations in GNP and unemploymentas due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and distur- bances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances.Demand disturbanceshave a hump-shapedmirror-image effect on output and unemployment.The effect of supply disturbanceson output increases steadily over time, peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years.} + abstract = {We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances.Demand disturbances have a hump-shaped mirror-image effect on output and unemployment. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years.} +} + +@article{Bloom_2009_ImpactUncertaintyShocks, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Uncertainty Shocks}}}, + author = {Bloom, Nicholas}, + year = {2009}, + journal = {Econometrica}, + volume = {77}, + number = {3}, + pages = {623--685}, + doi = {10.3982/ECTA6248}, + copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1} } @book{Brandimarte_2006_NumericalMethodsFinance, @@ -86,13 +98,26 @@ @book{Brandimarte_2006_NumericalMethodsFinance year = {2006}, series = {Statistics in Practice}, edition = {2nd ed}, - publisher = {{Wiley Interscience}}, - address = {{Hoboken, N.J}}, + publisher = {Wiley Interscience}, + address = {Hoboken, N.J}, abstract = {A state-of-the-art introduction to the powerful mathematical and statistical tools used in the field of finance}, isbn = {978-0-471-74503-7}, keywords = {Economics,Finance,Statistical methods} } +@article{Caldara.Iacoviello_2022_MeasuringGeopoliticalRisk, + title = {Measuring {{Geopolitical Risk}}}, + author = {Caldara, Dario and Iacoviello, Matteo}, + year = {2022}, + month = apr, + journal = {American Economic Review}, + volume = {112}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1194--1225}, + doi = {10.1257/aer.20191823}, + abstract = {We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. Investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. Higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment. (JEL C43, E32, F51, F52, G31, H56, N40)} +} + @article{Calvo_1983_StaggeredPricesUtilitymaximizing, title = {Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework}, author = {Calvo, Guillermo A.}, @@ -107,12 +132,12 @@ @article{Calvo_1983_StaggeredPricesUtilitymaximizing } @inbook{Cantore.Gabriel.Levine.EtAl_2013_ScienceArtDSGE, - title = {The Science and Art of {{DSGE}} Modelling: {{I}} {\textendash} Construction and {{Bayesian}} Estimation}, + title = {The Science and Art of {{DSGE}} Modelling: {{I}} -- Construction and {{Bayesian}} Estimation}, booktitle = {Handbook of {{Research Methods}} and {{Applications}} in {{Empirical Macroeconomics}}}, author = {Cantore, Cristiano and Gabriel, Vasco J. and Levine, Paul and Pearlman, Joseph and Yang, Bo}, year = {2013}, pages = {411--440}, - publisher = {{Edward Elgar Publishing}}, + publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, doi = {10.4337/9780857931023.00026}, collaborator = {Hashimzade, Nigar and Thornton, Michael}, isbn = {978-0-85793-102-3} @@ -124,8 +149,8 @@ @book{Chacon_2014_ProGit year = {2014}, series = {The Expert's Voice in Software Development}, edition = {Second edition}, - publisher = {{Apress}}, - address = {{New York, NY}}, + publisher = {Apress}, + address = {New York, NY}, abstract = {Pro Git (Second Edition) is your fully-updated guide to Git and its usage in the modern world. Git has come a long way since it was first developed by Linus Torvalds for Linux kernel development. It has taken the open source world by storm since its inception in 2005, and this book teaches you how to use it like a pro. Effective and well-implemented version control is a necessity for successful web projects, whether large or small. With this book you'll learn how to master the world of distributed version workflow, use the distributed features of Git to the full, and extend Git to meet your every need. Written by Git pros Scott Chacon and Ben Straub, Pro Git (Second Edition) builds on the hugely successful first edition, and is now fully updated for Git version 2.0, as well as including an indispensable chapter on GitHub. It's the best book for all your Git needs.}, isbn = {978-1-4842-0077-3}, keywords = {Distributed processing,Electronic data processing,Git (Computer file)} @@ -153,7 +178,7 @@ @article{Christiano.Eichenbaum.Trabandt_2018_DSGEModels number = {3}, pages = {113--140}, doi = {10.1257/jep.32.3.113}, - abstract = {The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers{\textemdash}like most other economists and policymakers{\textemdash}failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks.} + abstract = {The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers---like most other economists and policymakers---failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks.} } @article{Crack.Ledoit_2010_CentralLimitTheorems, @@ -178,7 +203,8 @@ @article{Dixit.Stiglitz_1977_MonopolisticCompetitionOptimum journal = {The American Economic Review}, volume = {67}, number = {3}, - pages = {297--308} + pages = {297--308}, + doi = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117513} } @article{Fagiolo.Napoletano.Roventini_2008_AreOutputGrowthrate, @@ -200,8 +226,8 @@ @incollection{Fernandez-Villaverde.Rubio-Ramirez_2010_StructuralVectorAutoregres editor = {Durlauf, Steven N. and Blume, Lawrence E.}, year = {2010}, pages = {303--307}, - publisher = {{Palgrave Macmillan UK}}, - address = {{London}}, + publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan UK}, + address = {London}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230280830_33}, abstract = {Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) are a multivariate, linear representation of a vector of observables on its own lags and (possibly) other variables as a trend or a constant. SVARs make explicit identifying assumptions to isolate estimates of policy and/or private agents' behaviour and its effects on the economy while keeping the model free of the many additional restrictive assumptions needed to give every parameter a behavioural interpretation. Introduced by Sims (1980), SVARs have been used to document the effects of money on output (Sims and Zha, 2006a), the relative importance of supply and demand shocks on business cycles (Blanchard and Quah, 1989), the effects of fiscal policy (Blanchard and Perotti, 2002), or the relation between technology shocks and worked hours (Gal{\i}{\' }, 1999), among many other applications.}, isbn = {978-0-230-23885-5 978-0-230-28083-0} @@ -215,7 +241,7 @@ @incollection{Fernandez-Villaverde.Rubio-Ramirez.Schorfheide_2016_SolutionEstima year = {2016}, volume = {A}, pages = {527--724}, - publisher = {{Elsevier North-Holland}}, + publisher = {Elsevier North-Holland}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.hesmac.2016.03.006}, abstract = {This chapter provides an overview of solution and estimation techniques for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We cover the foundations of numerical approximation techniques as well as statistical inference and survey the latest developments in the field.}, isbn = {978-0-444-59469-3} @@ -239,9 +265,9 @@ @book{Gali_2015_MonetaryPolicyInflation author = {Gal{\'i}, Jordi}, year = {2015}, edition = {Second edition}, - publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}, - address = {{Princeton ; Oxford}}, - abstract = {This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability{\textendash}oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Gal{\'i} explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment's significance for monetary policy.}, + publisher = {Princeton University Press}, + address = {Princeton ; Oxford}, + abstract = {This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability--oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Gal{\'i} explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment's significance for monetary policy.}, isbn = {978-0-691-16478-6}, keywords = {BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory,BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Finance,BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy,Business cycles,Inflation (Finance),Keynesian economics,Monetary policy} } @@ -250,8 +276,8 @@ @book{Greenberg_2008_IntroductionBayesianEconometrics title = {Introduction to {{Bayesian}} Econometrics}, author = {Greenberg, Edward}, year = {2008}, - publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}}, - address = {{Cambridge ; New York}}, + publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, + address = {Cambridge ; New York}, abstract = {This textbook explains the basic ideas of subjective probability and shows how subjective probabilities must obey the usual rules of probability to ensure coherency. It defines the likelihood function, prior distributions and posterior distributions. It explains how posterior distributions are the basis for inference and explores their basic properties. Various methods of specifying prior distributions are considered, with special emphasis on subject-matter considerations and exchange ability. The regression model is examined to show how analytical methods may fail in the derivation of marginal posterior distributions. The remainder of the book is concerned with applications of the theory to important models that are used in economics, political science, biostatistics and other applied fields. New to the second edition is a chapter on semiparametric regression and new sections on the ordinal probit, item response, factor analysis, ARCH-GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The new edition also emphasizes the R programming language.}, isbn = {978-0-521-85871-7}, keywords = {Bayesian statistical decision theory,Econometrics} @@ -263,7 +289,7 @@ @inbook{Guerron-Quintana.Nason_2013_BayesianEstimationDSGE author = {{Guerr{\'o}n-Quintana}, Pablo A. and Nason, James M.}, year = {2013}, pages = {486--512}, - publisher = {{Edward Elgar Publishing}}, + publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, url = {https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857931023.00029}, collaborator = {Hashimzade, Nigar and Thornton, Michael}, isbn = {978-0-85793-102-3} @@ -274,8 +300,8 @@ @book{Heijdra_2017_FoundationsModernMacroeconomics author = {Heijdra, Ben J.}, year = {2017}, edition = {Third edition}, - publisher = {{Oxford university Press}}, - address = {{Oxford}}, + publisher = {Oxford university Press}, + address = {Oxford}, abstract = {The study of macroeconomics can seem a daunting project. The field is complex and sometimes poorly defined and there are a variety of competing approaches. It is easy for the senior bachelor and starting master student to get lost in the forest of macroeconomics and the mathematics it uses extensively. Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics is a guide book for the interested and ambitious student. Non-partisan in its approach, it deals with all the major topics, summarising the important approaches and providing the reader with a coherent angle on all aspects of macroeconomic thought. Each chapter deals with a separate area of macroeconomics, and each contains a summary section of key points and a further reading list. Using nothing more than undergraduate mathematical skills, it takes the student from basic IS-LM style macro models to the state of the art literature on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, explaining the mathematical tricks used where they are first introduced. Fully updated and substantially revised, this third edition of Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics now includes brand new chapters covering highly topical subjects such as dynamic programming, competitive risk sharing equilibria and the New Keynesian DSGE approach. --}, isbn = {978-0-19-878413-5}, keywords = {Macroeconomics,Problems and exercises,Problems exercises etc} @@ -286,7 +312,7 @@ @book{Herbst.Schorfheide_2016_BayesianEstimationDSGE author = {Herbst, Edward and Schorfheide, Frank}, year = {2016}, series = {The {{Econometric}} and {{Tinbergen Institutes Lectures}}}, - publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}, + publisher = {Princeton University Press}, abstract = {Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations.}, isbn = {978-0-691-16108-2} } @@ -311,7 +337,7 @@ @incollection{Kilian_2013_StructuralVectorAutoregressions editor = {Hashimzade, Steven N. and Thornton, Michael}, year = {2013}, pages = {515--554}, - publisher = {{Edward Elgar Publishing}}, + publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, url = {https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857931023.00031} } @@ -320,8 +346,8 @@ @book{Kilian.Lutkepohl_2017_StructuralVectorAutoregressive author = {Kilian, Lutz and L{\"u}tkepohl, Helmut}, year = {2017}, series = {Themes in {{Modern Econometrics}}}, - publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}}, - address = {{Cambridge}}, + publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, + address = {Cambridge}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108164818}, abstract = {Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.}, isbn = {978-1-107-19657-5} @@ -331,8 +357,8 @@ @book{Koop_2003_BayesianEconometrics title = {Bayesian Econometrics}, author = {Koop, Gary}, year = {2003}, - publisher = {{J. Wiley}}, - address = {{Chichester ; Hoboken, N.J}}, + publisher = {J. Wiley}, + address = {Chichester ; Hoboken, N.J}, abstract = {Researchers in many fields are increasingly finding the Bayesian approach to statistics to be an attractive one. This book introduces the reader to the use of Bayesian methods in the field of econometrics at the advanced undergraduate or graduate level. The book is self-contained and does not require that readers have previous training in econometrics. The focus is on models used by applied economists and the computational techniques necessary to implement Bayesian methods when doing empirical work. Topics covered in the book include the regression model (and variants applicable for use with panel data), time series models, models for qualitative or censored data, nonparametric methods and Bayesian model averaging. The book includes numerous empirical examples and the website associated with it contains data sets and computer programs to help the student develop the computational skills of modern Bayesian econometrics.}, isbn = {978-0-470-84567-7}, keywords = {Bayesian statistical decision theory,Econometric models} @@ -344,8 +370,8 @@ @book{Koop.Korobilis_2010_BayesianMultivariateTime year = {2010}, series = {Foundations and {{Trends}} in {{Econometrics}}}, number = {3.2009,4}, - publisher = {{now}}, - address = {{Boston}}, + publisher = {now}, + address = {Boston}, abstract = {Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus, over-parameterization problems may arise. Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular as a way of overcoming these problems. In this monograph, we discuss VARs, factor augmented VARs and time-varying parameter extensions and show how Bayesian inference proceeds. Apart from the simplest of VARs, Bayesian inference requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods developed for state space models and we describe these algorithms. The focus is on the empirical macroeconomist and we offer advice on how to use these models and methods in practice and include empirical illustrations. A website provides Matlab code for carrying out Bayesian inference in these models.}, isbn = {978-1-60198-362-6} } @@ -369,7 +395,7 @@ @incollection{Lutkepohl_2004_UnivariateTimeSeries year = {2004}, edition = {1}, pages = {8--85}, - publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}}, + publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606885.003}, isbn = {978-0-521-83919-8 978-0-521-54787-1 978-0-511-60688-5} } @@ -378,8 +404,8 @@ @book{Lutkepohl_2005_NewIntroductionMultiple title = {New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis}, author = {L{\"u}tkepohl, Helmut}, year = {2005}, - publisher = {{Springer}}, - address = {{Berlin}}, + publisher = {Springer}, + address = {Berlin}, abstract = {This reference work and graduate level textbook considers a wide range of models and methods for analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. The models covered include vector autoregressive, cointegrated,vector autoregressive moving average, multivariate ARCH and periodic processes as well as dynamic simultaneous equations and state space models. Least squares, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection and model specification are treated and a wide range of tests and criteria for model checking are introduced. Causality analysis, impulse response analysis and innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis. The book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their tasks. It bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.}, isbn = {978-3-540-40172-8}, keywords = {Time-series analysis} @@ -389,8 +415,8 @@ @book{McCandless_2008_ABCsRBCsIntroduction title = {The {{ABCs}} of {{RBCs}}: An Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Models}, author = {McCandless, George T.}, year = {2008}, - publisher = {{Harvard University Pres}}, - address = {{Cambridge, MA}}, + publisher = {Harvard University Pres}, + address = {Cambridge, MA}, abstract = {The ABCs of RBCs is the first book to provide a basic introduction to Real Business Cycle (RBC) and New-Keynesian models. These models argue that random shocks, new inventions, droughts, and wars, in the case of pure RBC models, and monetary and fiscal policy and international investor risk aversion, in more open interpretations can trigger booms and recessions and can account for much of observed output volatility. George McCandless works through a sequence of these Real Business Cycle and New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in fine detail, showing how to solve them, and how to add important extensions to the basic model, such as money, price and wage rigidities, financial markets, and an open economy. The impulse response functions of each new model show how the added feature changes the dynamics. The ABCs of RBCs is designed to teach the economic practitioner or student how to build simple RBC models. Matlab code for solving many of the models is provided, and careful readers should be able to construct, solve, and use their own models. In the tradition of the freshwater economic schools of Chicago and Minnesota, McCandless enhances the methods and sophistication of current macroeconomic modeling.}, isbn = {978-0-674-02814-2}, keywords = {Business cycles,Econometric models,Macroeconomics} @@ -400,8 +426,8 @@ @book{Miranda.Fackler_2002_AppliedComputationalEconomics title = {Applied Computational Economics and Finance}, author = {Miranda, Mario Javier and Fackler, Paul L.}, year = {2002}, - publisher = {{MIT}}, - address = {{Cambridge, Mass. London}}, + publisher = {MIT}, + address = {Cambridge, Mass. London}, abstract = {This book presents a variety of computational methods used to solve dynamic problems in economics and finance. It emphasizes practical numerical methods rather than mathematical proofs and focuses on techniques that apply directly to economic analyses. The examples are drawn from a wide range of subspecialties of economics and finance, with particular emphasis on problems in agricultural and resource economics, macroeconomics, and finance. The book also provides an extensive Web-site library of computer utilities and demonstration programs. The book is divided into two parts. The first part develops basic numerical methods, including linear and nonlinear equation methods, complementarity methods, finite-dimensional optimization, numerical integration and differentiation, and function approximation. The second part presents methods for solving dynamic stochastic models in economics and finance, including dynamic programming, rational expectations, and arbitrage pricing models in discrete and continuous time. The book uses MATLAB to illustrate the algorithms and includes a utilities toolbox to help readers develop their own computational economics applications.}, isbn = {978-0-262-63309-3} } @@ -411,8 +437,8 @@ @book{Neusser_2016_TimeSeriesEconometrics author = {Neusser, Klaus}, year = {2016}, series = {Springer Texts in Business and Economics}, - publisher = {{Springer}}, - address = {{Cham}}, + publisher = {Springer}, + address = {Cham}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32862-1}, abstract = {This text presents modern developments in time series analysis and focuses on their application to economic problems. The book first introduces the fundamental concept of a stationary time series and the basic properties of covariance, investigating the structure and estimation of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models and their relations to the covariance structure. The book then moves on to non-stationary time series, highlighting its consequences for modeling and forecasting and presenting standard statistical tests and regressions. Next, the text discusses volatility models and their applications in the analysis of financial market data, focusing on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. The second part of the text devoted to multivariate processes, such as vector autoregressive (VAR) models and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models, which have become the main tools in empirical macroeconomics. The text concludes with a discussion of co-integrated models and the Kalman Filter, which is being used with increasing frequency. Mathematically rigorous, yet application-oriented, this self-contained text will help students develop a deeper understanding of theory and better command of the models that are vital to the field. Assuming a basic knowledge of statistics and/or econometrics, this text is best suited for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students.}, isbn = {978-3-319-81387-5 978-3-319-32861-4} @@ -426,15 +452,15 @@ @misc{Pfeifer_2017_MATLABHandout abstract = {This is a short, self-contained introduction into Matlab that touches upon most issues you need to know in order to get started and be able to solve a fair amount of economic problems. Advanced topics are indicated with an asterisk in the heading.} } -@incollection{Ploberger_2010_LawLargeNumbers, +@incollection{Ploberger_2010_LawsLargeNumbers, title = {Law(s) of Large Numbers}, booktitle = {Macroeconometrics and {{Time Series Analysis}}}, author = {Ploberger, Werner}, editor = {Durlauf, Steven N. and Blume, Lawrence E.}, year = {2010}, pages = {158--162}, - publisher = {{Palgrave Macmillan UK}}, - address = {{London}}, + publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan UK}, + address = {London}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230280830_33}, isbn = {978-0-230-23885-5 978-0-230-28083-0} } @@ -445,8 +471,8 @@ @book{Romer_2019_AdvancedMacroeconomics year = {2019}, series = {The {{McGraw-Hill}} Series in Economics}, edition = {Fifth Edition}, - publisher = {{McGraw-Hill Education}}, - address = {{Dubuque}}, + publisher = {McGraw-Hill Education}, + address = {Dubuque}, abstract = {The fifth edition of Romer's Advanced Macroeconomics continues its tradition as the standard text and the starting point for graduate macroeconomics courses and helps lay the groundwork for students to begin doing research in macroeconomics and monetary economics. Romer presents the major theories concerning the central questions of macroeconomics. The theoretical analysis is supplemented by examples of relevant empirical work, illustrating the ways that theories can be applied and tested. In areas ranging from economic growth and short-run fluctuations to the natural rate of unemployment and monetary policy, formal models are used to present and analyze key ideas and issues. The book has been extensively revised to incorporate important new topics and new research, eliminate inessential material, and further improve the presentation.}, isbn = {978-1-260-18521-8}, keywords = {Macroeconomics} @@ -472,8 +498,8 @@ @incollection{Schorfheide_2010_BayesianMethodsMacroeconometrics editor = {Durlauf, Steven N. and Blume, Lawrence E.}, year = {2010}, pages = {28--34}, - publisher = {{Palgrave Macmillan UK}}, - address = {{London}}, + publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan UK}, + address = {London}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230280830_3}, isbn = {978-0-230-23885-5 978-0-230-28083-0} } @@ -507,8 +533,8 @@ @book{Torres_2013_IntroductionDynamicMacroeconomic title = {Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models}, author = {Torres, Jos{\'e} L.}, year = {2013}, - publisher = {{Vernon Press}}, - address = {{Malaga, Spain}}, + publisher = {Vernon Press}, + address = {Malaga, Spain}, abstract = {This book offers an introductory step-by-step course in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modelling. Modern macroeconomic analysis is increasingly concerned with the construction, calibration and/or estimation and simulation of DSGE models. The book is intended for graduate students as an introductory course to DSGE modelling and for those economists who would like a hands-on approach to learning the basics of modern dynamic macroeconomic modelling. The book starts with the simplest canonical neoclassical DSGE model and then gradually extends the basic framework incorporating a variety of additional features, such as consumption habit formation, investment adjustment cost, investment-specific technological change, taxes, public capital, household production, non-ricardian agents, monopolistic competition, etc. The book includes Dynare codes for the models developed that can be downloaded from the book's homepage.}, isbn = {978-1-62273-007-0}, keywords = {Equilibrium (Economics),Macroeconomics,Mathematical models} @@ -518,8 +544,8 @@ @book{Uribe.Schmitt-Grohe_2017_OpenEconomyMacroeconomics title = {Open Economy Macroeconomics}, author = {Uribe, Martin and {Schmitt-Grohe}, Stephanie}, year = {2017}, - publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}, - address = {{Princeton, NJ}}, + publisher = {Princeton University Press}, + address = {Princeton, NJ}, abstract = {Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Mart{\'i}n Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Groh{\'e} factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes.}, isbn = {978-0-691-15877-8}, keywords = {BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics,BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory,BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Finance,BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Reference,Economic policy,Macroeconomics,Political planning,POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / Economic Policy} @@ -530,8 +556,8 @@ @book{Walsh_2017_MonetaryTheoryPolicy author = {Walsh, Carl E.}, year = {2017}, edition = {Fourth edition}, - publisher = {{MIT Press}}, - address = {{London, England ; Cambridge, Massachusetts}}, + publisher = {MIT Press}, + address = {London, England ; Cambridge, Massachusetts}, abstract = {This textbook presents a comprehensive treatment of the most important topics in monetary economics, focusing on the primary models monetary economists have employed to address topics in theory and policy. Striking a balance of insight, accessibility, and rigor, the book covers the basic theoretical approaches, shows how to do simulation work with the models, and discusses the full range of frictions that economists have studied to understand the impacts of monetary policy. For the fourth edition, every chapter has been revised to improve the exposition and to reflect recent research. The new edition offers an entirely new chapter on the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, forward guidance policies, and quantitative and credit easing policies. Material on the basic new Keynesian model has been reorganized into a single chapter to provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and its policy implications. In addition, the chapter on the open economy now reflects the dominance of the new Keynesian approach. Other new material includes discussions of price adjustment, labor market frictions and unemployment, and moral hazard frictions among financial intermediaries. References and end-of-chapter problems allow readers to extend their knowledge of the topics covered. Monetary Theory and Policy continues to be the most comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of monetary economics, not only the leading text in the field but also the standard reference for academics and central bank researchers.}, isbn = {978-0-262-03581-1}, keywords = {Monetary policy,Money} @@ -542,8 +568,8 @@ @book{White_2001_AsymptoticTheoryEconometricians author = {White, Halbert}, year = {2001}, edition = {Rev. ed}, - publisher = {{Academic Press}}, - address = {{San Diego}}, + publisher = {Academic Press}, + address = {San Diego}, abstract = {The amount of financial data created every day by world stock markets, world governments, financial institutions, and other sources, is increasing at an enormous rate. Economists and financial analysts need tools to manage these large sets of data in a timely and accurate way. Classical linear models of economics have failed to deal with such large amounts of data, and asymptotic theory is the tool that economists have come to rely on for this type of data management. Large sample theory and the fundamental tools of asymptotic theory converge in this thoroughly revised edition of Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians. New material on functional central limit theory and its applications, material on cointegration, and many small points make this Revised Edition a comprehensive and unified treatment of large sample theory. The scope of the book remains the same as that of the First Edition, with sufficient material to fill a full year's course work. This edition also contains updated material on asymptotically efficient instrumental variables estimation, efficient estimation with estimated error covariance matrices, and efficient IV estimation. Exercise solutions have also been updated and expanded. Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians is intended both as a reference for practicing econometricians and financial analysts and as a textbook for graduate students taking courses in econometrics beyond the introductory level. It assumes that the reader is familiar with the basic concepts of probability and statistics as well as with calculus and linear algebra, and that the reader also has a good understanding of the classical linear model.}, isbn = {978-0-12-746652-1}, keywords = {Asymptotic theory,Econometrics} @@ -565,9 +591,9 @@ @book{Woodford_2003_InterestPricesFoundations title = {Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy}, author = {Woodford, Michael}, year = {2003}, - publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}, - address = {{Princeton, N.J. ; Woodstock, Oxfordshire [England]}}, - abstract = {With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure ``fiat'' currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime\,{\textemdash}\,one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the ``New Classical'' critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.}, + publisher = {Princeton University Press}, + address = {Princeton, N.J. ; Woodstock, Oxfordshire [England]}, + abstract = {With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure ``fiat'' currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime\,---\,one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the ``New Classical'' critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.}, isbn = {978-0-691-01049-6}, keywords = {Interet (Economie),Monetary policy,Politique economique,Politique monetaire,Prix} }