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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en"><head>
<meta charset="utf-8"/>
<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"/>
<title>Participation, Campaigns and Elections</title>
<link href="http://www.cnlawrence.com/" rel="author"/>
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<body>
<div class="reveal">
<!-- Any section element inside of this container is displayed as a slide -->
<div class="slides">
<section class="vcard">
<h1>Participation, Campaigns, and Elections</h1>
<h3><a class="url n" href="http://www.cnlawrence.com/" rel="author">
<span class="honorific-prefix">Dr.</span>
<span class="given-name">Christopher</span>
<abbr class="additional-name">N.</abbr>
<span class="family-name">Lawrence</span></a></h3>
<h4 class="org">Middle Georgia State University</h4>
<h4>POLS 1101: American Government</h4>
<h5><a id="narrationToggle" onclick="toggleAutoplay(this);return false;"
href="#">🔊 Disable Narration</a></h5>
</section>
<!-- XXX Actual slides go here -->
<section>
<h2>Who Votes?</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="12,13,15,26,31,33"
preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-01.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-01.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<img alt="Person voting in Los Angeles, California."
src="img/voting/ballot-lax.jpg" style="float: right; width: 45%"/>
<li><p>Voting rates are higher among those with
higher <b>socioeconomic status</b> (SES):</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Income</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Occupational prestige</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Education</p></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Other factors affecting likelihood of voting,
aside from SES:</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Age</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Race and ethnicity</p></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Legal Factors Depressing Turnout</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="27,52" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-02.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-02.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Potential voters must <i>register</i> in advance in most
states.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>National Voter Registration Act (“Motor
Voter”).</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Recent <b>voter identification</b> laws may
lower turnout.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Other Factors Reducing Turnout</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="51,77,95,112" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-03.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-03.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Regstration and voting is <i>optional</i>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Elections normally held on <i>workdays</i> in most
states.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Limited opportunities for early or <i>absentee</i> voting.</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>All voting by <i>mail</i> only in a few
states.</p></li>
</ul>
</li><li class="fragment"><p>Decline of <i>social connectedness</i>.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Mobilization and Turnout</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="18,29,37" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-04.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-04.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<img alt="Obama at an election rally in 2008." src="img/voting/Obama-Springsteen_Rally_in_Cleveland.JPG" style="float: right; width: 25%"/>
<li><p>Turnout depends on <i>mobilization</i> by parties and
campaigns: <b>get-out-the-vote</b> (GOTV) efforts.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Turnout lower in <i>midterm</i> and <i>off-year</i>
elections.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Turnout lowest in <i>primary elections</i> and <i>runoffs</i>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Frequent elections and lengthy ballots may
lead to <i>voter fatigue</i>.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Other Forms of Participation</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="14,19,24,27,29,32,36" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-05.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-05.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<p>Most people do not participate in politics beyond voting.</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Donating to, working on political campaigns.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Contacting elected officials.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Attending rallies and political meetings.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Participating in strikes.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Boycotting businesses or government services.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Attending political protests.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Political violence, including armed conflict.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Why Do People Vote?</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="19,26" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-06.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-06.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<img alt="Sticker reading “Don't Vote! It Only Encourages Them!”" src="img/voting/DontVote.jpg" style="float: right; width: 40%"/>
<li><p><i>Paradox of voting</i> since chances of affecting election
outcomes are small.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p><i>Costs</i> of voting appear to exceed the
expected <i>benefits</i>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>However, sense of fulfilling one's <i>civic
duty</i> may be considered a benefit.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Presidential Nominations</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="38,63,88" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-07.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-07.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Goal of presidential candidates: earn <i>party nomination</i>
by capturing a majority of the <b>delegates</b>
available.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Parties allocate delegates to states and territories
using complex formulas, including party support and
population.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Minor parties tend to use <i>state
conventions</i> to choose delegates to national
convention.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Some states
use <i>precinct <b>caucuses</b></i> to choose delegates to
county, regional, and state conventions who then choose
delegates for major parties. Notably, <b>Iowa</b>.
</p></li></ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Party Primaries</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="14,53,97" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-08.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-08.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Most states use <b>primary elections</b> to select
delegates for major parties.</p></li>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p><b>Open primaries</b> allow any
registered voter to participate, regardless of party
affiliation.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p><b>Semi-open primaries</b>
(or <b>modified open primaries</b>) are limited to
registered voters from the party and independent
voters.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p><b>Closed primaries</b> are limited to
registered voters from the party <i>only</i>.</p></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Delegate Selection Rules</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="35,49,89" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-09.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-09.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Democrats require <i>proportional</i> allocation of
delegates; generally candidates must get 15% of the vote to receive
any delegates.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Republicans tend to
favor <i>winner-takes-all</i> rules: whoever gets the most votes
statewide wins all delegates available.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Both parties reserve some delegate positions
for party leaders and elected officials (<b>PLEOs</b>);
Democrats tend to have many more of
these <b>superdelegates</b>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Democrats require <i>quotas</i> of women,
minorities, and young people among delegates; Republicans
don't.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Why So Complex?</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="16,45" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-10.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-10.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Humphrey_presidential_campaign,_1968"
><img src="img/voting/640px-Hubert_H._Humphrey_1968_presidential_campaign..jpg"
title="Hubert Humphrey on the campaign trail in 1968."
alt="Image of Hubert Humphrey campaigning during the 1968 presidential contest."
style="float: right; width: 35%; background-color: white"></a>
<li><p>Discontent with Democratic Party nomination process boiled over
at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Popular anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy bypassed for
vice president Hubert Humphrey, favored by party
leaders.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>After election, Democrats formed
the <i>McGovern-Fraser Commission</i> to reform their nomination
process; changes in state laws led to more primaries for
Republicans too.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Critiques of the Nomination Process</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="43,59" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-11.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-11.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p><b>Front-loading</b> of primary calendar has stretched out
the presidential nomination campaign; Iowa caucus now in early
January.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Privileged positions of Iowa and New
Hampshire; neither state is very representative of Democrats' base
in particular.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Expense of campaign has led to fundraising
starting years before election; the <b>invisible primary</b>
contributes to the “permanent campaign.”</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>The Electoral College</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="11,20,24,31,36,52" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-12.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-12.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<p>President chosen via the <b>Electoral College</b>:</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Each state has at least three electors.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>48 states and DC use “winner-takes-all” rule:</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Candidate with most votes
gets <i>all</i> electoral votes.</p></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Maine and Nebraska are different:</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Winner in each congressional district gets one
electoral vote each; statewide winner gets two more.</p></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="fragment"><p>If no majority (winner needs 270 of 538):
president chosen by House, VP chosen by the Senate.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>The Electoral College Since 2012</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-13.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-13.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<p class="centered"><img alt="Map of Electoral College since 2010
Census." src="img/voting/Electoral_College_2012.svgz" style="width:
85%; border-color: #fff; background-color: #fff"/></p>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Effect of the Electoral College</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="58,75" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-14.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-14.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<img alt="Attention to battleground states in 2004." src="img/voting/focus-resources.png" style="float: right; width: 30%; border-color: #fff"/>
<li><p>Electoral College system means candidates focus their campaigns
on a few <b>battleground states</b> and ignore most of the country.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>May distort politics by causing parties to focus on interests of battleground states rather than nation as a whole.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Candidate with most <i>popular</i> votes does not necessarily win the electoral vote.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Elections to the House and Senate</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="19,31,47" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-15.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-15.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Senators elected statewide (“at large”) since
ratification of <b>17th Amendment</b>; only face reelection
every six years.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>House members elected from <i>districts</i> every two years (except in small states with only one seat, where they too are
elected “at large”).
</p></li><li class="fragment"><p>Most states use <i>direct primaries</i> to choose major party nominees; some states use caucus systems.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Most states use <i>plurality elections</i>:
candidate who receives the most votes wins the seat.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Electoral Reform?</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="10,27,66" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-16.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-16.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Directly elect the president?</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Plurality winner
(e.g. <a href="http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/">National
Popular Vote Compact</a>).</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Alternatives: run-off voting; instant
run-off; approval.</p></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Proportional Representation in Congress?</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>How Voters Decide</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="21,35,59,75" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-17.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
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</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Most important factor is <b>party identification</b>
(or <i>partisanship</i>): one's sense of attachment to one of
the two major parties.</p></li>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Political scientists use seven-point
scale.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>“Strong” partisans particularly loyal.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Voters' partisanship can change over time.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Partisanship appears to “update” based on
changing political conditions and circumstances.</p></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>More Factors Affecting Voting</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="23,46,76" preload="metadata">
<source src="audio/voting/voting-18.opus" type="audio/ogg; codecs=opus"></source>
<source src="audio/voting/voting-18.mp3" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
</audio>
<ul>
<li><p><b>Retrospective voting</b>: evaluating candidates based on
past performance.</p>
<ul>
<li class="fragment"><p><b>Economic voting</b> in particular.
</p></li></ul>
</li><li class="fragment"><p>Relatively little <b>issue voting</b>
due to information costs. More likely for <i>salient</i>
or <i>valence issues</i>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p><b>Candidate attributes</b>: “character”;
temperament; appearance; personality.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Who Wins Presidential Nominations?</h2>
<audio controls data-autoplay data-timepoints="32,54" preload="metadata">
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</audio>
<ul>
<li><p>Building a “war chest” is important early on,
before contests start: the <b>invisible primary</b>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Biggest factor in nomination contests appears to
be <b>momentum</b>.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Other factors matter too: party factions,
media coverage and “expectations,” etc.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h2>Presidential Election Results</h2>
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<p>Four key factors identified by political scientists forecasting elections:
</p><ul>
<li class="fragment"><p>Partisan breakdown of the electorate.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Approval ratings of the incumbent party's president.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>State of the economy leading up to the election.</p></li>
<li class="fragment"><p>Incumbency.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section class="endmatter">
<h2>Copyright and License</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>The text and narration of these slides are an original,
creative work, Copyright © 2000–15 Christopher
N. Lawrence. You may freely use, modify, and redistribute this
slideshow under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Share
Alike 4.0 International license. To view a copy of this license,
visit <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/</a> or send a letter
to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View,
California, 94041, USA.</p></li>
<li><p>Other elements of these slides are either in the public domain
(either originally or due to lapse in copyright), are
U.S. government works not subject to copyright, or were licensed
under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike license (or a
less restrictive license, the Creative Commons Attribution license)
by their original creator.</p></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section class="endmatter">
<h2>Works Consulted</h2>
<p>The following sources were consulted or used in the production of
one or more of these slideshows, in addition to various primary
source materials generally cited in-place or otherwise obvious from
context throughout; previous editions of these works may have also
been used. Any errors or omissions remain the sole responsibility
of the author.</p>
<ul>
<li>Barbour, Christine and Gerald C. Wright. 2012. <i>Keeping the
Republic: Power and Citizenship in American Politics</i>, Brief
4th Edition. Washington: CQ Press.</li>
<li>Coleman, John J., Kenneth M. Goldstein, and William
G. Howell. 2012. <i>Cause and Consequence in American Politics.</i>
New York: Longman Pearson.</li>
<li>Fiorina, Morris P., Paul E. Peterson, Bertram D. Johnson, and
William G. Mayer. 2011. <i>America's New Democracy</i>, 6th
Edition. New York: Longman Pearson.</li>
<li>O'Connor, Karen, Larry J. Sabato, and Alixandra
B. Yanus. 2013. <i>American Government: Roots and Reform</i>, 12th
Edition. New York: Pearson.</li>
<li>Sidlow, Edward I. and Beth Henschen. 2013. <i>GOVT</i>, 4th
Edition. New York: Cengage Learning.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.electionstudies.org/">The American National
Election Studies</a>.</li>
<li>Various Wikimedia projects, including
the <a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/">Wikimedia
Commons</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>,
and <a href="http://en.wikisource.org/">Wikisource</a>.</li>
</ul>
</section>
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