LimitingBankRisk.nlogo

globals [
  banks
  ]

breed [comBanks comBank]
breed [invBanks invBank]
breed [customers customer]

customers-own[
  cMoney
  bankRisk
  customerRisk
]

invBanks-own[
  bMoney
  bankRisk
  customerRisk
]

comBanks-own[
  bMoney
  bankRisk
  customerRisk
 ]


to setup
  clear-all
  setup-patches

 set-default-shape invBanks "building institution"
 create-invBanks initial-number-invBanks
 [
   set size 1.5
   set color blue
   set bMoney 6  ;;opening value
   ;write "invBank money totals: " write bMoney
   setxy random-xcor random-ycor
 ]

 set-default-shape comBanks "house"
 create-comBanks initial-number-comBanks
 [
   set size 1.5
   set color 105
   set bMoney 5 ;; opening value
   ;write "comBank total money " write bMoney
   setxy random-xcor random-ycor
 ]

 set-default-shape customers "person"
 create-customers initial-number-customers
 [
 set size 1
 set color 125
 set cMoney 5  ;;beginning amount to deposit or invest
 ;write "customer total money " write cMoney
 setxy random-xcor random-ycor

 ]
 set banks turtles with [breed = comBanks or breed = invBanks]
 reset-ticks
end


;starts action
to go
  if not any? customers [ stop ]

  ask customers
  [
    let random-result -1 + random 3
    set customerRisk random-result
    pickABank
    deposit-money
    receive-payout
    check-customer-death
    fd 1
    ]

  ask comBanks
  [
    let rand-result -1 + random 3
    set bankRisk rand-result
    receive-deposit
    payout
    check-banks-death
    ]

  ask invBanks
  [
    check-Volcker
    receive-deposit
    payout
    check-banks-death
    ]


  ask turtles
  [ set label who
    ]

  plot-number

  tick
end


;creates patches and sets to yellow
to setup-patches
  ask patches [ set pcolor yellow ]
end

;customers chooses a bank with risk less or equal their own risk
to pickABank
  if any? banks with [ bankRisk <= customerRisk ]
  [
    move-to one-of banks
    ]

end


to step
 go
 ask banks[show bMoney]
 ask customers [show cMoney]
end


;this will check if the Volcker Rule is in effect
to check-Volcker
  if (Volcker = true) [
    let rand-result -1 + random 3
    set bankRisk rand-result
  ]
  if (Volcker = false)[
    let rand-result -2 + random 5
    set bankRisk rand-result
  ]
end


; depositing money in the bank will turn patch from yellow to green
; customers deposit money
to deposit-money
    if pcolor = yellow [
    set pcolor green
    set cMoney cMoney - 1
    ]
end

; banks receive money
to receive-deposit
    if pcolor = yellow [
    set pcolor green
    set bMoney (bMoney + 1)
    ]
end

; banks have to give half the profit to customers and keep half
to payout
  set bMoney (bMoney + (0.50 * bankRisk))
  ;set bMoney (bMoney - 1)
end

to receive-payout
  set cMoney (cMoney + (0.50 * customerRisk))
  ;set cMoney (cMoney + 1)
end


;checking that depositors and banks still have money
; if have one dollar or less to deposit, then customer becomes one of the unbanked population
to check-customer-death
    if cMoney <= 1 [ die ]
end

to check-banks-death
    if bMoney <= 1 [ die ]
end

to plot-number
  set-current-plot "Total Population"

  set-current-plot-pen "Commercial Banks"
  plot count comBanks

  set-current-plot-pen "Investment Banks"
  plot count invBanks

  set-current-plot-pen "Customers"
  plot count customers
end

;;testing
to runTests

 ; define the test parameters

  let numReps 1
  let numTicks 10

  ;parameters to run
  let numCustomerList (list 50 200)
  let numInvBankList (list 25 100)
  let numComBankList ( list 25 100)

  ; temp variable - one per parameter, plus loop control vars
  let a 0
  let b 0
  let c 0
  let i 0

  ;define the data being collected
  ;let customerSurvivalList[]
  let invBankSurvivalPercentageList[]
  let comBankSurvivalPercentageList[]

  ;label for the output
  print "Volcker Rule Model"
  print "Parameter Sweep Test"
  type "customers " print initial-number-customers
  type "investment banks " print initial-number-invBanks
  type "commercial banks " print initial-number-comBanks
  print " "

  ; run the test
  print "numCustomers, numInvBanks, numComBanks, mean survival"

  ; iterate and record results
  ;set customerSurvivalList[]
  set invBankSurvivalPercentageList[]
  set comBankSurvivalPercentageList[]

  ;foreach customerSurvivalList[
   ; set a ?
    ;set initial-number-customers a

  foreach invBankSurvivalPercentageList [ ?1 ->
    set b ?1
    set initial-number-invBanks b

  foreach comBankSurvivalPercentageList [ ??1 ->
    set c ??1
    set initial-number-comBanks c

  ; run the test
  set i 0
  while [ i < numReps][
    setup
    repeat numTicks [go]
    ;set customerSurvivalList (fput (count customers / count turtles) customerSurvivalList)
    set invBankSurvivalPercentageList (fput (count invBanks / count turtles) invBankSurvivalPercentageList)
    set comBankSurvivalPercentageList (fput (count comBanks / count turtles) comBankSurvivalPercentageList)
    set i (i + 1)
  ]

  ;compute means of observations
  ;let mc (mean customerSurvivalList)
  let mi (mean invBankSurvivalPercentageList)
  let mc (mean comBankSurvivalPercentageList)

  ;print a row of results
  type a type ","
  type b type ","
  type c type ","
  ;type mc type ","
  type mi type ","
  type mc
  print " "
  ;set customerSurvivalList []
  set invBankSurvivalPercentageList []
  set comBankSurvivalPercentageList []
  ]
  ]
 ;]

 print " "

end
@#$#@#$#@
GRAPHICS-WINDOW
232
11
663
443
-1
-1
12.82
1
10
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
-16
16
-16
16
0
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ticks
30.0

BUTTON
15
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62
NIL
setup
NIL
1
T
OBSERVER
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NIL
NIL
1

BUTTON
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NIL
go
T
1
T
OBSERVER
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NIL
NIL
1

SLIDER
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211
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initial-number-customers
initial-number-customers
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200
150.0
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1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

SLIDER
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144
212
177
initial-number-comBanks
initial-number-comBanks
0
100
100.0
1
1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

PLOT
0
237
229
362
Total Population
time-qtrs
total number
0.0
1.0
0.0
200.0
true
true
"" ""
PENS
"Commercial Banks" 1.0 0 -14070903 true "" "plot count comBanks"
"Customers" 1.0 2 -10022847 true "" "plot count customers"
"Investment Banks" 1.0 0 -5298144 true "" "plot count invBanks"

SLIDER
18
187
219
220
initial-number-invBanks
initial-number-invBanks
0
100
100.0
1
1
NIL
HORIZONTAL

SWITCH
47
69
150
102
Volcker
Volcker
1
1
-1000

BUTTON
150
28
213
62
step
step
NIL
1
T
OBSERVER
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL
1

MONITOR
15
382
95
427
# Inv Banks
count invBanks
17
1
11

MONITOR
103
383
189
428
# Com Banks
count comBanks
17
1
11

MONITOR
15
431
100
476
# Customers
count customers
17
1
11

MONITOR
703
244
786
289
% Inv Banks
count invBanks / count turtles
3
1
11

MONITOR
703
300
792
345
% Com Banks
count comBanks / count turtles
3
1
11

MONITOR
704
356
792
401
% Customers
count customers / count turtles
3
1
11

@#$#@#$#@
## WHAT IS IT?

This model explores whether investment banks would stay in business if risks were limited.  Banks' survival depends on customers depositing money. Some banks, particulary investment banks, take on more risks through proprietary trading because it increases profits.  If investment banks' risk were limited, would they be able to stay in business?

The model begins to test the investment banks' assertion that limiting risky behavior, like proprietary trading, would inhibit their global competiveness.  The Volcker Rule, as proposed in the Dodd-Frank Act, tries to address the moral hazard issue that investment banks can use depositor money to make risky investments, fail, but still get bailed-out by the U.S. government with taxpayer money.


## HOW IT WORKS

Each customer and bank is assigned random risk factors.  Each customer will choose a bank that has a risk factor equal to or less than her own risk factor.  Customers and commercial banks have the same risk factor of 1 to -1.  Since investment banks take on more risk and are larger in asset size, they have a risk factor ranging from 2 to -2, and a larger beginning balance.

Customers and banks are given an initial sum of money to begin.  Customers and commercial banks begin with a $5 balance, and investment banks begin with a $6 balance.

Customers deposit $1 in one bank each quarter, which is a tick.  Profits are split 50/50, that is 50% of the profit is given back to the customer and 50% of the profit is kept by the bank.

As customers deposit money, the background turns from yellow to green.

If the Volcker Rule switch is on, then the investment banks will have the same risk factor range, 1 to -1, as the commercial banks.

## HOW TO USE IT

Choose the number of customers and the number of commercial and investment banks with the sliders labeled INITIAL-NUMBER-CUSTOMERS, INITIAL-NUMBER-COMBANKS, INITIAL-NUMBER-INVBANKS, respectively.

Choose whether the Volcker Rule will be on or off.  If the switch is on, the risk factor of the investment banks will be the same as commercial banks, which is a range from 1 to -1.

As time progresses, the numbers and percent of each agents' total for each agent will be shown in the monitors.

## THINGS TO NOTICE

Does it make a difference in the number of investment banks failing if the Volcker Rule is on or off?

About how many ticks or quarters do the banks begin to fail?

Which banks fail faster with the Volcker Rule on or off?

How long does it take for any one of the agents to reach zero?

Do the customers and banks fail or die at a consistent rate with each other?


## THINGS TO TRY

Experiment whether the number of customers will affect how long the banks stay open.


## EXTENDING THE MODEL

The banks could expand and contract in size, or multiply, according to their money balance, if the balance reached a certain threshold.  Also could add more depositors when certain level of money is attained.


Stratify the income levels of the depositors to determine the tipping point of when depositors become part of the "unbanked" population.

## NETLOGO FEATURES

A STEP function was included to show customer and bank balances.

The risk factors can be seen in the INSPECT feature of Netlogo.

In the code tab, the risk factors were generated by creating a variable with the low end of the range of numbers and counting the total number of available numbers to choose.  For example, the commercial banks risk range is from 1 to -1.  The code is

	let rand-result -1 + random 3

The RUNTESTS code does not seem to be working.

## RELATED MODELS

This model acts like the Wolf Sheep Predation model.

## CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Referred to code used in Tutorial #3 and the Wolf Sheep Predation model.
@#$#@#$#@
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@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 6.1.0
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
<experiments>
  <experiment name="experiment5agents" repetitions="1" runMetricsEveryStep="true">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <metric>count turtles</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comInvBanks">
      <value value="5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment" repetitions="5" runMetricsEveryStep="true">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <metric>count turtles</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="60"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="20"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 1" repetitions="1" runMetricsEveryStep="true">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <metric>count turtles</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="20"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 1" repetitions="10" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <exitCondition>count customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count turtles</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="20"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 2" repetitions="10" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="20"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 200 customers" repetitions="10" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="200"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 200 customers 100 banks" repetitions="10" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="200"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 3 d 200 cust 100 banks 4000" repetitions="20" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="4000"/>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="200"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 5d true 400 banks 100 custs 4000 ticks" repetitions="20" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="4000"/>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="400"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="400"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 2 dtrue 400 cust 100 banks 4000" repetitions="20" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="4000"/>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="400"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 6 b false 50 cust 100 banks 2000" repetitions="20" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="2000"/>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="false"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 9 d true 50 100 50 4000" repetitions="20" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="4000"/>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="100"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 100yr true" repetitions="2" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="400"/>
    <exitCondition>customers = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count invBanks</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks</metric>
    <metric>count customers</metric>
    <metric>count invBanks / count turtles</metric>
    <metric>count comBanks / count turtles</metric>
    <metric>count customers / count turtles</metric>
    <steppedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks" first="25" step="25" last="100"/>
    <steppedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks" first="25" step="25" last="100"/>
    <steppedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers" first="50" step="50" last="200"/>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="true"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
  <experiment name="experiment 11" repetitions="1" runMetricsEveryStep="true">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <metric>count turtles</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-comBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-invBanks">
      <value value="50"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-customers">
      <value value="88"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="Volcker">
      <value value="false"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
</experiments>
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