noForksPaper.txt

Aircraft imaging of biomass burning aerosol over W. Africa and Aisa


# Author
Will Rowe, University of Manchester
Sam Humphrey, University of Manchester


# Abstract
ECMWF helps to probe impact of aerosols in West Africa


# Introduction 
Thanks to natural processes and human activities, the atmosphere contains more than just the oxygen and nitrogen that are the major contributors to its chemical profile. Volcanic eruptions, human-caused and naturally occurring fires, erosion, sea spray, dust storms, and the burning of fossil fuels all contribute ”something extra” to the atmospheric mix. For scientists studying Earth and its interrelated systems, knowing where these atmospheric “extras” come from, how widespread they are, and where they end up is the first step to figuring out what effect they might have on climate, people, and other living things. (someone...). Add some new content here

Will did some work on big data and stuff. For aerosols, the size of the particle is a key indication of the source of the particles. Large particles tend to be dust from deserts like northern Africa’s Sahara, or salt crystals from wind-whipped white caps on the ocean. Small, fine, particles usually come from combustion—the burning of vegetation and of fossil fuels. Carbon monoxide is a second atmospheric signal of combustion of those same types of carbon-based fuels.

# Methodology 
Small-scale observational studies on the West African cities, conducted by the United Nations Environmental Programme, suggest that the pollutants are already substantially above World Health Organization guidelines. However, the DACCIWA report states that there is a total lack of data in the region.

Unlike many European cities (London’s records have a satellite resolution of 30 metres), there are no emissions inventories for African locations. ‘Given the short lifetime of many pollutants, this makes estimating human exposure very challenging,’ reads the report.

‘Ultimately, what we want to be able to do is make predictions about what we think will happen on a five, ten and 50-year timescale,’ says Evans. He fears that neglecting the issue could further endanger health and food security in the future.

# Results: Impact of aerosols

ECMWF’s contribution to DACCIWA will include providing forecasts for the June–July field campaign in collaboration with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) campaign support team (Luke Jones and Miha Razinger). ECMWF will also design and run ad hoc experiments for West Africa. These will include medium-range runs with interactive aerosols using the Composition-Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) and seasonal runs based on the operational monthly ensemble forecasts. The experiments will serve to assess the importance of aerosols for the West African Monsoon onset and development. Work towards this goal has already started and has led to a multi-year run (2003–2015) with interactive aerosols, which is currently being compared with the operational monthly system. Preliminary results show that including aerosols in the model has a positive impact on weather predictions by reducing the wet bias in precipitation over land in SWA. Forecasts for other areas, such as India and the West Atlantic, also appear to improve in the interactive aerosol run. More cases are needed to assess the impact of including aerosols on the skill of the monthly forecast and to fully evaluate aerosol fields over seasonal scales.




# Discussion & Conclusion
The location and time of year also give scientists information about the source of the aerosols: December is a time for large-scale agricultural burning in Africa and Southeast Asia. People set fire to old crops and also to forests to clear new land for planting and grazing. In places north of the equator, like China, colder winter temperatures cause people to burn more coal, wood, and other carbon-based fuels for heat and energy.

Scientists have coined the term “brown cloud” to describe the mixture of aerosols and pollution like ozone and carbon monoxide that flow outward from Asia into the Indian and Pacific Oceans. To read more about the phenomenon, see a related story about Haze Along the Himalaya Front Range.

Therre is more to do, we need more money... 


# Figures
DACCIWA field campaign. Black stars mark the three DACCIWA supersites at Kumasi, Ghana; Savé, Benin; and Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Red dots mark synoptic weather stations. The size of the dots is proportional to the available number of reports in the WMO Global Telecommunication System from 1998 to 2012. (Source: P. Knippertz et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., September 2015, 1451–1460)


# Acknowledgements
I'd like to thank Will for not running away already!