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G18.xml
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<collection id="G18">
<volume id="1">
<meta>
<booktitle>Groundwater, Volume 57, Issue 1</booktitle>
<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Comment on “Groundwater Pumping Is a Significant Unrecognized Contributor to Global Anthropogenic Element Cycles”</title>
<author>
<first>Grant</first>
<last>Ferguson</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jennifer C.</first>
<last>McIntosh</last>
</author>
<abstract>The ideas presented by Stahl (2018) are intriguing. There is a wealth of information that supports that groundwater pumping has perturbed the hydrologic cycle at a global scale (Konikow 2011; Rodell et al. 2018) and perturbations to global elemental cycles would not be unexpected. However, the analysis presented by Stahl (2018) is problematic. Stahl assumes that the 45% of produced waters from oil field operations that were not used in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) are released into the more active portion of the hydrological cycle based on 2007 figures for the United States from Clark and Veil (2009). This figure is substantially lower in reality. Clark and Veil (2009) report that 38.2% of produced waters were injected into nonproducing strata. This injection occurs almost exclusively through Class II disposal wells, which are typically installed in saline aquifers (EPA 2018). Similar practices have been noted in Canada, where there has been a net gain in the amount of water in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (Ferguson 2015). In addition, Stahl states that 45% of Shell’s produced water is discharged at the surface based on an estimate from Khatib and Verbeek (2003). However, that study also noted that much of this discharge was to the ocean as part of offshore drilling activities. The overestimation of addition of produced water to the active portion of global elemental cycles will have a notable effect on estimates of fluxes of elements such as Li, Na, Cl, and Ca, which are found in high concentrations</abstract>
<url hash="7b729893">G18-1001</url>
<pages>82-82</pages>
<doi>10.1111/gwat.12840</doi>
<bibkey>Ferguson-2018-Comment</bibkey>
<project>prj31</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="2">
<meta>
<booktitle>Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 45, Issue 10</booktitle>
<publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>The Persistence of Brines in Sedimentary Basins</title>
<author>
<first>Grant</first>
<last>Ferguson</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jennifer C.</first>
<last>McIntosh</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Stephen E.</first>
<last>Grasby</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>M. Jim</first>
<last>Hendry</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Scott</first>
<last>Jasechko</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Matthew B.J.</first>
<last>Lindsay</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Elco</first>
<last>Luijendijk</last>
</author>
<abstract>Brines are commonly found at depth in sedimentary basins. Many of these brines are known to be connate waters that have persisted since the early Paleozoic Era. Yet questions remain about their distribution and mechanisms for retention at depth in the Earth's crust. Here we demonstrate that there is insufficient topography to drive these dense fluids from the bottom of deep sedimentary basins. Our assessment based on driving force ratio indicates that sedimentary basins with driving force ratio > 1 contain connate waters and frequently host large evaporite deposits. These stagnant conditions appear to be relatively stable over geological time and insensitive to factors such as glaciations, erosion, compaction, and hydrocarbon generation.</abstract>
<url hash="69c7377d">G18-2001</url>
<pages>4851-4858</pages>
<doi>10.1029/2018gl078409</doi>
<bibkey>Ferguson-2018-The</bibkey>
<project>prj31</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="3">
<meta>
<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Issue 11</booktitle>
<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Competition for shrinking window of low salinity groundwater</title>
<author>
<first>Grant</first>
<last>Ferguson</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jennifer C.</first>
<last>McIntosh</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Debra</first>
<last>Perrone</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Scott</first>
<last>Jasechko</last>
</author>
<abstract>Groundwater resources are being stressed from the top down and bottom up. Declining water tables and near-surface contamination are driving groundwater users to construct deeper wells in many US aquifer systems. This has been a successful short-term mitigation measure where deep groundwater is fresh and free of contaminants. Nevertheless, vertical salinity profiles are not well-constrained at continental-scales. In many regions, oil and gas activities use pore spaces for energy production and waste disposal. Here we quantify depths that aquifer systems transition from fresh-to-brackish and where oil and gas activities are widespread in sedimentary basins across the United States. Fresh-brackish transitions occur at relatively shallow depths of just a few hundred meters, particularly in eastern US basins. We conclude that fresh groundwater is less abundant in several key US basins than previously thought; therefore drilling deeper wells to access fresh groundwater resources is not feasible extensively across the continent. Our findings illustrate that groundwater stores are being depleted not only by excessive withdrawals, but due to injection, and potentially contamination, from the oil and gas industry in areas of deep fresh and brackish groundwater.</abstract>
<url hash="d17b5018">G18-3001</url>
<pages>114013</pages>
<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aae6d8</doi>
<bibkey>Ferguson-2018-Competition</bibkey>
<project>prj31</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="4">
<meta>
<booktitle>Hydrogeology Journal, Volume 27, Issue 1</booktitle>
<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Salt dissolution and permeability in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin</title>
<author>
<first>Blake</first>
<last>Woroniuk</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Kristl</first>
<last>Tipton</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Stephen E.</first>
<last>Grasby</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jennifer C.</first>
<last>McIntosh</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Grant</first>
<last>Ferguson</last>
</author>
<abstract>Extensive dissolution of evaporites has occurred in the Williston Basin, Canada, but it is unclear what effect this has had on bulk permeability. The bulk of this dissolution has occurred from the Prairie Evaporite Formation, which is predominantly halite and potash. However, minor evaporite beds and porosity infilling have also been removed from the overlying Dawson Bay and Souris River formations, which are predominantly carbonates. This study examines whether permeability values in the Dawson Bay and Souris River formations have been affected by dissolution, by analyzing 142 drillstem tests from those formations. For both the Dawson Bay and Souris River formations, the highest permeabilities were found in areas where halite dissolution had occurred. However, the mean permeabilities were not statistically different in areas of halite dissolution compared to those containing connate water. Subsequent precipitation of anhydrite is known to have clogged pore spaces and fractures in some instances. Geochemical relationships found here support this idea but there is no statistically significant relationship between anhydrite saturation and permeability. Geomechanical effects, notably closure of fractures due to collapse, could be a mitigating factor. The results indicate that coupling dissolution and precipitation to changes in permeability in regional flow models remains a significant challenge.</abstract>
<url hash="4cac68a1">G18-4001</url>
<pages>161-170</pages>
<doi>10.1007/s10040-018-1871-6</doi>
<bibkey>Woroniuk-2018-Salt</bibkey>
<project>prj31</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="5">
<meta>
<booktitle>Hydrological Processes, Volume 32, Issue 12</booktitle>
<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Storage, mixing, and fluxes of water in the critical zone across northern environments inferred by stable isotopes of soil water</title>
<author>
<first>Matthias</first>
<last>Sprenger</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Doerthe</first>
<last>Tetzlaff</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>J. M.</first>
<last>Buttle</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Sean K.</first>
<last>Carey</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>J. P.</first>
<last>McNamara</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Hjalmar</first>
<last>Laudon</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Nadine J.</first>
<last>Shatilla</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Chris</first>
<last>Soulsby</last>
</author>
<abstract>We thank Audrey Innes for isotope analysis at University of Aberdeen for Bruntland Burn and Krycklan sites, Johannes Tiwari (SLU) for isotope sampling in Krycklan, Pernilla Lofvenius (SLU) for providing PET data for Krycklan (via SITES), and Jeff McDonnell and Kim Janzen (University of Saskatchewan) for soil water isotope analysis for the Dorset and Wolf Creek sites. The Krycklan part was funded by the KAW Branch-Point project. We acknowledge the funding from the European Research Council (ERC, project GA 335910 VeWa). We thank the Editor and three anonymous reviewers for their critical comments during the peer-review process.</abstract>
<url hash="f4100fc4">G18-5001</url>
<pages>1720-1737</pages>
<doi>10.1002/hyp.13135</doi>
<bibkey>Sprenger-2018-Storage,</bibkey>
<project>prj28</project>
</paper>
<paper id="2">
<title>Using stable isotopes to estimate travel times in a data-sparse Arctic catchment: Challenges and possible solutions</title>
<author>
<first>Doerthe</first>
<last>Tetzlaff</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Thea Ilaria</first>
<last>Piovano</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Pertti</first>
<last>Ala‐aho</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Aaron</first>
<last>Smith</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Sean K.</first>
<last>Carey</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Philip</first>
<last>Marsh</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Philip A.</first>
<last>Wookey</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Lorna E.</first>
<last>Street</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Chris</first>
<last>Soulsby</last>
</author>
<abstract>Use of isotopes to quantify the temporal dynamics of the transformation of precipitation into run-off has revealed fundamental new insights into catchment flow paths and mixing processes that influence biogeochemical transport. However, catchments underlain by permafrost have received little attention in isotope-based studies, despite their global importance in terms of rapid environmental change. These high-latitude regions offer limited access for data collection during critical periods (e.g., early phases of snowmelt). Additionally, spatio-temporal variable freeze-thaw cycles, together with the development of an active layer, have a time variant influence on catchment hydrology. All of these characteristics make the application of traditional transit time estimation approaches challenging. We describe an isotope-based study undertaken to provide a preliminary assessment of travel times at Siksik Creek in the western Canadian Arctic. We adopted a model-data fusion approach to estimate the volumes and isotopic characteristics of snowpack and meltwater. Using samples collected in the spring/summer, we characterize the isotopic composition of summer rainfall, melt from snow, soil water, and stream water. In addition, soil moisture dynamics and the temporal evolution of the active layer profile were monitored. First approximations of transit times were estimated for soil and streamwater compositions using lumped convolution integral models and temporally variable inputs including snowmelt, ice thaw, and summer rainfall. Comparing transit time estimates using a variety of inputs revealed that transit time was best estimated using all available inflows (i.e., snowmelt, soil ice thaw, and rainfall). Early spring transit times were short, dominated by snowmelt and soil ice thaw and limited catchment storage when soils are predominantly frozen. However, significant and increasing mixing with water in the active layer during the summer resulted in more damped steam water variation and longer mean travel times (~1.5 years). The study has also highlighted key data needs to better constrain travel time estimates in permafrost catchments.</abstract>
<url hash="6d195e7e">G18-5002</url>
<pages>1936-1952</pages>
<doi>10.1002/hyp.13146</doi>
<bibkey>Tetzlaff-2018-Using</bibkey>
<project>prj28</project>
</paper>
<paper id="3">
<title>Spatio-temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end-member - How does it affect hydrograph separation results?</title>
<author>
<first>Jan</first>
<last>Schmieder</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jakob</first>
<last>Garvelmann</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Thomas</first>
<last>Marke</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Ulrich</first>
<last>Strasser</last>
</author>
<abstract>Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km2, glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.</abstract>
<url hash="69c7377d">G18-2001</url>
<pages>1828-1843</pages>
<doi>10.1002/hyp.11628</doi>
<bibkey>Schmieder-2018-Spatio-temporal</bibkey>
<project>prj46</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="6">
<meta>
<booktitle>Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 19, Issue 2</booktitle>
<publisher>American Meteorological Society</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Scale Interactions in Turbulence for Mountain Blowing Snow</title>
<author>
<first>Nikolas</first>
<last>Aksamit</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>John W.</first>
<last>Pomeroy</last>
</author>
<abstract>Abstract Blowing snow particle transport responds to wind motions across many length and time scales. This coupling is nonlinear by nature and complicated in atmospheric flows where eddies of many sizes are superimposed. In mountainous terrain, wind flow descriptions are further complicated by topographically influenced or enhanced flows. To improve the current understanding and modeling of blowing snow transport in complex terrain, statistically significant timing and frequencies of wind–snow coupling were identified in high-frequency observations of surface blowing snow and near-surface turbulence from a mountain field site in the Canadian Rockies. Investigation of the mechanisms influencing near-surface, high-frequency turbulence and snow concentration fluctuations provided strong evidence for amplitude modulation from large-scale motions. The large-scale atmospheric motions modulating near-surface turbulence and snow transport were then compared to specific quadrant analysis structures recently identified as relevant for outdoor blowing snow transport. The results suggest that large atmospheric structures modulate the amplitude of high-frequency turbulence and modify turbulence statistics typically used to model blowing snow. Additionally, blowing snow was preferentially redistributed under the footprint of these same sweep motions, with both low- and high-frequency coherence increasing in their presence.</abstract>
<url hash="e6a5a02a">G18-6001</url>
<pages>305-320</pages>
<doi>10.1175/jhm-d-17-0179.1</doi>
<bibkey>Aksamit-2018-Scale</bibkey>
<project>prj36</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="7">
<meta>
<booktitle>Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 45, Issue 15</booktitle>
<publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Global Estimates of River Flow Wave Travel Times and Implications for Low‐Latency Satellite Data</title>
<author>
<first>George H.</first>
<last>Allen</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Cédric H.</first>
<last>David</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Konstantinos M.</first>
<last>Andreadis</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Faisal</first>
<last>Hossain</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>J. S.</first>
<last>Famiglietti</last>
</author>
<abstract>Earth‐orbiting satellites provide valuable observations of upstream river conditions worldwide. These observations can be used in real‐time applications like early flood warning systems and reservoir operations, provided they are made available to users with sufficient lead time. Yet the temporal requirements for access to satellite‐based river data remain uncharacterized for time‐sensitive applications. Here we present a global approximation of flow wave travel time to assess the utility of existing and future low‐latency/near‐real‐time satellite products, with an emphasis on the forthcoming SWOT satellite mission. We apply a kinematic wave model to a global hydrography data set and find that global flow waves traveling at their maximum speed take a median travel time of 6, 4, and 3 days to reach their basin terminus, the next downstream city, and the next downstream dam, respectively. Our findings suggest that a recently proposed ≤2‐day data latency for a low‐latency SWOT product is potentially useful for real‐time river applications.</abstract>
<url hash="5e19c74f">G18-7001</url>
<pages>7551-7560</pages>
<doi>10.1029/2018gl077914</doi>
<bibkey>Allen-2018-Global</bibkey>
<project>prj46</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="8">
<meta>
<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Issue 3</booktitle>
<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system</title>
<author>
<first>Sally</first>
<last>Archibald</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Caroline E. R.</first>
<last>Lehmann</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Claire M.</first>
<last>Belcher</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>William J.</first>
<last>Bond</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Ross A.</first>
<last>Bradstock</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Anne-Laure</first>
<last>Daniau</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Kyle G.</first>
<last>Dexter</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Elisabeth J.</first>
<last>Forrestel</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Michelle</first>
<last>Greve</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Tianhua</first>
<last>He</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Steven I.</first>
<last>Higgins</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>William A.</first>
<last>Hoffmann</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Byron B.</first>
<last>Lamont</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Daniel J.</first>
<last>McGlinn</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Glenn R.</first>
<last>Moncrieff</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Colin P.</first>
<last>Osborne</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Juli G.</first>
<last>Pausas</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Owen</first>
<last>Price</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Brad S.</first>
<last>Ripley</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Brendan M.</first>
<last>Rogers</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Dylan W.</first>
<last>Schwilk</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Marcelo Fragomeni</first>
<last>Simon</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>M. R.</first>
<last>Turetsky</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Guido R. van der</first>
<last>Werf</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Amy E.</first>
<last>Zanne</last>
</author>
<abstract>Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and
matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat
fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel
moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry,
climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated
by fuels—namely plants and their litter—that are the product of evolutionary and ecological
processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants have evolved
traits that both tolerate and promote fire numerous times and across diverse clades. Here we outline a
conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with
climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological
processes scale to impact biogeochemical and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several
research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution
in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire
and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates
evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences.</abstract>
<url hash="067ad719">G18-8001</url>
<pages>033003</pages>
<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ead</doi>
<bibkey>Archibald-2018-Biological</bibkey>
<project>prj29</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="9">
<meta>
<booktitle>Water Research, Volume 139</booktitle>
<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Modeling the exposure of wild fish to endocrine active chemicals: Potential linkages of total estrogenicity to field-observed intersex</title>
<author>
<first>Maricor J.</first>
<last>Arlos</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Wayne</first>
<last>Parker</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>José R.</first>
<last>Bicudo</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Pam</first>
<last>Law</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Keegan A.</first>
<last>Hicks</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Meghan</first>
<last>Fuzzen</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Susan A.</first>
<last>Andrews</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mark R.</first>
<last>Servos</last>
</author>
<abstract>Decades of studies on endocrine disruption have suggested the need to manage the release of key estrogens from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). However, the proposed thresholds are below the detection limits of most routine chemical analysis, thereby restricting the ability of watershed managers to assess the environmental exposure appropriately. In this study, we demonstrated the utility of a mechanistic model to address the data gaps on estrogen exposure. Concentrations of the prominent estrogenic contaminants in wastewaters (estrone, estradiol, and ethinylestradiol) were simulated in the Grand River in southern Ontario (Canada) for nine years, including a period when major WWTP upgrades occurred. The predicted concentrations expressed as total estrogenicity (E2 equivalent concentrations) were contrasted to a key estrogenic response (i.e., intersex) in rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum), a wild sentinel fish species. A predicted total estrogenicity in the river of ≥10 ng/L E2 equivalents was associated with high intersex incidence and severity, whereas concentrations <0.1 ng/L E2 equivalents were associated with minimal intersex expression. Exposure to a predicted river concentration of 0.4 ng/L E2 equivalents, the environmental quality standard (EQS) proposed by the European Union for estradiol, was associated with 34% (95% CI:30-38) intersex incidence and a very low severity score of 0.6 (95% CI:0.5-0.7). This exposure is not predicted to cause adverse effects in rainbow darter. The analyses completed in this study were only based on the predicted presence of three major estrogens (E1, E2, EE2), so caution must be exercised when interpreting the results. Nevertheless, this study illustrates the use of models for exposure assessment, especially when measured data are not available.</abstract>
<url hash="bec6b07c">G18-9001</url>
<pages>187-197</pages>
<doi>10.1016/j.watres.2018.04.005</doi>
<bibkey>Arlos-2018-Modeling</bibkey>
<project>prj23</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="10">
<meta>
<booktitle>Science of The Total Environment, Volume 610-611</booktitle>
<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Multi-year prediction of estrogenicity in municipal wastewater effluents</title>
<author>
<first>Maricor J.</first>
<last>Arlos</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Wayne</first>
<last>Parker</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>José R.</first>
<last>Bicudo</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Pam</first>
<last>Law</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Patricija</first>
<last>Marjan</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Susan A.</first>
<last>Andrews</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mark R.</first>
<last>Servos</last>
</author>
<abstract>In this study, the estrogenicity of two major wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents located in the central reaches of the Grand River watershed in southern Ontario was estimated using population demographics, excretion rates, and treatment plant-specific removals. Due to the lack of data on estrogen concentrations from direct measurements at WWTPs, the treatment efficiencies through the plants were estimated using the information obtained from an effects-directed analysis. The results show that this approach could effectively estimate the estrogenicity of WWTP effluents, both before and after major infrastructure upgrades were made at the Kitchener WWTP. The model was then applied to several possible future scenarios including population growth and river low flow conditions. The scenario analyses showed that post-upgrade operation of the Kitchener WWTP will not release highly estrogenic effluent under the 2041 projected population increase (36%) or summer low flows. Similarly, the Waterloo WWTP treatment operation is also expected to improve once the upgrades have been fully implemented and is expected to effectively treat estrogens even under extreme scenarios of population growth and river flows. The developed model may be employed to support decision making on wastewater management strategies designed for environmental protection, especially on reducing the endocrine effects in fish exposed to WWTP effluents.</abstract>
<url hash="f3ba6e90">G18-10001</url>
<pages>1103-1112</pages>
<doi>10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.171</doi>
<bibkey>Arlos-2018-Multi-year</bibkey>
<project>prj23</project>
</paper>
<paper id="2">
<title>A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems</title>
<author>
<first>François</first>
<last>Robinne</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Kevin D.</first>
<last>Bladon</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Carol</first>
<last>Miller</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Marc‐André</first>
<last>Parisien</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jérôme</first>
<last>Mathieu</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mike</first>
<last>Flannigan</last>
</author>
<abstract>The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts.</abstract>
<url hash="6ab33f2a">G18-10002</url>
<pages>1193-1206</pages>
<doi>10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.112</doi>
<bibkey>Robinne-2018-A</bibkey>
<project>prj4</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="11">
<meta>
<booktitle>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 22, Issue 6</booktitle>
<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Historical drought patterns over Canada and their teleconnections with large-scale climate signals</title>
<author>
<first>Zilefac Elvis</first>
<last>Asong</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>H. S.</first>
<last>Wheater</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Barrie</first>
<last>Bonsal</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Saman</first>
<last>Razavi</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Sopan</first>
<last>Kurkute</last>
</author>
<abstract>Abstract. Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems, and health. However, nationwide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950–2013. The Mann–Kendall test, rotated empirical orthogonal function, continuous wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified – the Canadian Prairies and northern central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8 and 32 months in the Prairie region and between 8 and 40 months in the northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally with the Pacific–North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, their duration, and how often they occur.</abstract>
<url hash="4b0609f5">G18-11001</url>
<pages>3105-3124</pages>
<doi>10.5194/hess-22-3105-2018</doi>
<bibkey>Asong-2018-Historical</bibkey>
<project>prj20</project>
</paper>
<paper id="2">
<title>On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions</title>
<author>
<first>Gonzalo</first>
<last>Sapriza-Azuri</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Pablo</first>
<last>Gamazo</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Saman</first>
<last>Razavi</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>H. S.</first>
<last>Wheater</last>
</author>
<abstract>Abstract. Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.</abstract>
<url hash="d20f584f">G18-11002</url>
<pages>3295-3309</pages>
<doi>10.5194/hess-22-3295-2018</doi>
<bibkey>Sapriza-Azuri-2018-On</bibkey>
<project>prj20</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="12">
<meta>
<booktitle>Ecosphere, Volume 9, Issue 10</booktitle>
<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou</title>
<author>
<first>Quinn E.</first>
<last>Barber</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Marc‐André</first>
<last>Parisien</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Ellen</first>
<last>Whitman</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Diana</first>
<last>Stralberg</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Chris J.</first>
<last>Johnson</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Martin‐Hugues</first>
<last>St‐Laurent</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Evan R.</first>
<last>DeLancey</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>David T.</first>
<last>Price</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Dominique</first>
<last>Arseneault</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Xianli</first>
<last>Wang</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mike D.</first>
<last>Flannigan</last>
</author>
<abstract>Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8–15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat-quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo-edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from >1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long-term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta.</abstract>
<url hash="59b3a61b">G18-12001</url>
<pages>e02472</pages>
<doi>10.1002/ecs2.2472</doi>
<bibkey>Barber-2018-Potential</bibkey>
<project>prj4</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="13">
<meta>
<booktitle>Weather and Forecasting, Volume 33, Issue 3</booktitle>
<publisher>American Meteorological Society</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Improving the Explicit Prediction of Freezing Rain in a Kilometer-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction Model</title>
<author>
<first>Agnieszka</first>
<last>Barszcz</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jason A.</first>
<last>Milbrandt</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Julie M.</first>
<last>Thériault</last>
</author>
<abstract>Abstract A freezing rain event, in which the Meteorological Centre of Canada’s 2.5-km numerical weather prediction system significantly underpredicted the quantity of freezing rain, is examined. The prediction system models precipitation types explicitly, directly from the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme. It was determined that the freezing rain underprediction for this case was due primarily to excessive refreezing of rain, originating from melting snow and graupel, in and under the temperature inversion of the advancing warm front ultimately depleting the supply of rain reaching the surface. The refreezing was caused from excessive collisional freezing between rain and graupel. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the effects of a temperature threshold for collisional freezing and on varying the values of the collection efficiencies between rain and ice-phase hydrometeors. It was shown that by reducing the rain–graupel collection efficiency and by imposing a temperature threshold of −5°C, above which collisional freezing is not permitted, excessive rain–graupel collection and graupel formation can be controlled in the microphysics scheme, leading to an improved simulation of freezing rain at the surface.</abstract>
<url hash="e10fc17e">G18-13001</url>
<pages>767-782</pages>
<doi>10.1175/waf-d-17-0136.1</doi>
<bibkey>Barszcz-2018-Improving</bibkey>
<project>prj5</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="14">
<meta>
<booktitle>Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 19, Issue 4</booktitle>
<publisher>American Meteorological Society</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Probable Maximum Precipitation: Its Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bivariate Extreme Value Analysis</title>
<author>
<first>M. A. Ben</first>
<last>Alaya</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Francis W.</first>
<last>Zwiers</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>X.</first>
<last>Zhang</last>
</author>
<abstract>Abstract Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate the probable maximum flood (PMF), both of which are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. The usual operational procedure for obtaining PMP values, which is based on a moisture maximization approach, produces a single PMP value without an estimate of its uncertainty. We therefore propose a probabilistic framework based on a bivariate extreme value distribution to aid in the interpretation of these PMP values. This 1) allows us to evaluate estimates from the operational procedure relative to an estimate of a plausible distribution of PMP values, 2) enables an evaluation of the uncertainty of these values, and 3) provides clarification of the impact of the assumption that a PMP event occurs under conditions of maximum moisture availability. Results based on a 50-yr Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) simulation over North America reveal that operational PMP estimates are highly uncertain and suggest that the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability may not be valid. Specifically, in the climate simulated by CanRCM4, the operational approach applied to 50-yr data records produces a value that is similar to the value that is obtained in our approach when assuming complete dependence between extreme precipitation efficiency and extreme precipitable water. In contrast, our results suggest weaker than complete dependence. Estimates from the operational approach are 15% larger on average over North America than those obtained when accounting for the dependence between precipitation efficiency and precipitable water extremes realistically. A difference of this magnitude may have serious implications in engineering design.</abstract>
<url hash="7cd8f9c7">G18-14001</url>
<pages>679-694</pages>
<doi>10.1175/jhm-d-17-0110.1</doi>
<bibkey>Ben Alaya-2018-Probable</bibkey>
<project>prj5</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="15">
<meta>
<booktitle>IGARSS 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium</booktitle>
<publisher>IEEE</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Contributions of Geophysical and C-Band SAR Data for Estimation of Field Scale Soil Moisture</title>
<author>
<first>Aaron</first>
<last>Berg</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mitchell</first>
<last>Krafczek</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Daniel</first>
<last>Clewley</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>J.</first>
<last>Whitcomb</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Ruzbeh</first>
<last>Akbar</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Mahta</first>
<last>Moghaddam</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Heather</first>
<last>McNarin</last>
</author>
<abstract>In this study we evaluate a Random Forest (RF) model for characterizing the spatial variability of soil moisture based on model derived from in situ soil moisture samples, geophysical data and RADAR observations. The RF model is run with and without C-band SAR backscatter to understand the importance of the inclusion of SAR data for mapping of soil moisture at field scale. The inclusion of SAR data in the RF resulted in a modest improvement however the geophysical parameters (e.g. soil types and terrain properties) were of greater importance.</abstract>
<url hash="c4649ea2">G18-15001</url>
<doi>10.1109/igarss.2018.8517551</doi>
<bibkey>Berg-2018-Contributions</bibkey>
<project>prj42</project>
</paper>
<paper id="2">
<title>Application of Photon Recollision Probability Theory for Compatibility Check Between Foliage Clumping and Leaf Area Index Products Obtained from Earth Observation Data</title>
<author>
<first>Jan</first>
<last>Písek</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Henning</first>
<last>Buddenbaum</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Fernando</first>
<last>Camacho</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Joachim</first>
<last>Hill</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jennifer</first>
<last>Jensen</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Holger</first>
<last>Lange</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Zhili</first>
<last>Liu</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Arndt</first>
<last>Piayda</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Yonghua</first>
<last>Qu</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Olivier</first>
<last>Roupsard</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Shawn</first>
<last>Serbin</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Svein</first>
<last>Solberg</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Oliver</first>
<last>Sonnentag</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Anne</first>
<last>Thimonier</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Francesco</first>
<last>Vuolo</last>
</author>
<abstract>Clumping index (CI) is a measure of foliage aggregation relative to a random distribution of leaves in space. The CI can help with estimating fractions of sunlit and shaded leaves for a given value of leaf area index (LAI). Both the CI and LAI can be obtained from global Earth Observing (EO) systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). Here, the compatibility between CI and LAI products derived from EO data is examined independently using the theory of spectral invariants, also referred to as photon recollision probability theory (i.e. ‘ $p$ -theory’), along with raw LAI-2000/2200 Plant Canopy Analyzer data from 75 sites distributed across a range of plant functional types (PFTs). The $p$ -theory describes the probability (p-value) that a photon, having intercepted an element in the canopy, will recollide with another canopy element rather than escape the canopy. Our results indicate that the integration of empirically-based CI maps with the MODIS LAI product is feasible, providing a potential means to improve the accuracy of LAI EO data products. Given the strong results for the large range of PFTs explored here, we demonstrate the capacity to obtain p-values for any location solely from EO data. This is relevant for future applications of the photon recollision probability concept for global and local monitoring of vegetation using EO data.</abstract>
<url hash="4cac68a1">G18-4001</url>
<doi>10.1109/igarss.2018.8518535</doi>
<bibkey>Pisek-2018-Application</bibkey>
<project>prj29</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="16">
<meta>
<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Issue 12</booktitle>
<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
<address/>
<year>2018</year>
</meta>
<paper id="1">
<title>Quantifying the effect of forest age in annual net forest carbon balance</title>
<author>
<first>Simon</first>
<last>Besnard</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Nuno</first>
<last>Carvalhais</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>M. Altaf</first>
<last>Arain</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Andrew</first>
<last>Black</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Sytze de</first>
<last>Bruin</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Nina</first>
<last>Buchmann</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Alessandro</first>
<last>Cescatti</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Jiquan</first>
<last>Chen</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>J.G.P.W.</first>
<last>Clevers</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Ankur R.</first>
<last>Desai</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Christopher M.</first>
<last>Gough</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Kateřina</first>
<last>Havránková</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Martin</first>
<last>Herold</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Lukas</first>
<last>Hörtnagl</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Martin</first>
<last>Jung</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Alexander</first>
<last>Knohl</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Bart</first>
<last>Kruijt</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Lenka</first>
<last>Krupková</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Beverly E.</first>
<last>Law</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Anders</first>
<last>Lindroth</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Asko</first>
<last>Noormets</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Olivier</first>
<last>Roupsard</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>R.</first>
<last>Steinbrecher</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Andrej</first>
<last>Varlagin</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Caroline</first>
<last>Vincke</last>
</author>
<author>
<first>Markus</first>
<last>Reichstein</last>
</author>
<abstract>Forests dominate carbon (C) exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere on land. In the long term, the net carbon flux between forests and the atmosphere has been significantly impacted by changes in forest cover area and structure due to ecological disturbances and management activities. Current empirical approaches for estimating net ecosystem productivity (NEP) rarely consider forest age as a predictor, which represents variation in physiological processes that can respond differently to environmental drivers, and regrowth following disturbance. Here, we conduct an observational synthesis to empirically determine to what extent climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, forest age and management influence the spatial and interannual variability of forest NEP across 126 forest eddy-covariance flux sites worldwide. The empirical models explained up to 62% and 71% of spatio-temporal and across-site variability of annual NEP, respectively. An investigation of model structures revealed that forest age was a dominant factor of NEP spatio-temporal variability in both space and time at the global scale as compared to abiotic factors, such as nutrient availability, soil characteristics and climate. These findings emphasize the importance of forest age in quantifying spatio-temporal variation in NEP using empirical approaches.</abstract>
<url hash="d6d1314c">G18-16001</url>
<pages>124018</pages>
<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aaeaeb</doi>
<bibkey>Besnard-2018-Quantifying</bibkey>
<project>prj41</project>
</paper>
</volume>
<volume id="17">
<meta>
<booktitle>Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Volume 43, Issue 11</booktitle>
<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
<address/>