G17.xml

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<collection id="G17">
	<volume id="1">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Science &amp; Technology, Volume 51, Issue 3</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Chemical Society (ACS)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Reduction of Intersex in a Wild Fish Population in Response to Major Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plant Upgrades</title>
			<author>
				<first>Keegan A.</first>
				<last>Hicks</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Meghan</first>
				<last>Fuzzen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Emily Kaitlin</first>
				<last>McCann</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Maricor J.</first>
				<last>Arlos</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Leslie M.</first>
				<last>Bragg</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sonya</first>
				<last>Kleywegt</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Gerald R.</first>
				<last>Tetreault</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mark E.</first>
				<last>McMaster</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mark R.</first>
				<last>Servos</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Intersex in fish downstream of municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs) is a global concern. Consistent high rates of intersex in male rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum) have been reported for several years in the Grand River, in southern Ontario, Canada, in close proximity to two MWWTPs. The larger MWWTP (Kitchener) recently underwent upgrades that included the conversion from a carbonaceous activated sludge to nitrifying activated sludge treatment process. This created a unique opportunity to assess whether upgrades designed to improve effluent quality could also remediate the intersex previously observed in wild fish. Multiple years (2007-2012) of intersex data on male rainbow darter collected before the upgrades at sites associated with the MWWTP outfall were compared with intersex data collected in postupgrade years (2013-2015). These upgrades resulted in a reduction from 70 to 100% intersex incidence (preupgrade) to &lt;10% in postupgrade years. Although the cause of intersex remains unknown, indicators of effluent quality including nutrients, pharmaceuticals, and estrogenicity improved in the effluent after the upgrades. This study demonstrated that investment in MWWTP upgrades improved effluent quality and was associated with an immediate change in biological responses in the receiving environment. This is an important finding considering the tremendous cost of wastewater infrastructure.</abstract>
			<url hash="8a242a46">G17-1001</url>
			<pages>1811-1819</pages>
			<doi>10.1021/acs.est.6b05370</doi>
			<bibkey>Hicks-2017-Reduction</bibkey>
			<project>prj23</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="2">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Boundary-Layer Meteorology</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>The Effect of Coherent Structures in the Atmospheric Surface Layer on Blowing-Snow Transport</title>
			<author>
				<first>Nikolas</first>
				<last>Aksamit</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>While turbulent bursts are considered critical for blowing-snow transport and initiation, the interaction of the airflow with the snow surface is not fully understood. To better characterize the coupling of turbulent structures and blowing-snow transport, observations collected in natural environments at the necessary high-resolution time scales are needed. To address this, high-frequency measurements of turbulence, blowing-snow density and particle velocity were made in the Canadian Rockies. During blowing-snow storms, modified variable-interval time averaging enabled identification of periods of near-surface blowing-snow coupling with shear-stress-producing motions in the lowest 2 m of the atmospheric surface layer. The identification of those turbulent motions responsible for blowing snow yields a better understanding of the event-driven mechanics of initiation and sustained transport. The type of coherent structures generating the Reynolds stress are just as important as the magnitude of the Reynolds stress in initiating and sustaining near-surface blowing snow. Our results suggest that blowing-snow models driven by merely the time-averaged shear stress lack physical realism in the near-surface region. The next phase of the development of blowing-snow models should incorporate parametrizations of coherent turbulent structures.</abstract>
			<url hash="989185a8">G17-2001</url>
			<doi>10.1007/s10546-017-0318-2</doi>
			<bibkey>Aksamit-2017-The</bibkey>
			<project>prj28</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="3">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>FACETS, Volume 2, Issue 2</booktitle>
			<publisher>Canadian Science Publishing</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>DIY meteorology: Use of citizen science to monitor snow dynamics in a data-sparse city</title>
			<author>
				<first>Willemijn M.</first>
				<last>Appels</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Lori</first>
				<last>Bradford</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Kwok Pan</first>
				<last>Chun</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Anna</first>
				<last>Coles</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Graham</first>
				<last>Strickert</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Cities are under pressure to operate their services effectively and project costs of operations across various timeframes. In high-latitude and high-altitude urban centers, snow management is one of the larger unknowns and has both operational and budgetary limitations. Snowfall and snow depth observations within urban environments are important to plan snow clearing and prepare for the effects of spring runoff on cities’ drainage systems. In-house research functions are expensive, but one way to overcome that expense and still produce effective data is through citizen science. In this paper, we examine the potential to use citizen science for snowfall data collection in urban environments. A group of volunteers measured daily snowfall and snow depth at an urban site in Saskatoon (Canada) during two winters. Reliability was assessed with a statistical consistency analysis and a comparison with other data sets collected around Saskatoon. We found that citizen-science-derived data were more reliable and relevant for many urban management stakeholders. Feedback from the participants demonstrated reflexivity about social learning and a renewed sense of community built around generating reliable and useful data. We conclude that citizen science holds great potential to improve data provision for effective and sustainable city planning and greater social learning benefits overall.</abstract>
			<url hash="202de2cd">G17-3001</url>
			<pages>734-753</pages>
			<doi>10.1139/facets-2017-0030</doi>
			<bibkey>Appels-2017-DIY</bibkey>
			<project>prj11</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="4">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 18, Issue 4</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Meteorological Society</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Evaluation of Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) over Southern Canada against Ground Precipitation Observations: A Preliminary Assessment</title>
			<author>
				<first>Zilefac Elvis</first>
				<last>Asong</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Jefferson S.</first>
				<last>Wong</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission offers new opportunities for modeling a range of physical/hydrological processes at higher resolutions, especially for remote river systems where the hydrometeorological monitoring network is sparse and weather radar is not readily available. In this study, the recently released Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM [version 03 (V03) IMERG Final Run] product with high spatiotemporal resolution of 0.1° and 30 min is evaluated against ground-based reference measurements (at the 6-hourly, daily, and monthly time scales) over different terrestrial ecozones of southern Canada within a 23-month period from 12 March 2014 to 31 January 2016. While IMERG and ground-based observations show similar regional variations of mean daily precipitation, IMERG tends to overestimate higher monthly precipitation amounts over the Pacific Maritime ecozone. Results from using continuous as well as categorical skill metrics reveal that IMERG shows more satisfactory agreement at the daily and the 6-hourly time scales for the months of June–September, unlike November–March. In terms of precipitation extremes (defined by the 75th percentile threshold for reference data), apart from a tendency toward overdetection of heavy precipitation events, IMERG captured well the distribution of heavy precipitation amounts and observed wet/dry spell length distributions over most ecozones. However, low skill was found over large portions of the Montane Cordillera ecozone and a few stations in the Prairie ecozone. This early study highlights a potential applicability of V03 IMERG Final Run as a reliable source of precipitation estimates in diverse water resources and hydrometeorological applications for different regions in southern Canada.</abstract>
			<url hash="bdfada74">G17-4001</url>
			<pages>1033-1050</pages>
			<doi>10.1175/jhm-d-16-0187.1</doi>
			<bibkey>Asong-2017-Evaluation</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="5">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Nature Climate Change, Volume 7, Issue 7</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change</title>
			<author>
				<first>Julian C.</first>
				<last>Brimelow</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>William R.</first>
				<last>Burrows</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John</first>
				<last>Hanesiak</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.</abstract>
			<url hash="0546bd11">G17-5001</url>
			<pages>516-522</pages>
			<doi>10.1038/nclimate3321</doi>
			<bibkey>Brimelow-2017-The</bibkey>
			<project>prj5</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="6">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Water Resources and Economics, Volume 17</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>The economic value of river restoration</title>
			<author>
				<first>Roy</first>
				<last>Brouwer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Oleg</first>
				<last>Sheremet</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>This study was part of the European Framework 7 funded project ‘Restoring Rivers for Effective Catchment Management’ (REFORM).</abstract>
			<url hash="17f312ff">G17-6001</url>
			<pages>1-8</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.wre.2017.02.005</doi>
			<bibkey>Brouwer-2017-The</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="7">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, Volume 11, Issue 03</booktitle>
			<publisher>SPIE-Intl Soc Optical Eng</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>RADARSAT-2-based digital elevation models derived from InSAR for high latitudes of northern Canada</title>
			<author>
				<first>Thuan</first>
				<last>Chu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Apurba</first>
				<last>Das</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Karl–Erich</first>
				<last>Lindenschmidt</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs) plays an important role in many terrain-related applications, particular in high northern latitudes where there is uncertainty in DEMs. Using the interferometric synthetic aperture radar techniques, this study examined how different RADARSAT-2 beam modes can be used to generate DEMs with high accuracy. Using a conventional interferometry method, the Spotlight DEM shows the highest accuracy among all studied DEM products, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) ranging from 13.9 to 17.4 m, followed by the F0W3 DEM and U26W2 DEM. The error sources in DEM generation due to uncertainty in perpendicular baseline and atmospheric delay are likely more important than the random phase noise caused by volume scattering and environmental changes during synthetic aperture radar (SAR) acquisitions. The small baselines subset (SBAS) method did not significantly improve DEM quality due to the limitation of the number of SAR images in this study. The integration of both Spotlight conventional DEMs and SBAS DEM considerably improved results yielding high-quality DEMs for the study area, with an RMSE of 9.7 m. Further studies are necessary to quantitatively evaluate the effects of surface motion as well as the orbital and atmospheric errors on the DEM accuracy. The Slave River Delta in the Northwest Territories of Canada was used as a test case.</abstract>
			<url hash="af4f759a">G17-7001</url>
			<pages>1</pages>
			<doi>10.1117/1.jrs.11.035013</doi>
			<bibkey>Chu-2017-RADARSAT-2-based</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="8">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Dendrochronologia, Volume 44</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>A novel stochastic method for reconstructing daily precipitation times-series using tree-ring data from the western Canadian Boreal Forest</title>
			<author>
				<first>Kwok Pan</first>
				<last>Chun</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Steven D.</first>
				<last>Mamet</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Juha M.</first>
				<last>Metsaranta</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Alan G.</first>
				<last>Barr</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Jill F.</first>
				<last>Johnstone</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract Tree ring data provide proxy records of historical hydroclimatic conditions that are widely used for reconstructing precipitation time series. Most previous applications are limited to annual time scales, though information about daily precipitation would enable a range of additional analyses of environmental processes to be investigated and modelled. We used statistical downscaling to simulate stochastic daily precipitation ensembles using dendrochronological data from the western Canadian boreal forest. The simulated precipitation series were generally consistent with observed precipitation data, though reconstructions were poorly constrained during short periods of forest pest outbreaks. The proposed multiple temporal scale precipitation reconstruction can generate annual daily maxima and persistent monthly wet and dry episodes, so that the observed and simulated ensembles have similar precipitation characteristics (i.e. magnitude, peak, and duration)—an improvement on previous modelling studies. We discuss how ecological disturbances may limit reconstructions by inducing non-linear responses in tree growth, and conclude with suggestions of possible applications and further development of downscaling methods for dendrochronological data.</abstract>
			<url hash="f72c65cc">G17-8001</url>
			<pages>9-18</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.dendro.2017.01.003</doi>
			<bibkey>Chun-2017-A</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="9">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrological Processes, Volume 31, Issue 24</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>A modelling framework to simulate field-scale nitrate response and transport during snowmelt: The WINTRA model</title>
			<author>
				<first>Diogo</first>
				<last>Costa</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Jennifer</first>
				<last>Roste</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Helen M.</first>
				<last>Baulch</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>J. M.</first>
				<last>Elliott</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Cherie J.</first>
				<last>Westbrook</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Modeling nutrient transport during snowmelt in cold regions remains a major scientific challenge. A key limitation of existing nutrient models for application in cold regions is the inadequate representation of snowmelt, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This brief period can account for more than 80% of the total annual surface runoff in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Canada and processes such as atmospheric deposition, over-winter redistribution of snow, ion exclusion from snow crystals, frozen soils, and snowcovered area depletion during melt influence the distribution and release of snow and soil nutrients, thus affecting the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff nutrient concentrations.

Research in cold regions suggests that nitrate (NO3) runoff at the field scale can be divided into five phases during snowmelt. In the first phase, water and ions originating from ion-rich snow layers travel and diffuse through the snowpack. This process causes ion concentrations in runoff to gradually increase. The second phase occurs when this snow ion meltwater front has reached the bottom of the snowpack and forms runoff to the edge-of-the-field (EOF). During the third and fourth phases, the main source of NO3 transitions from the snowpack to the soil. Finally, the fifth and last phase occurs when the snow has completely melted, and the thawing soil becomes the main source of NO3 to the stream.

In this research, a process-based model was developed to simulate hourly export based on this five-phase approach. Results from an application in the Red River Basin of southern Manitoba, Canada shows that the model can adequately capture the dynamics and rapid changes of NO3 concentrations during this period at relevant temporal resolutions. This is a significant achievement to advance the current nutrient modeling paradigm in cold climates, which is generally limited to satisfactory results at monthly or annual resolutions. The approach can inform catchment-scale nutrient models to improve simulation of this critical snowmelt period.

Nutrient exports Winter Snow Nitrate Agriculture Nutrient model</abstract>
			<url hash="4f9002a9">G17-9001</url>
			<pages>4250-4268</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/hyp.11346</doi>
			<bibkey>Costa-2017-A</bibkey>
			<project>prj2</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="10">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrology, Volume 553</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Influence of snowpack and melt energy heterogeneity on snow cover depletion and snowmelt runoff simulation in a cold mountain environment</title>
			<author>
				<first>C. M.</first>
				<last>DeBeer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract The spatial heterogeneity of mountain snow cover and ablation is important in controlling patterns of snow cover depletion (SCD), meltwater production, and runoff, yet is not well-represented in most large-scale hydrological models and land surface schemes. Analyses were conducted in this study to examine the influence of various representations of snow cover and melt energy heterogeneity on both simulated SCD and stream discharge from a small alpine basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Simulations were performed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM), where point-scale snowmelt computations were made using a snowpack energy balance formulation and applied to spatial frequency distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE) on individual slope-, aspect-, and landcover-based hydrological response units (HRUs) in the basin. Hydrological routines were added to represent the vertical and lateral transfers of water through the basin and channel system. From previous studies it is understood that the heterogeneity of late winter SWE is a primary control on patterns of SCD. The analyses here showed that spatial variation in applied melt energy, mainly due to differences in net radiation, has an important influence on SCD at multiple scales and basin discharge, and cannot be neglected without serious error in the prediction of these variables. A single basin SWE distribution using the basin-wide mean SWE ( SWE ‾ ) and coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation/mean) was found to represent the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of SWE sufficiently well. Simulations that accounted for differences in ( SWE ‾ ) among HRUs but neglected the sub-HRU heterogeneity of SWE were found to yield similar discharge results as simulations that included this heterogeneity, while SCD was poorly represented, even at the basin level. Finally, applying point-scale snowmelt computations based on a single SWE depth for each HRU (thereby neglecting spatial differences in internal snowpack energetics over the distributions) was found to yield similar SCD and discharge results as simulations that resolved internal energy differences. Spatial/internal snowpack melt energy effects are more pronounced at times earlier in spring before the main period of snowmelt and SCD, as shown in previously published work. The paper discusses the importance of these findings as they apply to the warranted complexity of snowmelt process simulation in cold mountain environments, and shows how the end-of-winter SWE distribution represents an effective means of resolving snow cover heterogeneity at multiple scales for modelling, even in steep and complex terrain.</abstract>
			<url hash="05f21e79">G17-10001</url>
			<pages>199-213</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.051</doi>
			<bibkey>DeBeer-2017-Influence</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="11">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Water, Volume 9, Issue 10</booktitle>
			<publisher>MDPI AG</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios</title>
			<author>
				<first>Babak</first>
				<last>Farjad</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Anil</first>
				<last>Gupta</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Monireh</first>
				<last>Faramarzi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Danielle J.</first>
				<last>Marceau</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs) scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.</abstract>
			<url hash="bd4e791c">G17-11001</url>
			<pages>767</pages>
			<doi>10.3390/w9100767</doi>
			<bibkey>Farjad-2017-An</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="12">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 21, Issue 12</booktitle>
			<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes</title>
			<author>
				<first>José-Luis</first>
				<last>Guerrero</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Patricia</first>
				<last>Pernica</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Murray</first>
				<last>Mackay</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Chris</first>
				<last>Spence</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.</abstract>
			<url hash="affbd6f2">G17-12001</url>
			<pages>6345-6362</pages>
			<doi>10.5194/hess-21-6345-2017</doi>
			<bibkey>Guerrero-2017-Parameter</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="13">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Modelling &amp; Software, Volume 95</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Insights into sensitivity analysis of Earth and environmental systems models: On the impact of parameter perturbation scale</title>
			<author>
				<first>Amin</first>
				<last>Haghnegahdar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract This paper investigates the commonly overlooked “sensitivity” of sensitivity analysis (SA) to what we refer to as parameter “perturbation scale”, which can be defined as a prescribed size of the sensitivity-related neighbourhood around any point in the parameter space (analogous to step size Δ x for numerical estimation of derivatives). We discuss that perturbation scale is inherent to any (local and global) SA approach, and explain how derivative-based SA approaches (e.g., method of Morris) focus on small-scale perturbations, while variance-based approaches (e.g., method of Sobol) focus on large-scale perturbations. We employ a novel variogram-based approach, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS), which bridges derivative- and variance-based approaches. Our analyses with different real-world environmental models demonstrate significant implications of subjectivity in the perturbation-scale choice and the need for strategies to address these implications. It is further shown how VARS can uniquely characterize the perturbation-scale dependency and generate sensitivity measures that encompass all sensitivity-related information across the full spectrum of perturbation scales.</abstract>
			<url hash="1747b197">G17-13001</url>
			<pages>115-131</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.031</doi>
			<bibkey>Haghnegahdar-2017-Insights</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="14">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrological Processes, Volume 31, Issue 25</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty</title>
			<author>
				<first>Amin</first>
				<last>Haghnegahdar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Fuad</first>
				<last>Yassin</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land-use change on water resources. However, building a high-fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behavior and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters, forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface-hydrology model, Modelisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS), for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter-intuitive, and thus, help the modeler to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and CLASS users, to enhance their modelling applications.</abstract>
			<url hash="8a90892e">G17-14001</url>
			<pages>4462-4476</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/hyp.11358</doi>
			<bibkey>Haghnegahdar-2017-Multicriteria</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="15">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 44, Issue 19</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Local‐Scale Advection of Sensible and Latent Heat During Snowmelt</title>
			<author>
				<first>Phillip</first>
				<last>Harder</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Warren</first>
				<last>Helgason</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The breakup of snow cover into patches during snowmelt leads to a dynamic, heterogeneous land surface composed of melting snow, and wet and dry soil and plant surfaces. Energy exchange with the atmosphere is therefore complicated by horizontal gradients in surface temperature and humidity as snow surface temperature and humidity are regulated by the phase change of melting snow unlike snow-free areas. Airflow across these surface transitions results in local-scale advection of energy that has been documented as sensible heat during snowmelt, while latent heat advection has received scant attention. Herein, results are presented from an experiment measuring near-surface profiles of air temperature and humidity across snow-free to snow-covered transitions that demonstrates that latent heat advection can be the same order of magnitude as sensible heat advection and is therefore an important source of snowmelt energy. Latent heat advection is conditional on an upwind source of water vapor from a wetted snow-free surface.</abstract>
			<url hash="322cee4b">G17-15001</url>
			<pages>9769-9777</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/2017gl074394</doi>
			<bibkey>Harder-2017-Local‐Scale</bibkey>
			<project>prj2</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="16">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrological Processes, Volume 31, Issue 26</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold-water refuge in an alpine stream</title>
			<author>
				<first>Jordan S.</first>
				<last>Harrington</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Masaki</first>
				<last>Hayashi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Barret L.</first>
				<last>Kurylyk</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold-water fish habitat which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3°C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5°C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold-water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically-resilient cold-water refuges in alpine streams.</abstract>
			<url hash="209941a5">G17-16001</url>
			<pages>4719-4733</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/hyp.11391</doi>
			<bibkey>Harrington-2017-Influence</bibkey>
			<project>prj28</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="17">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Issue 11</booktitle>
			<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Warmer spring conditions increase annual methane emissions from a boreal peat landscape with sporadic permafrost</title>
			<author>
				<first>Manuel</first>
				<last>Helbig</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>William L.</first>
				<last>Quinton</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Oliver</first>
				<last>Sonnentag</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>About a fifth of the global wetland methane emissions originate from boreal peatlands, which represent an important land cover type in boreal landscapes in the sporadic permafrost zone. There, rising air temperatures could lead to warmer spring and longer growing seasons, changing landscape methane emissions. To quantify the effect of warmer spring conditions on methane emissions of a boreal peat landscape in the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, we analyzed four years (2013 – 2016) of methane fluxes measured with the eddy covariance technique and long-term (1951-2016) meteorological observations from a nearby climate station. In May, after snowmelt was complete, mean air temperatures were more than 2 °C warmer in 2013, 2015, and 2016 than in 2014. Mean growing season (May-August) air temperatures, in contrast, differed by less than 1 °C over the four years. Warmer May air temperatures caused earlier wetland soil warming, with temperatures rising from ~0 °C to g12 °C 25 to 40 days earlier and leading to ~6 °C warmer mean soil temperatures between May and June. However, from July to August, soil temperatures were similar among years. Mean May to August and annual methane emissions (6.4 g CH4 m-2 and 9.4 g CH4 m-2, respectively) of years with warmer spring (i.e., May) temperatures exceeded emissions during the cooler year by 20-30 % (4.5 g CH4 m-2 and 7.2 g CH4 m-2, respectively). Among years with warmer springs, growing season methane emissions varied little (0.5 g CH4 m-2). The observed interannual differences are most likely caused by a strong soil temperature control on methane fluxes and large soil temperature differences during the spring. Thus, in a warming climate, methane emissions from waterlogged boreal peat landscapes at the southern limit of permafrost are likely to increase in response to more frequent occurrences of warm springs.</abstract>
			<url hash="982526c0">G17-17001</url>
			<pages>115009</pages>
			<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aa8c85</doi>
			<bibkey>Helbig-2017-Warmer</bibkey>
			<project>prj29</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="18">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Climate Change Economics, Volume 08, Issue 01</booktitle>
			<publisher>World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>THE ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE NILE BASIN: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH</title>
			<author>
				<first>Tewodros Negash</first>
				<last>Kahsay</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Onno</first>
				<last>Kuik</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Roy</first>
				<last>Brouwer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Pieter van der</first>
				<last>Zaag</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC’s A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.</abstract>
			<url hash="c0463696">G17-18001</url>
			<pages>1750004</pages>
			<doi>10.1142/s201000781750004x</doi>
			<bibkey>KAHSAY-2017-THE</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="19">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Water Resources Management, Volume 32, Issue 3</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>The Transboundary Impacts of Trade Liberalization and Climate Change on the Nile Basin Economies and Water Resource Availability</title>
			<author>
				<first>Tewodros Negash</first>
				<last>Kahsay</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Onno</first>
				<last>Kuik</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Roy</first>
				<last>Brouwer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Pieter van der</first>
				<last>Zaag</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used for the first time to evaluate the economic and water resource availability effects of trade liberalization (removal of import tariffs) and facilitation (reducing non-tariff barriers) under climate change in the Nile Basin. The analysis uses the GTAP 9 Database and the GTAP-W model that distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as a factor of production directly substitutable in the production process of irrigated agriculture. A full trade liberalization and improved trade facilitation scenario is considered with and without climate change. The study reveals that trade liberalization and facilitation generates substantial economic benefits and enhances economic growth and welfare in the Nile basin. The effect of instituting a free trade policy on water savings is found to be limited, while climate change improves water supply and hence irrigation water use, enhancing economic growth and welfare in the basin.</abstract>
			<url hash="78fa51f3">G17-19001</url>
			<pages>935-947</pages>
			<doi>10.1007/s11269-017-1847-7</doi>
			<bibkey>Kahsay-2017-The</bibkey>
			<project>prj22</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="20">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Ecohydrology, Volume 11, Issue 2</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Beaver-mediated water table dynamics in a Rocky Mountain fen</title>
			<author>
				<first>Daniel J.</first>
				<last>Karran</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Cherie J.</first>
				<last>Westbrook</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Angela</first>
				<last>Bedard‐Haughn</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Beaver dams are known to raise water tables in mineral soil environments but very little is known about their impact in wetlands, such as peatlands. Peatlands tend to have shallow water tables, and the position and tendency of the water table to fluctuate (i.e. stability) is a factor controlling the system's ability to store carbon and water. Many peatland environments, especially fens, offer ideal habitat for beaver and the potential for beaver dams to influence this link by manipulating water table dynamics requires investigation. Our objective was to determine the influence of beaver dams on water table dynamics of a Rocky Mountain fen. We monitored water tables in the peatland for four years while beaver dams were intact and two years after they were breached by an extreme flood event. We found that, because of the unique way in which dams were built, they connected the peatland to the stream and raised and stabilized already high water tables within a 150-m radius. Beaver-mediated changes to peatland water table regimes have the potential to enhance carbon sequestration and the peatland's ability to respond to external pressures such as climate change. Furthermore, beaver dams increased surface and groundwater storage, which has implications for regional water balances, especially in times of drought.</abstract>
			<url hash="425264a9">G17-20001</url>
			<pages>e1923</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/eco.1923</doi>
			<bibkey>Karran-2017-Beaver-mediated</bibkey>
			<project>prj28</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="21">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Atmospheric Research, Volume 191</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Characteristics, atmospheric drivers and occurrence patterns of freezing precipitation and ice pellets over the Prairie Provinces and Arctic Territories of Canada: 1964–2005</title>
			<author>
				<first>Bohdan</first>
				<last>Kochtubajda</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Curtis</first>
				<last>Mooney</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Ronald E.</first>
				<last>Stewart</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract Freezing precipitation and ice pellet events on the Canadian Prairies and Arctic territories of Canada often lead to major disruptions to air and ground transportation, damage power grids and prevent arctic caribou and other animals from accessing the plants and lichen they depend on for survival. In a warming climate, these hazards and associated impacts will continue to happen, although their spatial and temporal characteristics may vary. In order to address these issues, the occurrence of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and ice pellets from 1964 to 2005 is examined using hourly weather observations at 27 manned 24 h weather stations across the different climatic regions of the Prairie Provinces and Arctic Territories of Canada. Because of the enormous size of the area and its diverse climatic regions, many temporal and spatial differences in freezing precipitation and ice pellet characteristics occur. The 12 most widespread freezing rain events over the study area are associated with only two atmospheric patterns with one linked to strong warm advection between low and high pressure centres and the other pattern associated with chinooks occurring east of the Rocky Mountains. Given the annual patterns of freezing rain occurrence found in this study, it is proposed that a maximum of five regimes exist and three occur within the Prairies and Arctic.</abstract>
			<url hash="faee03cc">G17-21001</url>
			<pages>115-127</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.03.005</doi>
			<bibkey>Kochtubajda-2017-Characteristics,</bibkey>
			<project>prj5</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="22">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrology, Volume 550</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model</title>
			<author>
				<first>Sebastian A.</first>
				<last>Krogh</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Philip</first>
				<last>Marsh</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.</abstract>
			<url hash="e85bac22">G17-22001</url>
			<pages>685-703</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.042</doi>
			<bibkey>Krogh-2017-Diagnosis</bibkey>
			<project>prj9</project>
		</paper>
		<paper id="2">
			<title>Assessment of nutrient loadings of a large multipurpose prairie reservoir</title>
			<author>
				<first>L. A.</first>
				<last>Morales-Marín</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>K.-E.</first>
				<last>Lindenschmidt</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract The relatively low water flow velocities in reservoirs cause them to have high capacities for retaining sediments and pollutants, which can lead to a reduction in downstream nutrient loading. Hence, nutrients can progressively accumulate in reservoirs, resulting in the deterioration of aquatic ecosystems and water quality. Lake Diefenbaker (LD) is a large multipurpose reservoir, located on the South Saskatchewan River (SSR), that serves as a major source of freshwater in Saskatchewan, Canada. Over the past several years, changes in land use (e.g. expansion of urban areas and industrial developments) in the reservoir’s catchment have heightened concerns about future water quality in the catchment and in the reservoir. Intensification of agricultural activities has led to an increase in augmented the application of manure and fertilizer for crops and pasture. Although previous research has attempted to quantify nutrient retention in LD, there is a knowledge gap related to the identification of major nutrient sources and quantification of nutrient export from the catchment at different spatial scales. Using the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) model, this gap has been addressed by assessing water quality regionally, and identifying spatial patterns of factors and processes that affect water quality in the LD catchment. Model results indicate that LD retains about 70% of the inflowing total nitrogen (TN) and 90% of the inflowing total phosphorus (TP) loads, of which fertilizer and manure applied to agricultural fields contribute the greatest proportion. The SPARROW model will be useful as a tool to guide the optimal implementation of nutrient management plans to reduce nutrient inputs to LD.</abstract>
			<url hash="7152fd98">G17-22002</url>
			<pages>166-185</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.043</doi>
			<bibkey>Morales-Marín-2017-Assessment</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="23">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Earth's Future, Volume 5, Issue 12</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Recent Very Hot Summers in Northern Hemispheric Land Areas Measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Will Be the Norm Within 20 Years</title>
			<author>
				<first>Chao</first>
				<last>Li</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Xuebin</first>
				<last>Zhang</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francis W.</first>
				<last>Zwiers</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Yuanyuan</first>
				<last>Fang</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>A. M.</first>
				<last>Michalak</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Wet bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.</abstract>
			<url hash="50e7cb47">G17-23001</url>
			<pages>1203-1216</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/2017ef000639</doi>
			<bibkey>Li-2017-Recent</bibkey>
			<project>prj5</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="24">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 18, Issue 8</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Meteorological Society</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>A Numerical Study of the June 2013 Flood-Producing Extreme Rainstorm over Southern Alberta</title>
			<author>
				<first>Yanping</first>
				<last>Li</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Kit K.</first>
				<last>Szeto</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Ronald E.</first>
				<last>Stewart</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Julie M.</first>
				<last>Thériault</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Liang</first>
				<last>Chen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Bohdan</first>
				<last>Kochtubajda</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Anthony</first>
				<last>Liu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sudesh</first>
				<last>Boodoo</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Ron</first>
				<last>Goodson</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Curtis</first>
				<last>Mooney</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sopan</first>
				<last>Kurkute</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract A devastating, flood-producing rainstorm occurred over southern Alberta, Canada, from 19 to 22 June 2013. The long-lived, heavy rainfall event was a result of complex interplays between topographic, synoptic, and convective processes that rendered an accurate simulation of this event a challenging task. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate this event and was validated against several observation datasets. Both the timing and location of the model precipitation agree closely with the observations, indicating that the WRF Model is capable of reproducing this type of severe event. Sensitivity tests with different microphysics schemes were conducted and evaluated using equitable threat and bias frequency scores. The WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6) generally performed better when compared with other schemes. The application of a conventional convective/stratiform separation algorithm shows that convective activity was dominant during the early stages, then evolved into predominantly stratiform precipitation later in the event. The HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis and regional water budget assessments using WRF simulation output suggest that the moisture for the precipitation was mainly from recycling antecedent soil moisture through evaporation and evapotranspiration over the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Great Plains. This analysis also shows that a small fraction of the moisture can be traced back to the northeastern Pacific, and direct uptake from the Gulf of Mexico was not a significant source in this event.</abstract>
			<url hash="cd30f3fe">G17-24001</url>
			<pages>2057-2078</pages>
			<doi>10.1175/jhm-d-15-0176.1</doi>
			<bibkey>Li-2017-A</bibkey>
			<project>prj9</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="25">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Meteorological Research, Volume 31, Issue 1</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Circulation characteristics of persistent cold spells in central–eastern North America</title>
			<author>
				<first>Zhenhua</first>
				<last>Li</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>A. H.</first>
				<last>Manson</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Yanping</first>
				<last>Li</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>C. E.</first>
				<last>Meek</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The circulation patterns of persistent cold weather spells with durations longer than 10 days in central–eastern North America (United States and Canada; 32°–52°N, 95°–65°W) are investigated by using NCEP reanalysis data from 1948 to 2014. The criteria for the persistent cold spells are: (1) three-day averaged temperature anomalies for the regional average over the central–eastern United States and Canada must be below the 10th percentile, and (2) such extreme cold spells must last at least 10 days. The circulation patterns associated with these cold spells are examined to find the common signals of these events. The circulation anomaly patterns of these cold spells are categorized based on the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and other climate indices. The atmospheric circulation patterns that favor the cold spells are identified through composites of geopotential height maps for the cold spells. Negative AO phases favor persistent cold spells. Phases of sea surface temperature (SST) modes that are associated with warm SSTs in the eastern extratropical Pacific also favor persistent cold events in the study region. Stratospheric polar vortex breakdown alone is not a good predictor for the regional extreme cold spells in central–eastern North America. The meridional dispersions of quasi-stationary Rossby waves in the Pacific–North America sector in terms of cut-off zonal wavenumber modulated by background flow are analyzed to provide insight into the difference in evolution of the cold spells under different mean AO phases. The waveguide for AO &gt; 1 is in a narrow latitudinal band centered on 40°N, whereas the waveguide for AO &lt;–1 is in a broader latitudinal band from 40° to 65°N. The circulation patterns and lower boundary conditions favorable for persistent cold spells identified by this study can be a stepping-stone for improving winter subseasonal forecasting in North America.</abstract>
			<url hash="758c949b">G17-25001</url>
			<pages>250-260</pages>
			<doi>10.1007/s13351-017-6146-y</doi>
			<bibkey>Li-2017-Circulation</bibkey>
			<project>prj9</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="26">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Volume 37, Issue 2</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Assessing recovery of in vitro steroid production in male rainbow darter (&lt;i&gt;Etheostoma caeruleum&lt;/i&gt;
) in response to municipal wastewater treatment plant infrastructure changes</title>
			<author>
				<first>Patricija</first>
				<last>Marjan</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Glen J. Van Der</first>
				<last>Kraak</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Deborah L.</first>
				<last>MacLatchy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Meghan</first>
				<last>Fuzzen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Leslie M.</first>
				<last>Bragg</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mark E.</first>
				<last>McMaster</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Gerald R.</first>
				<last>Tetreault</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mark R.</first>
				<last>Servos</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The present study examined in vitro 11-ketotestosterone and testosterone production by the testes of rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum) collected from selected reference sites and downstream of 2 municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs; Waterloo and Kitchener) on the central Grand River (Ontario, Canada), over a 6-yr period (2011-2016). The main objective was to investigate if infrastructure upgrades at the Kitchener MWWTP in 2012 resulted in a recovery of this response in the post-upgrade period (2013-2016). Two supporting studies showed that the fall season is appropriate for measuring in vitro sex steroid production because it provides stable detection of steroid patterns, and that the sample handling practiced in the present study did not introduce a bias. Infrastructure upgrades of the Kitchener MWWTP resulted in significant reductions in ammonia and estrogenicity. After the upgrades, 11-ketotestosterone production by MWWTP-exposed fish increased in 2013 and it continued to recover throughout the study period of 2014 through 2016, returning to levels measured in reference fish. Testosterone production was less sensitive and it lacked consistency. The Waterloo MWWTP underwent some minor upgrades but the level of ammonia and estrogenicity remained variable over time. The production of 11-ketotestosterone and testosterone in rainbow darter below the Waterloo MWWTP was variable and without a clear recovery pattern over the course of the present study. The results of the present study demonstrated that measuring production of sex steroids (especially 11-ketotestosterone) over multiple years can be relevant for assessing responses in fish to environmental changes such as those resulting from major infrastructure upgrades. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:501-514. © 2017 SETAC.</abstract>
			<url hash="67393b75">G17-26001</url>
			<pages>501-514</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/etc.3986</doi>
			<bibkey>Marjan-2017-Assessing</bibkey>
			<project>prj23</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="27">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrology, Volume 554</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Peatland water repellency: Importance of soil water content, moss species, and burn severity</title>
			<author>
				<first>Paul A.</first>
				<last>Moore</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Max</first>
				<last>Lukenbach</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Nicholas</first>
				<last>Kettridge</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Richard M.</first>
				<last>Petrone</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>K. J.</first>
				<last>Devito</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>J. M.</first>
				<last>Waddington</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract Wildfire is the largest disturbance affecting peatlands, with northern peat reserves expected to become more vulnerable to wildfire as climate change enhances the length and severity of the fire season. Recent research suggests that high water table positions after wildfire are critical to limit atmospheric carbon losses and enable the re-establishment of keystone peatland mosses (i.e. Sphagnum). Post-fire recovery of the moss surface in Sphagnum-feathermoss peatlands, however, has been shown to be limited where moss type and burn severity interact to result in a water repellent surface. While in situ measurements of moss water repellency in peatlands have been shown to be greater for feathermoss in both a burned and unburned state in comparison to Sphagnum moss, it is difficult to separate the effect of water content from species. Consequently, we carried out a laboratory based drying experiment where we compared the water repellency of two dominant peatland moss species, Sphagnum and feathermoss, for several burn severity classes including unburned samples. The results suggest that water repellency in moss is primarily controlled by water content, where a sharp threshold exists at gravimetric water contents (GWC) lower than ∼1.4 g g−1. While GWC is shown to be a strong predictor of water repellency, the effect is enhanced by burning. Based on soil water retention curves, we suggest that it is highly unlikely that Sphagnum will exhibit strong hydrophobic conditions under field conditions.</abstract>
			<url hash="df855c10">G17-27001</url>
			<pages>656-665</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.036</doi>
			<bibkey>Moore-2017-Peatland</bibkey>
			<project>prj4</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="28">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Water Resources Management, Volume 32, Issue 2</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Estimating Sediment Loadings in the South Saskatchewan River Catchment</title>
			<author>
				<first>L. A.</first>
				<last>Morales-Marín</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Karl–Erich</first>
				<last>Lindenschmidt</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>In river catchments, sediment fluxes facilitate the transport of nutrients and pollutants and reduce water quality, potentially impacting water body health and altering ecosystem functioning. Sediment transport processes also modify the morphology of catchments, and sediment deposition can reduce flow capacity in rivers and water storage capacity in reservoirs and lakes. In this paper, estimates of suspended sediment yields and concentrations in the South Saskatchewan River catchment located in western Canada are presented. The results stem from a SPARROW model, which indicates that the dominant sources of sediment are represented by agricultural fields and urbanized lands. Analyses of sediment retention in the major catchment reservoirs indicate that, as expected, reservoir storage capacity is negatively correlated with reservoir storage reduction and positively correlated with retention rate. Additionally, reservoir lifespans range from less than 100 years to over 9000 years. The results presented here will be useful to complement local environmental guidelines to allow better management of sediment erosion and deposition in the South Saskatchewan River catchment.</abstract>
			<url hash="87e64c46">G17-28001</url>
			<pages>769-783</pages>
			<doi>10.1007/s11269-017-1838-8</doi>
			<bibkey>Morales-Marín-2017-Estimating</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="29">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Biogeosciences, Volume 14, Issue 14</booktitle>
			<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Sediment phosphorus speciation and mobility under dynamic redox conditions</title>
			<author>
				<first>Chris T.</first>
				<last>Parsons</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Fereidoun</first>
				<last>Rezanezhad</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>David</first>
				<last>O’Connell</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Philippe Van</first>
				<last>Cappellen</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has caused phosphorus (P) accumulation in many freshwater sediments, raising concerns that internal loading from legacy P may delay the recovery of aquatic ecosystems suffering from eutrophication. Benthic recycling of P strongly depends on the redox regime within surficial sediment. In many shallow environments, redox conditions tend to be highly dynamic as a result of, among others, bioturbation by macrofauna, root activity, sediment resuspension and seasonal variations in bottom-water oxygen (O2) concentrations. To gain insight into the mobility and biogeochemistry of P under fluctuating redox conditions, a suspension of sediment from a hypereutrophic freshwater marsh was exposed to alternating 7-day periods of purging with air and nitrogen gas (N2), for a total duration of 74 days, in a bioreactor system. We present comprehensive data time series of bulk aqueous- and solid-phase chemistry, solid-phase phosphorus speciation and hydrolytic enzyme activities demonstrating the mass balanced redistribution of P in sediment during redox cycling. Aqueous phosphate concentrations remained low ( ∼ 2.5 µM) under oxic conditions due to sorption to iron(III) oxyhydroxides. During anoxic periods, once nitrate was depleted, the reductive dissolution of iron(III) oxyhydroxides released P. However, only 4.5 % of the released P accumulated in solution while the rest was redistributed between the MgCl2 and NaHCO3 extractable fractions of the solid phase. Thus, under the short redox fluctuations imposed in the experiments, P remobilization to the aqueous phase remained relatively limited. Orthophosphate predominated at all times during the experiment in both the solid and aqueous phase. Combined P monoesters and diesters accounted for between 9 and 16 % of sediment particulate P. Phosphatase activities up to 2.4 mmol h−1 kg−1 indicated the potential for rapid mineralization of organic P (Po), in particular during periods of aeration when the activity of phosphomonoesterases was 37 % higher than under N2 sparging. The results emphasize that the magnitude and timing of internal P loading during periods of anoxia are dependent on both P redistribution within sediments and bottom-water nitrate concentrations.</abstract>
			<url hash="3f5a2b23">G17-29001</url>
			<pages>3585-3602</pages>
			<doi>10.5194/bg-14-3585-2017</doi>
			<bibkey>Parsons-2017-Sediment</bibkey>
			<project>prj22</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="30">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Volume 24, Issue 24</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Sediment plume model—a comparison between use of measured turbidity data and satellite images for model calibration</title>
			<author>
				<first>Amir</first>
				<last>Sadeghian</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Jeff J.</first>
				<last>Hudson</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Karl–Erich</first>
				<last>Lindenschmidt</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>In this study, we built a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada. It was calibrated by using measured turbidity data from stations along the reservoir and satellite images based on a flood event in 2013. In June 2013, there was heavy rainfall for two consecutive days on the frozen and snow-covered ground in the higher elevations of western Alberta, Canada. The runoff from the rainfall and the melted snow caused one of the largest recorded inflows to the headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River and Lake Diefenbaker downstream. An estimated discharge peak of over 5200 m3/s arrived at the reservoir inlet with a thick sediment front within a few days. The sediment plume moved quickly through the entire reservoir and remained visible from satellite images for over 2 weeks along most of the reservoir, leading to concerns regarding water quality. The aims of this study are to compare, quantitatively and qualitatively, the efficacy of using turbidity data and satellite images for sediment transport model calibration and to determine how accurately a sediment transport model can simulate sediment transport based on each of them. Both turbidity data and satellite images were very useful for calibrating the sediment transport model quantitatively and qualitatively. Model predictions and turbidity measurements show that the flood water and suspended sediments entered upstream fairly well mixed and moved downstream as overflow with a sharp gradient at the plume front. The model results suggest that the settling and resuspension rates of sediment are directly proportional to flow characteristics and that the use of constant coefficients leads to model underestimation or overestimation unless more data on sediment formation become available. Hence, this study reiterates the significance of the availability of data on sediment distribution and characteristics for building a robust and reliable sediment transport model.</abstract>
			<url hash="7f324d19">G17-30001</url>
			<pages>19583-19598</pages>
			<doi>10.1007/s11356-017-9616-y</doi>
			<bibkey>Sadeghian-2017-Sediment</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="31">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Water Resources Research, Volume 53, Issue 4</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>A diagnostic approach to constraining flow partitioning in hydrologic models using a multiobjective optimization framework</title>
			<author>
				<first>Mahyar</first>
				<last>Shafii</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Nandita B.</first>
				<last>Basu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>James R.</first>
				<last>Craig</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sherry L.</first>
				<last>Schiff</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Philippe Van</first>
				<last>Cappellen</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>© American Geophysical Union: Shafii, M., Basu, N., Craig, J. R., Schiff, S. L., &amp; Van Cappellen, P. (2017). A diagnostic approach to constraining flow partitioning in hydrologic models using a multiobjective optimization framework. Water Resources Research, 53(4), 3279–3301. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019736</abstract>
			<url hash="c78e2a7c">G17-31001</url>
			<pages>3279-3301</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/2016wr019736</doi>
			<bibkey>Shafii-2017-A</bibkey>
			<project>prj22</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="32">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Modelling &amp; Software, Volume 93</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Progressive Latin Hypercube Sampling: An efficient approach for robust sampling-based analysis of environmental models</title>
			<author>
				<first>Razi</first>
				<last>Sheikholeslami</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Efficient sampling strategies that scale with the size of the problem, computational budget, and users needs are essential for various sampling-based analyses, such as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. In this study, we propose a new strategy, called Progressive Latin Hypercube Sampling (PLHS), which sequentially generates sample points while progressively preserving the distributional properties of interest (Latin hypercube properties, space-filling, etc.), as the sample size grows. Unlike Latin hypercube sampling, PLHS generates a series of smaller sub-sets (slices) such that (1) the first slice is Latin hypercube, (2) the progressive union of slices remains Latin hypercube and achieves maximum stratification in any one-dimensional projection, and as such (3) the entire sample set is Latin hypercube. The performance of PLHS is compared with benchmark sampling strategies across multiple case studies for Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Our results indicate that PLHS leads to improved efficiency, convergence, and robustness of sampling-based analyses. A new sequential sampling strategy called PLHS is proposed for sampling-based analysis of simulation models.PLHS is evaluated across multiple case studies for Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.PLHS provides better performance compared with the other sampling strategies in terms of convergence rate and robustness.PLHS can be used to monitor the performance of the associated sampling-based analysis and to avoid over- or under-sampling.</abstract>
			<url hash="d53b8592">G17-32001</url>
			<pages>109-126</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.010</doi>
			<bibkey>Sheikholeslami-2017-Progressive</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="33">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Volume 22, Issue 11</booktitle>
			<publisher>American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Improved Understanding of River Ice Processes Using Global Sensitivity Analysis Approaches</title>
			<author>
				<first>Razi</first>
				<last>Sheikholeslami</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Fuad</first>
				<last>Yassin</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Karl–Erich</first>
				<last>Lindenschmidt</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>AbstractThe high impact of river ice phenomena on the hydrology of cold regions has led to the extensive use of numerical models in simulating and predicting river ice processes. Consequently, ther...</abstract>
			<url hash="6d87e2f7">G17-33001</url>
			<doi>10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001574</doi>
			<bibkey>Sheikholeslami-2017-Improved</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="34">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Weather and Climate Extremes, Volume 18</booktitle>
			<publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities</title>
			<author>
				<first>Jana</first>
				<last>Sillmann</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Thordis L.</first>
				<last>Thorarinsdottir</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Noel</first>
				<last>Keenlyside</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Nathalie</first>
				<last>Schaller</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Lisa V.</first>
				<last>Alexander</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Gabriele C.</first>
				<last>Hegerl</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sonia I.</first>
				<last>Seneviratne</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Robert</first>
				<last>Vautard</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Xuebin</first>
				<last>Zhang</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francis W.</first>
				<last>Zwiers</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days) and long-duration (weeks to months) extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction.</abstract>
			<url hash="f050da4e">G17-34001</url>
			<pages>65-74</pages>
			<doi>10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003</doi>
			<bibkey>Sillmann-2017-Understanding,</bibkey>
			<project>prj5</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="35">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Climatic Change, Volume 144, Issue 2</booktitle>
			<publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?</title>
			<author>
				<first>Peter</first>
				<last>Stott</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>David J.</first>
				<last>Karoly</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francis W.</first>
				<last>Zwiers</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The science of event attribution meets a mounting demand for reliable and timely information about the links between climate change and individual extreme events. Studies have estimated the contribution of human-induced climate change to the magnitude of an event as well as its likelihood, and many types of event have been investigated including heatwaves, floods, and droughts. Despite this progress, such approaches have been criticised for being unreliable and for being overly conservative. We argue that such criticisms are misplaced. Rather, a false dichotomy has arisen between “conventional” approaches and new alternative framings. We have three points to make about the choice of statistical paradigm for event attribution studies. First, different approaches to event attribution may choose to occupy different places on the conditioning spectrum. Providing this choice of conditioning is communicated clearly, the value of such choices depends ultimately on their utility to the user concerned. Second, event attribution is an estimation problem for which either frequentist or Bayesian paradigms can be used. Third, for hypothesis testing, the choice of null hypothesis is context specific. Thus, the null hypothesis of human influence is not inherently a preferable alternative to the usual null hypothesis of no human influence.</abstract>
			<url hash="48ecbd2b">G17-35001</url>
			<pages>143-150</pages>
			<doi>10.1007/s10584-017-2049-2</doi>
			<bibkey>Stott-2017-Is</bibkey>
			<project>prj5</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="36">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Issue 8</booktitle>
			<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Time lags in watershed-scale nutrient transport: an exploration of dominant controls</title>
			<author>
				<first>K. J. Van</first>
				<last>Meter</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>N. B.</first>
				<last>Basu</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Unprecedented decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition together with increases in agricultural N-use efficiency have led to decreases in net anthropogenic N inputs in many eastern US and Canadian watersheds as well as in Europe. Despite such decreases, N concentrations in streams and rivers continue to increase, and problems of coastal eutrophication remain acute. Such a mismatch between N inputs and outputs can arise due to legacy N accumulation and subsequent lag times between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. In the present study, we quantified such lag times by pairing long-term N input trajectories with stream nitrate concentration data for 16 nested subwatersheds in a 6800 km2, Southern Ontario watershed. Our results show significant nonlinearity between N inputs and outputs, with a strong hysteresis effect indicative of decadal-scale lag times. The mean annual lag time was found to be 24.5 years, with lags varying seasonally, likely due to differences in N-delivery pathways. Lag times were found to be negatively correlated with both tile drainage and watershed slope, with tile drainage being a dominant control in fall and watershed slope being significant during the spring snowmelt period. Quantification of such lags will be crucial to policy-makers as they struggle to set appropriate goals for water quality improvement in human-impacted watersheds.</abstract>
			<url hash="5a5912c5">G17-36001</url>
			<pages>084017</pages>
			<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aa7bf4</doi>
			<bibkey>Van Meter-2017-Time</bibkey>
			<project>prj22</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="37">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 21, Issue 8</booktitle>
			<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions</title>
			<author>
				<first>Yoshihide</first>
				<last>Wada</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Marc F. P.</first>
				<last>Bierkens</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Ad de</first>
				<last>Roo</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Paul A.</first>
				<last>Dirmeyer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>J. S.</first>
				<last>Famiglietti</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Naota</first>
				<last>Hanasaki</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Megan</first>
				<last>Konar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Junguo</first>
				<last>Liu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Hannes Müller</first>
				<last>Schmied</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Taikan</first>
				<last>Oki</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Yadu</first>
				<last>Pokhrel</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Murugesu</first>
				<last>Sivapalan</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Tara J.</first>
				<last>Troy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Albert I. J. M. van</first>
				<last>Dijk</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Tim van</first>
				<last>Emmerik</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>M.H.J. van</first>
				<last>Huijgevoort</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H.A.J. van</first>
				<last>Lanen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Charles J</first>
				<last>Vörösmarty</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Niko</first>
				<last>Wanders</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human–water interface in hydrological models.</abstract>
			<url hash="e2e575a0">G17-37001</url>
			<pages>4169-4193</pages>
			<doi>10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017</doi>
			<bibkey>Wada-2017-Human–water</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="38">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, Volume 42, Issue 4</booktitle>
			<publisher>Informa UK Limited</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Assessing the quality of the streamflow record for a long-term reference hydrometric station: Bow River at Banff</title>
			<author>
				<first>Paul H.</first>
				<last>Whitfield</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>The operational history of one of Canada’s longest operating hydrometric stations is reviewed in detail, including flood estimates that precede formal hydrometric monitoring. The assessment inspects the early and operational history, the published streamflow record and the stage-discharge measurements collected since 1909. Methods used to estimate pre-operational high flows and the operational history are reviewed to establish potential issues with changes in technology, location and measurement sections. The streamflow record is screened for discontinuities and change. The stage-discharge measurements used to establish the rating curve for open-water and ice-covered periods are assessed and used to establish the degree of support for the published data over the period of record. In the period 1882 to 1909, occasional high-stage estimates were used to estimate peak discharge, but with considerable uncertainty due to lack of stream velocity measurements and bed profiles. For the period 1909–1914 it is diff...</abstract>
			<url hash="ba8665f6">G17-38001</url>
			<pages>391-415</pages>
			<doi>10.1080/07011784.2017.1399086</doi>
			<bibkey>Whitfield-2017-Assessing</bibkey>
			<project>prj28</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="39">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrology Research, Volume 49, Issue 1</booktitle>
			<publisher>IWA Publishing</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Plot-scale assessment of soil freeze/thaw detection and variability with impedance probes: implications for remote sensing validation networks</title>
			<author>
				<first>Matthew A.</first>
				<last>Williamson</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Justin</first>
				<last>Adams</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Aaron</first>
				<last>Berg</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Chris</first>
				<last>Derksen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Peter</first>
				<last>Toose</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Anne</first>
				<last>Walker</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract Several large in-situ soil moisture-monitoring networks currently exist over seasonally frozen regions that may have use for the validation of remote sensing soil freeze/thaw (F/T) products. However, further understanding of how the existing network instrumentation responds to changes in near surface soil F/T is recommended. This case study describes the results of a small plot-scale (7 × 7 m) study from November 2013 through April 2014 instrumented with 36 impedance probes. Soil temperature and real dielectric permittivity ϵr' were measured every 15 minutes during F/T transition periods at shallow soil depths (0–10 cm). Categorical soil temperature and real dielectric permittivity techniques were used to define the soil F/T state during these periods. Results demonstrate that both methods for detecting soil F/T have strong agreement (84.7–95.6%) during the fall freeze but weak agreement (53.3–60.9%) during the spring thaw. Bootstrapping results demonstrated both techniques showed a mean difference within ±1.0°C and ±1.4 ϵr' between the standard 5 cm below surface measurement depth and probes at 2, 10 and integrated 0–5.7 cm depths installed within the same study plot. Overall this study demonstrates that the Hydra Probe offers promise for near surface soil F/T detection using existing soil moisture monitoring networks particularly for the fall freeze.</abstract>
			<url hash="023a0293">G17-39001</url>
			<pages>1-16</pages>
			<doi>10.2166/nh.2017.183</doi>
			<bibkey>Williamson-2017-Plot-scale</bibkey>
			<project>prj42</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="40">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 21, Issue 4</booktitle>
			<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Inter-comparison of daily precipitation products for large-scale hydro-climatic applications over Canada</title>
			<author>
				<first>Jefferson S.</first>
				<last>Wong</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Barrie</first>
				<last>Bonsal</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Zilefac Elvis</first>
				<last>Asong</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. A number of global and regional gridded climate products based on multiple data sources are available that can potentially provide reliable estimates of precipitation for climate and hydrological studies. However, research into the consistency of these products for various regions has been limited and in many cases non-existent. This study inter-compares several gridded precipitation products over 15 terrestrial ecozones in Canada for different seasons. The spatial and temporal variability of the errors (relative to station observations) was quantified over the period of 1979 to 2012 at a 0.5° and daily spatio-temporal resolution. These datasets were assessed in their ability to represent the daily variability of precipitation amounts by four performance measures: percentage of bias, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and standard deviation ratio. Results showed that most of the datasets were relatively skilful in central Canada. However, they tended to overestimate precipitation amounts in the west and underestimate in the north and east, with the underestimation being particularly dominant in northern Canada (above 60° N). The global product by WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) augmented by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data (WFDEI [GPCC]) performed best with respect to different metrics. The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) product performed comparably with WFDEI [GPCC]; however, it only provides data starting in 2002. All the datasets performed best in summer, followed by autumn, spring, and winter in order of decreasing quality. Findings from this study can provide guidance to potential users regarding the performance of different precipitation products for a range of geographical regions and time periods.</abstract>
			<url hash="cd129109">G17-40001</url>
			<pages>2163-2185</pages>
			<doi>10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017</doi>
			<bibkey>Wong-2017-Inter-comparison</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="41">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Hydrological Processes, Volume 31, Issue 19</booktitle>
			<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach</title>
			<author>
				<first>Fuad</first>
				<last>Yassin</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Saman</first>
				<last>Razavi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>H. S.</first>
				<last>Wheater</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Gonzalo</first>
				<last>Sapriza-Azuri</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Bruce</first>
				<last>Davison</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Alain</first>
				<last>Pietroniro</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so-called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high-fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow-based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land-surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.</abstract>
			<url hash="75aef66c">G17-41001</url>
			<pages>3320-3333</pages>
			<doi>10.1002/hyp.11267</doi>
			<bibkey>Yassin-2017-Enhanced</bibkey>
			<project>prj20</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="42">
		<meta>
			<booktitle> </booktitle>
			<publisher>Copernicus GmbH</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Impacts of droughts and extreme temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones</title>
			<author>
				<first>J. von</first>
				<last>Buttlar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Jakob</first>
				<last>Zscheischler</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Anja</first>
				<last>Rammig</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Sebastian</first>
				<last>Sippel</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Markus</first>
				<last>Reichstein</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Alexander</first>
				<last>Knohl</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Martin</first>
				<last>Jung</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Olaf</first>
				<last>Menzer</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>M. Altaf</first>
				<last>Arain</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Nina</first>
				<last>Buchmann</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Alessandro</first>
				<last>Cescatti</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Damiano</first>
				<last>Gianelle</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Gerard</first>
				<last>Kieley</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>B. E.</first>
				<last>Law</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Vincenzo</first>
				<last>Magliulo</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Hank A.</first>
				<last>Margolis</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Harry</first>
				<last>McCaughey</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Lutz</first>
				<last>Merbold</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mirco</first>
				<last>Migliavacca</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Leonardo</first>
				<last>Montagnani</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>W. C.</first>
				<last>Oechel</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Marián</first>
				<last>Pavelka</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Matthias</first>
				<last>Peichl</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Serge</first>
				<last>Rambal</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>A.</first>
				<last>Raschi</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Russell L.</first>
				<last>Scott</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francesco Primo</first>
				<last>Vaccari</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Eva van</first>
				<last>Gorsel</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Andrej</first>
				<last>Varlagin</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Georg</first>
				<last>Wohlfahrt</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Miguel D.</first>
				<last>Mahecha</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress induce anomalies in ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30 year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy-covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they down-regulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction of the ecosystem’s carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco, and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a down-regulation after about two weeks. This confirms earlier theories that not only the magnitude but also the duration of an extreme event determines its impact. Our study corroborates the results of several local site-level case studies, but as a novelty generalizes these findings at the global scale. Specifically, we find that the different response functions of the two antipodal land-atmosphere fluxes GPP and Reco can also result in increasing NEP during certain extreme conditions. Apparently counterintuitive findings of this kind bear great potential for scrutinizing the mechanisms implemented in state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models and provide a benchmark for future model development and testing.</abstract>
			<url hash="671b5982">G17-42001</url>
			<doi>10.5194/bg-2017-393</doi>
			<bibkey>von Buttlar-2017-Impacts</bibkey>
			<project>prj41</project>
		</paper>
		<paper id="2">
			<title>Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the
Fraser River Basin of British Columbia</title>
			<author>
				<first>Charles L.</first>
				<last>Curry</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francis W.</first>
				<last>Zwiers</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract. The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in Western North America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June–July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute more than 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (which strongly controls the annual maximum of soil moisture), the snowmelt rate, the ENSO and PDO indices, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in the context of seasonal prediction or future projected streamflow behaviour.</abstract>
			<url hash="fe120838">G17-42002</url>
			<doi>10.5194/hess-2017-531</doi>
			<bibkey>Curry-2017-Examining</bibkey>
			<project>prj28</project>
		</paper>
		<paper id="3">
			<title>The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, from hours to years</title>
			<author>
				<first>Mridul K.</first>
				<last>Thomas</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Simone</first>
				<last>Fontana</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Marta</first>
				<last>Reyes</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Michael</first>
				<last>Kehoe</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Francesco</first>
				<last>Pomati</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Abstract Forecasting anthropogenic changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R 2 decreased from 0. 89 at 4 hours to 0.75 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell density were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics and set prediction targets for process-based models.</abstract>
			<url hash="891538ae">G17-42003</url>
			<doi>10.1101/230722</doi>
			<bibkey>Thomas-2017-The</bibkey>
			<project>prj46</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="43">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>2017 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)</booktitle>
			<publisher>IEEE</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Validation of the SMAP freeze/thaw product using categorical triple collocation</title>
			<author>
				<first>Xinlu</first>
				<last>Li</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Kaighin A.</first>
				<last>McColl</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Haobo</first>
				<last>Lyu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Xiaolan</first>
				<last>Xu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Chris</first>
				<last>Derksen</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Hui</first>
				<last>Lu</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Dara</first>
				<last>Entekhabi</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Landscape freeze/thaw (FT) state is a key variable in Earth's carbon cycle. NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission, launched in January 2015, provides global retrievals of FT state every two to three days. Validating SMAP FT observations with in-situ observations is difficult due to the substantial scale mismatch between a point estimate and a satellite footprint, inducing “representativeness errors” in the in-situ observations. Triple collocation (TC) is a validation technique that addresses this problem by combining estimates from in-situ, model and spaceborne estimates to obtain error estimates for all three products, without assuming that any product is error-free. Unfortunately, it fails when applied to binary or categorical variables, such as landscape FT state. In this study, we use a new variant of TC — categorical triple collocation (CTC) — that can be applied to binary variables, to validate the SMAP FT product across northern land regions (&gt;45N).</abstract>
			<url hash="dfa73ee7">G17-43001</url>
			<doi>10.1109/igarss.2017.8127277</doi>
			<bibkey>Li-2017-Validation</bibkey>
			<project>prj46</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="44">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Issue 7</booktitle>
			<publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas</title>
			<author>
				<first>Juan I.</first>
				<last>López‐Moreno</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Simon</first>
				<last>Gascoin</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Javier</first>
				<last>Herrero</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Eric A.</first>
				<last>Sproles</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Marc</first>
				<last>Pons</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Esteban</first>
				<last>Alonso‐González</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Lahoucine</first>
				<last>Hanich</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Abdelghani</first>
				<last>Boudhar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>K. N.</first>
				<last>Musselman</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>N. P.</first>
				<last>Molotch</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>James O.</first>
				<last>Sickman</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>John W.</first>
				<last>Pomeroy</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%–19% and 6–28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of &lt;12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of &lt; 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.</abstract>
			<url hash="8a242a46">G17-1001</url>
			<pages>074006</pages>
			<doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aa70cb</doi>
			<bibkey>López-Moreno-2017-Different</bibkey>
			<project>prj46</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
	<volume id="45">
		<meta>
			<booktitle>Environmental Science: Nano, Volume 4, Issue 6</booktitle>
			<publisher>Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)</publisher>
			<address/>
			<year>2017</year>
		</meta>
		<paper id="1">
			<title>Cellulose nanocrystal zero-valent iron nanocomposites for groundwater remediation</title>
			<author>
				<first>Nathan</first>
				<last>Bossa</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Alexis W.</first>
				<last>Carpenter</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Naresh</first>
				<last>Kumar</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Charles‐François de</first>
				<last>Lannoy</last>
			</author>
			<author>
				<first>Mark R.</first>
				<last>Wiesner</last>
			</author>
			<abstract>Use of crystal nanocellulose to stabilize nano-ZVI has tremendous potential to improve the capability and applicability of nano-ZVI based subsurface remediation systems in an environmentally sustainable way.</abstract>
			<url hash="8a242a46">G17-1001</url>
			<pages>1294-1303</pages>
			<doi>10.1039/c6en00572a</doi>
			<bibkey>Bossa-2017-Cellulose</bibkey>
			<project>prj4</project>
		</paper>
	</volume>
</collection>