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Conflict and Nighttime Lights

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Conflict and Nighttime Lights#

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This notebook analyses how Nighttime Lights changed as the conflict in the country changed. Conflict is measured using ACLED data and a conflict index is calculated as geometric mean between Number of fatalities and Number of events. This conflict index is then compred to Nighttime lights (measured as lumiinosity) wihout gas flaring. The Nighttime Lights data is retrieved from BlackMarble.

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Insights#

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The following questions quide the data analysis -

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  • Is there a direct correlation between Conflict Index and Nighttime Lights?

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  • How did NTL change in regions that saw high increase in conflict compared to 6 months prior?

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  • How is NTL different in EAO controlled areas and other regions?

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For this, we used the control map of Myanmar as of March 2024 released by the Special Advisory Council. The contestation and control is divided into 8 regions starting from ‘stable junta control’ to ‘complete resistance control’. We expect to see that the regions that have moved into ‘complete resistance control’ have also experienced high increase in conflict.

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Nighttime Lights in EAO Controlled Areas Vs Junta Controlled Areas#

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  • 1:Stable junta control

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  • 2:Junta dependent on local proxy militias for control

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  • 3:Junta forces under regular attack from resistance forces; administration functions remain weak

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  • 4:Resistance controls growing territory but still cannot consolidate fuller control

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  • 5:Limited junta movement, dependent on ceasefires

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  • 6:Junta control receding; resistance defending increasing territories & asserting local administration

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  • 7:Strong resistance control & local administration—90%+ of township

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  • 8:Full resistance control & local administration—whole township

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There is a huge peak in the currently EAO controlled regions back in April 2023 where there is massive peak in nighttime lights. The same peak is not visible in the junta controlled regions. There is a lot more consistent light in regions where junta forces are under regular attack (category 3).

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Nighttime Lights in EAO Controlled Townships#

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Nighttime Lights in Junta Controlled Townships#

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Conflict and NTL in Very severely and severely conflicted regions#

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In Maungdaw, there is a corresponding increase of NTL with conflict index in August 2022 and in April 2024. Similarly, there is a decrease in NTL with conflict in October 2022. The opposite movement is seen in May 2022 when the NTL goes up and the conflict came down.

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In Lashio, October 2023 saw a corresponding increase in NTL and Conflict. However, early in 2024 the same level of NTL also has a lower level of conflict.

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No convincing trends can be identified to understand the relationship between these variables yet. A simple correlation plot between conflict index and NTL for severely conflicted locations and very severely conflicted location also reveals that no trend can be seen.

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Comparing difference in conflict with difference in NTL for a 6-month-period#

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Comparing NTL and Conflict Increase from Baseline period of October 2020-March 2021#

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+By World Bank +

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+ Last updated on Oct 10, 2024. +
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+ Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the World Bank Group’s official position. All maps are for illustrative purposes and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the World Bank, concerning the legal status of any country or territory or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries +
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+ All content (unless otherwise specified) is subject to the Mozilla Public License. +
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