peak_water.bib

@online{AbramowitzHandbookMathematical,
  title = {Abramowitz: Handbook of Mathematical Functions with... - {{Google Scholar}}},
  url = {https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Handbook%20of%20mathematical%20formulas%2C%20graphs%2C%20and%20mathematical%20tables&author=M.%20Abramowitz&publication_year=1965},
  urldate = {2021-10-05},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/7HI5MW9D/scholar_lookup.html}
}

@article{azamGlaciohydrologyHimalayaKarakoram,
  title = {Glaciohydrology of the {{Himalaya}}-{{Karakoram}}},
  author = {Azam, Mohd. Farooq and Kargel, Jeffrey S. and Shea, Joseph M. and Nepal, Santosh and Haritashya, Umesh K. and Srivastava, Smriti and Maussion, Fabien and Qazi, Nuzhat and Chevallier, Pierre and Dimri, A. P. and Kulkarni, Anil V. and Cogley, J. Graham and Bahuguna, Ishmohan},
  journaltitle = {Science},
  volume = {373},
  number = {6557},
  pages = {eabf3668},
  publisher = {{American Association for the Advancement of Science}},
  doi = {10.1126/science.abf3668},
  url = {https://www.science.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abf3668},
  urldate = {2021-10-12},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/RD2RCSUN/Azam et al. - Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram.pdf}
}

@article{biemansImportanceSnowGlacier2019,
  title = {Importance of Snow and Glacier Meltwater for Agriculture on the {{Indo}}-{{Gangetic Plain}}},
  author = {Biemans, H. and Siderius, C. and Lutz, A. F. and Nepal, S. and Ahmad, B. and Hassan, T. and von Bloh, Werner and Wijngaard, R. R. and Wester, P. and Shrestha, A. B.},
  options = {useprefix=true},
  date = {2019},
  journaltitle = {Nature Sustainability},
  volume = {2},
  number = {7},
  pages = {594--601},
  publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/Q9VECG7C/Biemans et al. - 2019 - Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agric.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/2WEZBTDR/s41893-019-0305-3.html}
}

@article{blissGlobalResponseGlacier2014,
  title = {Global Response of Glacier Runoff to Twenty-First Century Climate Change},
  author = {Bliss, Andrew and Hock, Regine and Radić, Valentina},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
  volume = {119},
  number = {4},
  pages = {717--730},
  issn = {2169-9011},
  doi = {10.1002/2013JF002931},
  url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2013JF002931},
  urldate = {2021-03-11},
  abstract = {AbstractThe hydrology of many important river systems in the world is influenced by the presence of glaciers in their upper reaches. We assess the global-scale response of glacier runoff to climate change, where glacier runoff is defined as all melt and rain water that runs off the glacierized area without refreezing. With an elevation-dependent glacier mass balance model, we project monthly glacier runoff for all mountain glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica until 2100 using temperature and precipitation scenarios from 14 global climate models. We aggregate results for 18 glacierized regions. Despite continuous glacier net mass loss in all regions, trends in annual glacier runoff differ significantly among regions depending on the balance between increased glacier melt and reduction in glacier storage as glaciers shrink. While most regions show significant negative runoff trends, some regions exhibit steady increases in runoff (Canadian and Russian Arctic), or increases followed by decreases (Svalbard and Iceland). Annual glacier runoff is dominated by melt in most regions, but rain is a major contributor in the monsoon-affected regions of Asia and maritime regions such as New Zealand and Iceland. Annual net glacier mass loss dominates total glacier melt especially in some high-latitude regions, while seasonal melt is dominant in wetter climate regimes. Our results highlight the variety of glacier runoff responses to climate change and the need to include glacier net mass loss in assessments of future hydrological change.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {climate change,glacier mass balance,glacier runoff},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/AMZLQWCV/Bliss et al. - 2014 - Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/J79PRWPP/2013JF002931.html}
}

@article{bookhagenCompleteHimalayanHydrological2010,
  title = {Toward a Complete {{Himalayan}} Hydrological Budget: Spatiotemporal Distribution of Snowmelt and Rainfall and Their Impact on River Discharge},
  shorttitle = {Toward a Complete {{Himalayan}} Hydrological Budget},
  author = {Bookhagen, Bodo and Burbank, Douglas W.},
  date = {2010},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
  volume = {115},
  number = {F3},
  publisher = {{Wiley Online Library}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/3LTKKBWB/Bookhagen and Burbank - 2010 - Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget S.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/KBHJV5ZI/2009JF001426.html}
}

@article{brunnerPresentFutureWater2019,
  title = {Present and Future Water Scarcity in {{Switzerland}}: Potential for Alleviation through Reservoirs and Lakes},
  shorttitle = {Present and Future Water Scarcity in {{Switzerland}}},
  author = {Brunner, Manuela I. and Björnsen Gurung, Astrid and Zappa, Massimiliano and Zekollari, Harry and Farinotti, Daniel and Stähli, Manfred},
  date = {2019-05-20},
  journaltitle = {Science of The Total Environment},
  shortjournal = {Science of The Total Environment},
  volume = {666},
  pages = {1033--1047},
  issn = {0048-9697},
  doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.169},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719306576},
  urldate = {2021-03-30},
  abstract = {In Alpine regions, future changes in glacier and snow cover are expected to change runoff regimes towards higher winter but lower summer discharge. The low summer discharge will coincide with the highest water demand for irrigation, and local and regional water shortages are expected to become more likely. One possible measure to adapt to these changes can be the extension of current uses of artificial reservoirs and natural lakes to the provision of water for the alleviation of water shortage. This study assesses the potential of reservoirs and natural lakes for the alleviation of water shortages in a nationwide analysis in Switzerland. To do so, we estimated water supply and demand under current and future conditions both under normal and extreme runoff regimes for 307 catchments. Water demand was assessed for various categories including drinking water, industrial use, artificial snow production, agriculture, ecological flow requirements, and hydropower production. The aggregated supply and demand estimates were used to derive water surplus/shortage estimates. These were then compared to the storage capacity of reservoirs and natural lakes within a catchment to determine the potential for alleviating summer water scarcity. Our results show that water shortage is expected mainly in the lowland region north of the Alps, and less in the Alps. In this lowland region, the potential of natural lakes for alleviating water scarcity is high. This potential is lower in the Alps where it is expected to increase or decrease under future conditions depending on the region of interest. Catchments with a high storage capacity can potentially contribute to the alleviation of water shortage downstream. We conclude that a spatial mismatch between water scarcity and storage availability exists since water stored in reservoirs on the southern side of the Alps is often not available for the use on the northern side.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Climate change,Multi-purpose reservoirs,PREVAH model,Storage capacity,Water demand,Water shortage},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/LSF8CD36/Brunner et al. - 2019 - Present and future water scarcity in Switzerland .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/N774AWJY/S0048969719306576.html}
}

@article{chenInfluenceAlpineGlaciers1990,
  title = {On the Influence of {{Alpine}} Glaciers on Runoff},
  author = {Chen, Jiyang and Ohmura, Atsumu},
  date = {1990},
  journaltitle = {IAHS Publ},
  volume = {193},
  pages = {117--125},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/FBV8CSII/Chen and Ohmura - 1990 - On the influence of Alpine glaciers on runoff.pdf}
}

@article{cookGlobalWarming212014,
  title = {Global Warming and 21 St Century Drying},
  author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Seager, Richard and Coats, Sloan},
  date = {2014-11-01},
  journaltitle = {Climate Dynamics},
  shortjournal = {Clim Dyn},
  volume = {43},
  number = {9},
  pages = {2607--2627},
  publisher = {{Springer Berlin Heidelberg}},
  issn = {1432-0894},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y},
  url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y},
  urldate = {2021-05-04},
  abstract = {Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of ≤−1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 \%. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of ≤−1; 11 to 44 \%), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.},
  issue = {9},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/WZGBMVN2/Cook et al. - 2014 - Global warming and 21 st century drying.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/KMSQMTCN/s00382-014-2075-y .html}
}

@book{cuffeyPhysicsGlaciers2011,
  title = {The Physics of Glaciers},
  author = {Cuffey, Kurt and Paterson, W. S. B.},
  date = {2011},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Glaciology},
  edition = {4},
  volume = {57},
  number = {202},
  issn = {0022-1430},
  doi = {10.3189/002214311796405906},
  abstract = {Explains the physical principles underlying the behaviour of glaciers and ice sheets and concludes with a chapter on the information about past climate and atmospheric composition obtainable from ice cores. The past 40 years have seen major advances in most aspects of the subject; the book concentrates on these. It is an updated and expanded version of the second edition, and is now available in the long-awaited paperback format. Much of the book deals with developments since the second edition was published.Dr Paterson's introduction to glacier studies was with the British North Greenland Expedition in 1953-4. He emigrated to Canada in 1957 and between 1959 and 1980 studied glaciers in the Canadian Arctic and the Rocky Mountains, mainly under the auspices of the Canadian Government's Polar Continental Shelf Project. Since 1980 he has done consulting work and has also been a visiting scientist with the Geophysics Department at the University of Copenhagen (three times) and with the Australian Antarctic Division. He has also given a comprehensive lecture course at the Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology in Lanzhou, China. He is now retired (more or less) and lives in British Columbia.New paperback edition of a classic textWell-known and respected authorUpdated and expanded since the second edition, reflecting the advances in most aspects of the subject over the last 40 years.},
  isbn = {978-0-12-369461-4},
  pagetotal = {383-384},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/775RCHN7/Cuffey, Paterson - 2011 - The physics of glaciers.pdf}
}

@article{eyringOverviewCoupledModel2016,
  title = {Overview of the {{Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase}} 6 ({{CMIP6}}) Experimental Design and Organization},
  author = {Eyring, Veronika and Bony, Sandrine and Meehl, Gerald A. and Senior, Catherine A. and Stevens, Bjorn and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
  date = {2016},
  journaltitle = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {1937--1958},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016},
  url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1937/2016/},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/J6Z9CYCV/Eyring et al. - 2016 - Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Proj.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/M3DDK6BG/2016.html}
}

@article{farahmandGeneralizedFrameworkDeriving2015,
  title = {A Generalized Framework for Deriving Nonparametric Standardized Drought Indicators},
  author = {Farahmand, Alireza and AghaKouchak, Amir},
  date = {2015-02-01},
  journaltitle = {Advances in Water Resources},
  shortjournal = {Advances in Water Resources},
  volume = {76},
  pages = {140--145},
  issn = {0309-1708},
  doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.11.012},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170814002322},
  urldate = {2021-06-24},
  abstract = {This paper introduces the Standardized Drought Analysis Toolbox (SDAT) that offers a generalized framework for deriving nonparametric univariate and multivariate standardized indices. Current indicators suffer from deficiencies including temporal inconsistency, and statistical incomparability. Different indicators have varying scales and ranges and their values cannot be compared with each other directly. Most drought indicators rely on a representative parametric probability distribution function that fits the data. However, a parametric distribution function may not fit the data, especially in continental/global scale studies. SDAT is based on a nonparametric framework that can be applied to different climatic variables including precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity, without having to assume representative parametric distributions. The most attractive feature of the framework is that it leads to statistically consistent drought indicators based on different variables.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Drought,Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI),Standardized Drought Analysis Toolbox (SDAT),Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI),Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/48Y4RL9E/Farahmand and AghaKouchak - 2015 - A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/RAHVCMXH/S0309170814002322.html}
}

@article{gleickPeakWaterLimits2010,
  title = {Peak Water Limits to Freshwater Withdrawal and Use},
  author = {Gleick, Peter H. and Palaniappan, Meena},
  date = {2010},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {107},
  number = {25},
  pages = {11155--11162},
  publisher = {{National Acad Sciences}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/GRI86J43/Gleick and Palaniappan - 2010 - Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/JRVIZKU9/11155.html}
}

@online{globalrunoffdatacentreMajorRiverBasins2020,
  title = {Major {{River Basins}} of the {{World}}},
  author = {{Global Runoff Data Centre}},
  date = {2020},
  url = {https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/}
}

@article{harrisUpdatedHighresolutionGrids2014a,
  title = {Updated High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climatic Observations–the {{CRU TS3}}. 10 {{Dataset}}},
  author = {Harris, IPDJ and Jones, Philip D. and Osborn, Timothy J. and Lister, David H.},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {International journal of climatology},
  volume = {34},
  number = {3},
  pages = {623--642},
  publisher = {{Wiley Online Library}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/9BNNQUVH/Harris et al. - 2014 - Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/7XNQSVT7/joc.html}
}

@article{hussDistributedIceThickness2012,
  title = {Distributed Ice Thickness and Volume of All Glaciers around the Globe},
  author = {Huss, Matthias and Farinotti, Daniel},
  date = {2012},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
  volume = {117},
  number = {F4},
  publisher = {{Wiley Online Library}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/MJS7RVT7/Huss and Farinotti - 2012 - Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glacie.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/8BJ3QLRY/2012JF002523.html;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/FRXPYKDD/2012JF002523.html}
}

@inproceedings{hussEarthFutureMountains2017,
  title = {Earth ’ s {{Future Toward}} Mountains without Permanent Snow and Ice},
  author = {Huss, M. and Bookhagen, B. and Huggel, C. and Jacobsen, D. and Bradley, R. S. and Clague, J. and Vuille, M. and Buytaert, W. and Cayan, D. and Greenwood, G. and Mark, B. and Milner, A. and Weingartner, R. and Winder, M.},
  date = {2017},
  abstract = {The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacierand moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/SH98ETLQ/Huss et al. - 2017 - Earth ’ s Future Toward mountains without permanen.pdf}
}

@article{hussFutureHighmountainHydrology2010,
  title = {Future High-Mountain Hydrology: A New Parameterization of Glacier Retreat},
  shorttitle = {Future High-Mountain Hydrology},
  author = {Huss, Matthias and Jouvet, Guillaume and Farinotti, Daniel and Bauder, Andreas},
  date = {2010},
  journaltitle = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume = {14},
  number = {5},
  pages = {815--829},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/XJ773FG2/Huss et al. - 2010 - Future high-mountain hydrology a new parameteriza.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/B2FQ557I/2010.html}
}

@article{hussGlobalscaleHydrologicalResponse2018,
  title = {Global-Scale Hydrological Response to Future Glacier Mass Loss},
  author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine},
  date = {2018-02},
  journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
  shortjournal = {Nature Clim Change},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {135--140},
  issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
  doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x},
  url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0049-x},
  urldate = {2020-12-09},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/NY5KF8BQ/Huss and Hock - 2018 - Global-scale hydrological response to future glaci.pdf}
}

@article{hussNewModelGlobal2015,
  title = {A New Model for Global Glacier Change and Sea-Level Rise},
  author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine},
  date = {2015},
  journaltitle = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
  shortjournal = {Front. Earth Sci.},
  volume = {3},
  publisher = {{Frontiers}},
  issn = {2296-6463},
  doi = {10.3389/feart.2015.00054},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2015.00054/full},
  urldate = {2021-02-24},
  abstract = {The anticipated retreat of glaciers around the globe will pose far-reaching challenges to the management of fresh water resources and significantly contribute to sea-level rise within the coming decades. Here, we present a new model for calculating the 21st century mass changes of all glaciers on Earth outside the ice sheets. The Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) includes mass loss due to frontal ablation at marine-terminating glacier fronts and accounts for glacier advance/retreat and surface Elevation changes. Simulations are driven with monthly near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 14 Global Circulation Models forced by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the model yields a global glacier volume loss of 25-48\% between 2010 and 2100. For calculating glacier contribution to sea-level rise, we account for ice located below sea-level presently displacing ocean water. This effect reduces glacier contribution by 11-14\%, so that our model predicts a sea-level equivalent (multi-model mean +-1 standard deviation) of 79+-24 mm (RCP2.6), 108+-28 mm (RCP4.5) and 157+-31 mm (RCP8.5). Mass losses by frontal ablation account for 10\% of total ablation globally, and up to 30\% regionally. Regional equilibrium line altitudes are projected to rise by 100-800 m until 2100, but the effect on ice wastage depends on initial glacier hypsometries.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Climate Change,frontal ablation,Glacier mass balance,Glacier retreat,glaciers,global,projections,SEA-LEVEL RISE},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/NNBC65PW/Huss and Hock - 2015 - A new model for global glacier change and sea-leve.pdf}
}

@article{immerzeelReconcilingHighaltitudePrecipitation2015,
  title = {Reconciling High-Altitude Precipitation in the Upper {{Indus}} Basin with Glacier Mass Balances and Runoff},
  author = {Immerzeel, W. W. and Wanders, N. and Lutz, A. F. and Shea, J. M. and Bierkens, M. F. P.},
  date = {2015-11-26},
  journaltitle = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume = {19},
  number = {11},
  pages = {4673--4687},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  issn = {1027-5606},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015},
  url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/19/4673/2015/},
  urldate = {2021-03-11},
  abstract = {{$<$}p{$><$}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{$>$}Abstract.{$<$}/strong{$>$} Mountain ranges in Asia are important water suppliers, especially if downstream climates are arid, water demands are high and glaciers are abundant. In such basins, the hydrological cycle depends heavily on high-altitude precipitation. Yet direct observations of high-altitude precipitation are lacking and satellite derived products are of insufficient resolution and quality to capture spatial variation and magnitude of mountain precipitation. Here we use glacier mass balances to inversely infer the high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin and show that the amount of precipitation required to sustain the observed mass balances of large glacier systems is far beyond what is observed at valley stations or estimated by gridded precipitation products. An independent validation with observed river flow confirms that the water balance can indeed only be closed when the high-altitude precipitation on average is more than twice as high and in extreme cases up to a factor of 10 higher than previously thought. We conclude that these findings alter the present understanding of high-altitude hydrology and will have an important bearing on climate change impact studies, planning and design of hydropower plants and irrigation reservoirs as well as the regional geopolitical situation in general.{$<$}/p{$>$}},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/UN7E8H57/Immerzeel et al. - 2015 - Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upp.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/5APZ3DW4/2015.html}
}

@article{immerzeelRisingRiverFlows2013,
  title = {Rising River Flows throughout the Twenty-First Century in Two {{Himalayan}} Glacierized Watersheds},
  author = {Immerzeel, W. W. and Pellicciotti, F. and Bierkens, M. F. P.},
  date = {2013},
  journaltitle = {Nature geoscience},
  volume = {6},
  number = {9},
  pages = {742--745},
  publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/86EVIJYI/Immerzeel et al. - 2013 - Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first cen.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/22HYHELY/ngeo1896.html}
}

@book{ipccClimateChange20142014,
  title = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Working {{Group II}} Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the {{Intergovernmental Panel}} on {{Climate Change}}},
  shorttitle = {Climate Change 2014},
  author = {IPCC},
  editor = {Field, Christopher B. and Barros, Vicente R.},
  date = {2014},
  publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  location = {{New York, NY}},
  abstract = {This work focuses on why climate change matters and is organized into two parts, devoted respectively to human and natural systems and regional aspects, incorporating results from the reports of Working Groups I and III. The volume addresses impacts that have already occurred and risks of future impacts, especially the way those risks change with the amount of climate change that occurs and with investments in adaptation to climate changes that cannot be avoided. For both past and future impacts, a core focus of the assessment is characterizing knowledge about vulnerability, the characteristics and interactions that make some events devastating, while others pass with little notice.--},
  isbn = {978-1-107-64165-5 978-1-107-05807-1 978-1-107-68386-0 978-1-107-05816-3},
  langid = {english},
  pagetotal = {1},
  keywords = {Climatic changes,Global environmental change,Government policy,International cooperation},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/SKACS546/Field et al. - 2014 - Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation, and vuln.pdf}
}

@book{ipccClimateChange20142014a,
  title = {Climate {{Change}} 2014: Impacts, {{Adaptation}}, and {{Vulnerability}}. {{Part B}}: Regional {{Aspects}}. {{Contribution}} of {{Working Group II}} to the {{Fifth Assessment Report}} of the {{Intergovernmental Panel}} on {{Climate Change}}},
  shorttitle = {Climate Change 2014},
  author = {IPCC},
  editor = {Field, Christopher B. and Barros, Vicente R.},
  date = {2014},
  publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  location = {{New York, NY}},
  abstract = {This work focuses on why climate change matters and is organized into two parts, devoted respectively to human and natural systems and regional aspects, incorporating results from the reports of Working Groups I and III. The volume addresses impacts that have already occurred and risks of future impacts, especially the way those risks change with the amount of climate change that occurs and with investments in adaptation to climate changes that cannot be avoided. For both past and future impacts, a core focus of the assessment is characterizing knowledge about vulnerability, the characteristics and interactions that make some events devastating, while others pass with little notice.--},
  isbn = {978-1-107-64165-5 978-1-107-05807-1 978-1-107-68386-0 978-1-107-05816-3},
  langid = {english},
  pagetotal = {688},
  keywords = {Climatic changes,Global environmental change,Government policy,International cooperation},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/SABX2F65/Field et al. - 2014 - Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation, and vuln.pdf}
}

@article{janssonConceptGlacierStorage2003,
  title = {The Concept of Glacier Storage: A Review},
  shorttitle = {The Concept of Glacier Storage},
  author = {Jansson, Peter and Hock, Regine and Schneider, Thomas},
  date = {2003},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
  volume = {282},
  number = {1-4},
  pages = {116--129},
  publisher = {{Elsevier}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/A8YSBU9M/Jansson et al. - 2003 - The concept of glacier storage a review.pdf}
}

@article{kaserContributionPotentialGlaciers2010,
  title = {Contribution Potential of Glaciers to Water Availability in Different Climate Regimes},
  author = {Kaser, Georg and Großhauser, Martin and Marzeion, Ben},
  date = {2010-11-23},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  shortjournal = {PNAS},
  volume = {107},
  number = {47},
  eprint = {21059938},
  eprinttype = {pmid},
  pages = {20223--20227},
  publisher = {{National Academy of Sciences}},
  issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1008162107},
  url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/107/47/20223},
  urldate = {2021-03-05},
  abstract = {Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/85II3CEA/Kaser et al. - 2010 - Contribution potential of glaciers to water availa.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/2IUYTWS3/20223.html}
}

@article{kienholzNewMethodDeriving2014,
  title = {A New Method for Deriving Glacier Centerlines Applied to Glaciers in {{Alaska}} and Northwest {{Canada}}},
  author = {Kienholz, C. and Rich, J. L. and Arendt, A. A. and Hock, Regine},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {The Cryosphere},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {503--519},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/VASDNI3R/Kienholz et al. - 2014 - A new method for deriving glacier centerlines appl.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/L9T2MD5C/2014.html}
}

@article{kraaijenbrinkClimateChangeDecisive2021,
  title = {Climate Change Decisive for {{Asia}}’s Snow Meltwater Supply},
  author = {Kraaijenbrink, Philip D. A. and Stigter, Emmy E. and Yao, Tandong and Immerzeel, Walter W.},
  date = {2021-07},
  journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
  shortjournal = {Nat. Clim. Chang.},
  volume = {11},
  number = {7},
  pages = {591--597},
  publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  issn = {1758-6798},
  doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01074-x},
  urldate = {2021-10-20},
  abstract = {Streamflow in high-mountain Asia is influenced by meltwater from snow and glaciers, and determining impacts of climate change on the region’s cryosphere is essential to understand future water supply. Past and future changes in seasonal snow are of particular interest, as specifics at the scale of the full region are largely unknown. Here we combine models with observations to show that regional snowmelt is a more important contributor to streamflow than glacier melt, that snowmelt magnitude and timing changed considerably during 1979–2019 and that future snow meltwater supply may decrease drastically. The expected changes are strongly dependent on the degree of climate change, however, and large variations exist among river basins. The projected response of snowmelt to climate change indicates that to sustain the important seasonal buffering role of the snowpacks in high-mountain Asia, it is imperative to limit future climate change.},
  issue = {7},
  langid = {english},
  annotation = {Bandiera\_abtest: a Cg\_type: Nature Research Journals Primary\_atype: Research Subject\_term: Cryospheric science;Hydrology;Projection and prediction Subject\_term\_id: cryospheric-science;hydrology;projection-and-prediction},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/Z2N4SA67/Kraaijenbrink et al. - 2021 - Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/QKEISH54/s41558-021-01074-x.html}
}

@article{kummuClimatedrivenInterannualVariability2014,
  title = {Climate-Driven Interannual Variability of Water Scarcity in Food Production Potential: A Global Analysis},
  shorttitle = {Climate-Driven Interannual Variability of Water Scarcity in Food Production Potential},
  author = {Kummu, M. and Gerten, Dieter and Heinke, J. and Konzmann, M. and Varis, O.},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume = {18},
  number = {2},
  pages = {447--461},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/RLWQ33TM/Kummu et al. - 2014 - Climate-driven interannual variability of water sc.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/4NI7YUYY/2014.html}
}

@article{lambrechtTemporalVariabilityNonsteady2009,
  title = {Temporal Variability of the Non-Steady Contribution from Glaciers to Water Discharge in Western {{Austria}}},
  author = {Lambrecht, Astrid and Mayer, Christoph},
  date = {2009-10-15},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
  shortjournal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  volume = {376},
  number = {3},
  pages = {353--361},
  issn = {0022-1694},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.045},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169409004466},
  urldate = {2021-03-22},
  abstract = {A long series of negative glacier mass balance years during the last decades influenced the run-off characteristics of glacierized catchments in the Austrian Alps. For balanced conditions, run-off from catchments containing glaciers shows increased values for warm and dry periods, but the annual sum generally equals the total basin precipitation. In contrast, the recent series of negative glacier mass balances reduced the storage volume of the glaciers, providing additional water in the rivers for many years. The existing Austrian Glacier Inventories allowed the determination of very accurate glacier volume changes between 1969 and 1998. These data were used to calculate the excess discharge for two catchment basins in western Austria (one unaffected by hydro power management, one with hydropower management) for the time period between the inventories which then was compared to the accumulated river run-off from the individual basins. The inter-annual distribution of the total excess could be determined by using existing mass balance series from several glaciers in the different basins as scaling functions. In addition, a degree-day approach was used to provide information about the role of above-average glacial melt water on a monthly basis. Considering different gauging stations along the rivers, it was found that the amount of excess discharge during the entire period was in the range of 1.5–9\% of the total discharge, depending on the relative degree of glacier coverage (4–40\%). For summer months only, this fraction increases to 3–12\%. In individual months, however, the relative importance of excess melt can reach more than 25\% in a highly glacier covered catchment (40\%), but it can also contribute up to 20\% for catchments with a glacier coverage of 8–15\%.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Glacier retreat,Glaciers,Mass-balance,Mountain hydrology,Run-off},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/YFJIGTVE/Lambrecht and Mayer - 2009 - Temporal variability of the non-steady contributio.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/URJ7T8LP/S0022169409004466.html}
}

@article{marzeionFutureSealevelChange2012a,
  title = {Past and Future Sea-Level Change from the Surface Mass Balance of Glaciers},
  author = {Marzeion, Ben and Jarosch, A. H. and Hofer, Marlis},
  date = {2012},
  journaltitle = {The Cryosphere},
  volume = {6},
  number = {6},
  pages = {1295--1322},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/Z5KA94RW/Marzeion et al. - 2012 - Past and future sea-level change from the surface .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/EYEH2ZWI/2012.html}
}

@article{maussionOpenGlobalGlacier2019,
  title = {The {{Open Global Glacier Model}} ({{OGGM}}) v1.1},
  author = {Maussion, Fabien and Butenko, Anton and Champollion, Nicolas and Dusch, Matthias and Eis, Julia and Fourteau, Kevin and Gregor, Philipp and Jarosch, Alexander H and Landmann, Johannes and Oesterle, Felix and Recinos, Beatriz and Rothenpieler, Timo and Vlug, Anouk and Wild, Christian T and Marzeion, Ben},
  date = {2019},
  journaltitle = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  volume = {12},
  number = {3},
  pages = {909--931},
  issn = {19919603},
  doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000331775},
  urldate = {2020-07-06},
  abstract = {Despite their importance for sea-level rise, seasonal water availability, and as a source of geohazards, mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world. The modeling chain comprises data downloading tools (glacier outlines, topography, climate, validation data), a preprocessing module, a mass-balance model, a distributed ice thickness estimation model, and an ice-flow model. The monthly mass balance is obtained from gridded climate data and a temperature index melt model. To our knowledge, OGGM is the first global model to explicitly simulate glacier dynamics: the model relies on the shallow-ice approximation to compute the depth-integrated flux of ice along multiple connected flow lines. In this paper, we describe and illustrate each processing step by applying the model to a selection of glaciers before running global simulations under idealized climate forcings. Even without an in-depth calibration, the model shows very realistic behavior. We are able to reproduce earlier estimates of global glacier volume by varying the ice dynamical parameters within a range of plausible values. At the same time, the increased complexity of OGGM compared to other prevalent global glacier models comes at a reasonable computational cost: several dozen glaciers can be simulated on a personal computer, whereas global simulations realized in a supercomputing environment take up to a few hours per century. Thanks to the modular framework, modules of various complexity can be added to the code base, which allows for new kinds of model intercomparison studies in a controlled environment. Future developments will add new physical processes to the model as well as automated calibration tools. Extensions or alternative parameterizations can be easily added by the community thanks to comprehensive documentation. OGGM spans a wide range of applications, from ice-climate interaction studies at millennial timescales to estimates of the contribution of glaciers to past and future sea-level change. It has the potential to become a self-sustained community-driven model for global and regional glacier evolution.},
  keywords = {Alexander H,Anouk,Anton,Beatriz,Ben,Butenko,Champollion,Christian T,Dusch,Eis,Fabien,Felix,Fourteau,Gregor,Jarosch,Johannes Marian,Julia,Kévin,Landmann,Marzeion,Matthias,Maussion,Nicolas,Oesterle,Philipp,Recinos,Rothenpieler,Timo,Vlug,Wild},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/5RFK85EM/Maussion et al. - 2019 - The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1.pdf}
}

@article{mishraDifferentialImpactClimate2020,
  title = {Differential {{Impact}} of {{Climate Change}} on the {{Hydropower Economics}} of {{Two River Basins}} in {{High Mountain Asia}}},
  author = {Mishra, Shruti K. and Veselka, Thomas D. and Prusevich, Alexander A. and Grogan, Danielle S. and Lammers, Richard B. and Rounce, David R. and Ali, Syed H. and Christian, Mark H.},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
  shortjournal = {Front. Environ. Sci.},
  volume = {8},
  publisher = {{Frontiers}},
  issn = {2296-665X},
  doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2020.00026},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2020.00026/full},
  urldate = {2021-03-29},
  abstract = {Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of about 1.4 billion people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HKH region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower models) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Climate chage,economic impact analyses,Glaciers and climate,Hydrology & water resource,Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH)},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/CF5VC38M/Mishra et al. - 2020 - Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydro.pdf}
}

@article{pritchardAsiaShrinkingGlaciers2019,
  title = {Asia’s Shrinking Glaciers Protect Large Populations from Drought Stress},
  author = {Pritchard, Hamish D.},
  date = {2019-05},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {569},
  number = {7758},
  pages = {649--654},
  publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  issn = {1476-4687},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1240-1},
  urldate = {2021-03-11},
  abstract = {About 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from the thousands of glaciers in the high mountains of Asia. Water stress makes this region vulnerable to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that seasonal glacier meltwater is equivalent to the basic needs of 221~±~59 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus, Aral and Chu/Issyk-Kul river basins. This reduces the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large, rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins. Regional meltwater production is, however, unsustainably high—at 1.6 times the balance rate—and is expected to increase in future decades before ultimately declining. These results update and reinforce a previous publication in Nature on this topic, which was retracted after an inadvertent error was discovered.},
  issue = {7758},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/LZNVC5T6/Pritchard - 2019 - Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large population.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/9VRWPV5N/s41586-019-1240-1.html}
}

@article{ragettliContrastingClimateChange2016,
  title = {Contrasting Climate Change Impact on River Flows from High-Altitude Catchments in the {{Himalayan}} and {{Andes Mountains}}},
  author = {Ragettli, Silvan and Immerzeel, Walter W. and Pellicciotti, Francesca},
  date = {2016},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {113},
  number = {33},
  pages = {9222--9227},
  publisher = {{National Acad Sciences}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/VS9DF5RV/Ragettli et al. - 2016 - Contrasting climate change impact on river flows f.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/GNK645S2/9222.html}
}

@article{ramirezvillegasDownscalingGlobalCirculation2010,
  title = {Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method Decision and Policy Analysis {{Working Paper No}}. 1},
  shorttitle = {Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs},
  author = {Ramírez Villegas, Julián and Jarvis, Andy},
  date = {2010},
  publisher = {{International Center for Tropical Agriculture}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/J6MQDEZI/Ramírez Villegas and Jarvis - 2010 - Downscaling global circulation model outputs the .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/4FWB82Z6/90731.html}
}

@book{rgiconsortiumRandolphGlacierInventory2017,
  title = {Randolph Glacier Inventory–a Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0: Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space},
  shorttitle = {Randolph Glacier Inventory–a Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines},
  author = {{RGI Consortium}},
  date = {2017},
  publisher = {{Digital Media}},
  location = {{Colorado, USA}},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60}
}

@article{rounceGlacierMassChange2020,
  title = {Glacier {{Mass Change}} in {{High Mountain Asia Through}} 2100 {{Using}} the {{Open}}-{{Source Python Glacier Evolution Model}} ({{PyGEM}})},
  author = {Rounce, David R. and Hock, Regine and Shean, David E.},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
  shortjournal = {Front. Earth Sci.},
  volume = {7},
  publisher = {{Frontiers}},
  issn = {2296-6463},
  doi = {10.3389/feart.2019.00331},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00331/full},
  urldate = {2021-01-06},
  abstract = {Glaciers in High Mountain Asia are an important freshwater resource for large populations living downstream who rely on runoff for hydropower, irrigation, and municipal use. Projections of glacier mass change and runoff therefore have important socio-economic impacts. In this study, we use a new dataset of geodetic mass balance observations of almost all glaciers in the region to calibrate the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) using Bayesian inference. The new dataset enables the model to capture spatial variations in mass balance and the Bayesian inference enables the uncertainty associated with the model parameters to be quantified. Validation with historical mass balance observations shows the model performs well and the uncertainty is well captured. Projections of glacier mass change for 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) estimate that by the end of the century glaciers in High Mountain Asia will lose between 3311\% (RCP2.6) and 689\% (RCP8.5) of their total mass relative to 2015. Considerable spatial and temporal variability exists between regions due to the climate forcing and glacier characteristics (hypsometry, ice thickness, elevation range). Projections of annual glacier runoff reveal most monsoon-fed river basins (Ganges, Brahmaputra) will hit a maximum (peak water) prior to 2050, while the Indus and other westerlies-fed river basins will likely hit peak water after 2050 due to significant contributions from excess glacier meltwater. Monsoon-fed watersheds are projected to experience large reductions in end-of-summer glacier runoff. Uncertainties in projections at regional scales are dominated by the uncertainty associated with the climate forcing, while at the individual glacier level, uncertainties associated with model parameters can be significant.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Glacier runoff,glaciers,High Mountain Asia (HMA),mass balance,projections},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/YYTRRJDY/Rounce et al. - 2020 - Glacier Mass Change in High Mountain Asia Through .pdf}
}

@article{schaefliRoleGlacierRetreat2019,
  title = {The Role of Glacier Retreat for {{Swiss}} Hydropower Production},
  author = {Schaefli, Bettina and Manso, Pedro and Fischer, Mauro and Huss, Matthias and Farinotti, Daniel},
  date = {2019-03-01},
  journaltitle = {Renewable Energy},
  shortjournal = {Renewable Energy},
  volume = {132},
  pages = {615--627},
  issn = {0960-1481},
  doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2018.07.104},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118309017},
  urldate = {2021-03-30},
  abstract = {High elevation or high latitude hydropower production (HP) strongly relies on water resources that are influenced by glacier melt and are thus highly sensitive to climate warming. Despite of the wide-spread glacier retreat since the development of HP infrastructure in the 20th century, little quantitative information is available about the role of glacier mass loss for HP. In this paper, we provide the first regional quantification for the share of Alpine hydropower production that directly relies on the waters released by glacier mass loss, i.e. on the depletion of long-term ice storage that cannot be replenished by precipitation in the coming decades. Based on the case of Switzerland (which produces over 50\% of its electricity from hydropower), we show that since 1980, 3.0\%–4.0\% (1.0–1.4 TWh yr−1) of the country-scale hydropower production was directly provided by the net glacier mass loss and that this share is likely to reduce substantially by 2040–2060. For the period 2070–2090, a production reduction of about 1.0 TWh yr−1 is anticipated. The highlighted strong regional differences, both in terms of HP share from glacier mass loss and in terms of timing of production decline, emphasize the need for similar analyses in other Alpine or high latitude regions.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Alps,Climate change,Glacier mass balance,Hydrology,Hydropower},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/EU3HX9SV/Schaefli et al. - 2019 - The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower p.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/5WSNJSEI/S0960148118309017.html}
}

@article{schleussnerArmedconflictRisksEnhanced2016,
  title = {Armed-Conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-Related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalized Countries},
  author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Donges, Jonathan F. and Donner, Reik V. and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  date = {2016},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {113},
  number = {33},
  pages = {9216--9221},
  publisher = {{National Acad Sciences}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/6IC5DXAA/Schleussner et al. - 2016 - Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related d.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/APMT9B5I/9216.html}
}

@article{taborGloballyDownscaledClimate2010,
  title = {Globally Downscaled Climate Projections for Assessing the Conservation Impacts of Climate Change},
  author = {Tabor, Karyn and Williams, John W.},
  date = {2010},
  journaltitle = {Ecological Applications},
  volume = {20},
  number = {2},
  pages = {554--565},
  publisher = {{Wiley Online Library}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/PSBMWE2T/Tabor and Williams - 2010 - Globally downscaled climate projections for assess.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/TWMEFHDS/09-0173.html}
}

@article{taylorOverviewCMIP5Experiment2012,
  title = {An {{Overview}} of {{CMIP5}} and the {{Experiment Design}}},
  author = {Taylor, Karl E. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Meehl, Gerald A.},
  date = {2012-04-01},
  journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  volume = {93},
  number = {4},
  pages = {485--498},
  publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}},
  doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1},
  url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/93/4/bams-d-11-00094.1.xml},
  urldate = {2021-10-12},
  abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}p{$>$}The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/AVC2RLVX/Taylor et al. - 2012 - An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/4SNHU4YX/bams-d-11-00094.1.html}
}

@article{thornthwaiteApproachRationalClassification1948,
  title = {An {{Approach}} toward a {{Rational Classification}} of {{Climate}}},
  author = {Thornthwaite, C. W.},
  date = {1948},
  journaltitle = {Geographical Review},
  volume = {38},
  number = {1},
  eprint = {210739},
  eprinttype = {jstor},
  pages = {55--94},
  publisher = {{[American Geographical Society, Wiley]}},
  issn = {0016-7428},
  doi = {10.2307/210739}
}

@article{tielGlaciohydrologicalModelCalibration2020,
  title = {Glacio-Hydrological Model Calibration and Evaluation},
  author = {van Tiel, Marit and Stahl, Kerstin and Freudiger, Daphné and Seibert, Jan},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {WIREs Water},
  volume = {7},
  number = {6},
  pages = {e1483},
  issn = {2049-1948},
  doi = {10.1002/wat2.1483},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wat2.1483},
  urldate = {2021-04-29},
  abstract = {Glaciers are essential for downstream water resources. Hydrological modeling is necessary for a better understanding and for future projections of the water resources in these rapidly changing systems, but modeling glacierized catchments is especially challenging. Here we review a wealth of glacio-hydrological modeling studies (145 publications) in catchments around the world. Major model challenges include a high uncertainty in the input data, mainly precipitation, due to scarce observations. Consequently, the risk of wrongly compensating input with model errors in competing snow and ice accumulation and melt process parameterization is particularly high. Modelers have used a range of calibration and validation approaches to address this issue. The review revealed that while a large part ( 35\%) of the reviewed studies used only streamflow data to evaluate model performances, most studies ( 50\%) have used additional data related to snow and glaciers to constrain model parameters. These data were employed in a variety of calibration strategies, including stepwise and multi-signal calibration. Although the primary aim of glacio-hydrological modeling studies is to assess future climate change impacts, long-term changes have rarely been taken into account in model performance evaluations. Overall, a more precise description of which data are used how for model evaluation would facilitate the interpretation of the simulation results and their uncertainty, which in turn would support water resources management. Moreover, there is a need for systematic analyses of calibration approaches to disentangle what works best and why. Addressing this need will improve our system understanding and model simulations of glacierized catchments. This article is categorized under: Science of Water {$>$} Hydrological Processes Science of Water {$>$} Methods},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {calibration,glacierized catchments,glacio-hydrological modeling,streamflow,validation},
  annotation = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wat2.1483},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/7AEUR6PJ/Tiel et al. - 2020 - Glacio-hydrological model calibration and evaluati.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/V3ZPM74V/wat2.html}
}

@online{ulteeGlacialRunoffBuffers2020,
  type = {preprint},
  title = {Glacial Runoff Buffers Drought through the 21st Century---but Models Disagree on the Details},
  author = {Ultee, Lizz and Coats, Sloan},
  date = {2020-07-20},
  publisher = {{Earth and Space Science Open Archive}},
  doi = {10.1002/essoar.10502321.3},
  url = {http://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10502321.3},
  urldate = {2021-04-27},
  abstract = {Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying in the midlatitudes.  Recent glacier modeling suggests that runoff from glaciers will},
  langid = {english},
  organization = {{Earth and Space Science Open Archive}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/GMJXST7B/Ultee and Coats - 2020 - Glacial runoff buffers drought through the 21st ce.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/LV7XQPZV/essoar.10502321.html}
}

@incollection{vaughanObservationsCryosphere2013,
  title = {Observations: Cryosphere},
  booktitle = {Climate {{Change}} 2013: The {{Physical Science Basis}}. {{Contribution}} of {{Working Group I}} to the {{Fifth Assessment Report}} of the {{Intergovernmental Panel}} on {{Climate Change}}},
  author = {Vaughan, David G and Comiso, Josefino C and Allison, Ian and Carrasco, Jorge and Kaser, Georg and Kwok, Ronald and Mote, Philip and Murray, Tavi and Paul, Frank and Ren, Jiawen and Rignot, Eric and Solomina, Olga and Zhang, Tingjun and Arendt, Anthony A and Bahr, David B and Cogley, J Graham and Gardner, Alex S and Gerland, Sebastian and Gruber, Stephan and Haas, Christian and Hagen, Jon Ove and Hock, Regine and Holland, David and Huss, Matthias and Markus, Thorsten and Marzeion, Ben and Massom, Rob and Moholdt, Geir and Overduin, Pier Paul and Payne, Antony and Pfeffer, W Tad and Prowse, Terry and Radić, Valentina and Robinson, David and Sharp, Martin and Shiklomanov, Nikolay and Stammerjohn, Sharon and Velicogna, Isabella and Wadhams, Peter and Worby, Anthony and Zhao, Lin and Bamber, Jonathan and Huybrechts, Philippe and Lemke, Peter},
  date = {2013},
  pages = {66},
  publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  location = {{Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA}},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/UKFQ4Y9G/Vaughan et al. - 4 Observations Cryosphere.pdf}
}

@article{vergaraEconomicImpactsRapid2007,
  title = {Economic Impacts of Rapid Glacier Retreat in the {{Andes}}},
  author = {Vergara, Walter and Deeb, Alejandro and Valencia, Adriana and Bradley, Raymond and Francou, Bernard and Zarzar, Alonso and Grünwaldt, Alfred and Haeussling, Seraphine},
  date = {2007},
  journaltitle = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
  volume = {88},
  number = {25},
  pages = {261--264},
  publisher = {{Wiley Online Library}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/U9WX9RQ2/Vergara et al. - 2007 - Economic impacts of rapid glacier retreat in the A.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/RY4S8PHH/2007EO250001.html}
}

@article{vicente-serranoMultiscalarDroughtIndex2010a,
  title = {A {{Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive}} to {{Global Warming}}: The {{Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index}}},
  shorttitle = {A {{Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive}} to {{Global Warming}}},
  author = {Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and Beguería, Santiago and López-Moreno, Juan I.},
  date = {2010-04-01},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Climate},
  volume = {23},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1696--1718},
  publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}},
  issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
  doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1},
  url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/7/2009jcli2909.1.xml},
  urldate = {2021-05-18},
  abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d62570780e76"{$>$}Abstract{$<$}/h2{$><$}p{$>$}The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an increase in drought severity associated with higher water demand as a result of evapotranspiration. Relative to the sc-PDSI, the SPEI has the advantage of being multiscalar, which is crucial for drought analysis and monitoring.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/X2373QDX/Vicente-Serrano et al. - 2010 - A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Wa.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/KJXI899T/2009jcli2909.1.html}
}

@article{viviroliIntroductionHydrologicalModelling2009,
  title = {An Introduction to the Hydrological Modelling System {{PREVAH}} and Its Pre- and Post-Processing-Tools},
  author = {Viviroli, D. and Zappa, M. and Gurtz, J. and Weingartner, R.},
  date = {2009-10-01},
  journaltitle = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
  shortjournal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
  volume = {24},
  number = {10},
  pages = {1209--1222},
  issn = {1364-8152},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815209000875},
  urldate = {2021-03-30},
  abstract = {Spatially distributed modelling is an important instrument for studying the hydrological cycle, both concerning its present state as well as possible future changes in climate and land use. Results of such simulations are particularly relevant for the fields of water resources, natural hazards and hydropower. The semi-distributed hydrological modelling system PREVAH (PREecipitation-Runoff-EVApotranspiration HRU Model) implements a conceptual process-oriented approach and has been developed especially to suit conditions in mountainous environments with their highly variable environmental and climatic conditions. This article presents an overview of the actual model core of PREVAH and introduces the various tools which have been developed for obtaining a comprehensive, user-friendly modelling system: DATAWIZARD for importing and managing hydrometeorological data, WINMET for pre-processing meteorological data, GRIDMATH for carrying out elementary raster data operations, FAOSOIL for processing FAO World Soil Map information, WINHRU for pre-processing spatial data and aggregating hydrological response units (HRU), WINPREVAH for operating the model, HYDROGRAPH for visualising hydrograph data and VIEWOPTIM for visualising the calibration procedure. The PREVAH components introduced here support a modelling task from pre-processing the data over the actual model calibration and validation to visualising and interpreting the results (post-processing). A brief overview of current PREVAH applications demonstrates the flexibility of the modelling system with examples that range from water balance modelling over flood estimation and flood forecasting to drought analysis in Switzerland, Austria, China, Russia and Sweden.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {HBV-type model,Hydrological modelling,Hydrological response units,Model calibration,Modelling system,Mountain hydrology,Post-processing,Pre-processing,Process-based model},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/38NC4CGH/Viviroli et al. - 2009 - An introduction to the hydrological modelling syst.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/MZ98KHYK/S1364815209000875.html}
}

@article{zappaSeasonalWaterBalance2003,
  title = {Seasonal Water Balance of an {{Alpine}} Catchment as Evaluated by Different Methods for Spatially Distributed Snowmelt Modelling},
  author = {Zappa, M. and Pos, F. and Strasser, U. and Warmerdam, P. and Gurtz, J.},
  date = {2003},
  journaltitle = {Hydrology Research},
  volume = {34},
  number = {3},
  pages = {179--202},
  publisher = {{IWA Publishing}},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/7CEJLVLI/Zappa et al. - 2003 - Seasonal water balance of an Alpine catchment as e.pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/VC6H6CBK/Seasonal-Water-Balance-of-an-Alpine-Catchment-as.html}
}

@article{zekollariModellingFutureEvolution2019,
  title = {Modelling the Future Evolution of Glaciers in the {{European Alps}} under the {{EURO}}-{{CORDEX RCM}} Ensemble},
  author = {Zekollari, Harry and Huss, Matthias and Farinotti, Daniel},
  date = {2019-04-09},
  journaltitle = {The Cryosphere},
  volume = {13},
  number = {4},
  pages = {1125--1146},
  publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  issn = {1994-0416},
  doi = {10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019},
  url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/1125/2019/},
  urldate = {2021-03-16},
  abstract = {{$<$}p{$><$}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{$>$}Abstract.{$<$}/strong{$>$} Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. The future evolution of these glaciers is driven by surface mass balance and ice flow processes, of which the latter is to date not included explicitly in regional glacier projections for the Alps. Here, we model the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps with GloGEMflow, an extended version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), in which both surface mass balance and ice flow are explicitly accounted for. The mass balance model is calibrated with glacier-specific geodetic mass balances and forced with high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The evolution of the total glacier volume in the coming decades is relatively similar under the various representative concentrations pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), with volume losses of about 47\&thinsp;\%–52\&thinsp;\% in 2050 with respect to 2017. We find that under RCP2.6, the ice loss in the second part of the 21st century is relatively limited and that about one-third (36.8\&thinsp;\%\&thinsp;±\&thinsp;11.1\&thinsp;\%, multi-model mean ±1\emph{σ}) of the present-day (2017) ice volume will still be present in 2100. Under a strong warming (RCP8.5) the future evolution of the glaciers is dictated by a substantial increase in surface melt, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear by 2100 (94.4±4.4\&thinsp;\% volume loss vs. 2017). For a given RCP, differences in future changes are mainly determined by the driving global climate model (GCM), rather than by the RCM, and these differences are larger than those arising from various model parameters (e.g. flow parameters and cross-section parameterisation). We find that under a limited warming, the inclusion of ice dynamics reduces the projected mass loss and that this effect increases with the glacier elevation range, implying that the inclusion of ice dynamics is likely to be important for global glacier evolution projections.{$<$}/p{$>$}},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/erik/Zotero/storage/6E3ISAY8/Zekollari et al. - 2019 - Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the .pdf;/home/erik/Zotero/storage/34XL5ERJ/2019.html}
}